Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Randwick Kensington on Wednesday, July 1st.
Racing in Sydney will once again be conducted on heavy ground, but this track should play a whole lot fairer than what we were dished up at Canterbury last Wednesday.
Find Tim Geers' preview and betting tips for the seven-race card below!
Best Bet: Race 6 – (8) Le Gai Soleil
Best Value: Race 7 – (8) So Wicked
Keen to follow (1) Escape Artist here, who comes into this having run 2nd on debut at Warwick Farm two weeks ago. I thought the run was good and I think she’ll improve on the Kensington track today. Mark Newnham operates at 10% at Warwick Farm but has a 21% strike rate here at Randwick Kensington so there’s reason to believe this filly can improve on this track. She debuted on a heavy 9 so the conditions are no worry, but I do hope to see her ridden a touch closer to the speed like she was in her trials. $5.50 looks slightly better odds than I’d have her. (11) Giovanna Run looks the danger for mine and is probably worth having something on at $5.50 too. She’s only raced once, which was back on the course proper at Randwick on Boxing Day. The form out of that race is fairly decent and she’s trialled well leading into her reappearance today. JMac takes the ride from barrier 1 so expect her to be ridden positively. (4) My Ruby Girl is Waller’s other runner in the race and has trialled well, while Theresa Bateup’s runner (6) Stryke ‘Em Onesie can go well at big odds. I’ll be taking on (3) La Girl on stable debut for Kris Lees, despite her coming out of some strong races in Melbourne when formerly with Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig. Backing Escape Artist and saving on Giovanna Run.
I’ll be with the Hawkes debutant (12) Wild Wind here. He’s had three trials leading into his first run today, with his past two being wins at Rosehill over 900m. He’s really had to earn those trial wins, being put under pressure and under the whip in both, but he chased a bit better with the blinkers applied in his most recent one, and they stay on for race day. Tommy Berry was due to ride but he’s out for the day so a replacement rider will have to be found. Expect him to settle up on speed and the Hawkes team go well on the Kensington track, so I expect him to give a good showing. (9) Sharpshooter might be over the odds at $13. He ran 2nd to Anders on debut, who then came out and won a Saturday race, and his last start had plenty of merit to it. He was caught wide early, sat outside the leader but wanted to go quicker with the blinkers on, and then as soon as he settled, he had another horse come to his outside and put more pressure on. He stuck on OK for 3rd and he gets the winkers on to replace the blinkers today, which hopefully lets him settle a bit better. (5) Gemology comes to town off a recent trial win at Hawkesbury. He’s taken plenty of time to get to the races but I probably wouldn’t let him get under your guard here at $15. The stable has a particularly good record on the Kensington surface and their juveniles shouldn’t be underestimated. (2) Gunnamatta was good on debut and should be right thereabouts once again.
Will be looking a bit wide here as I can make a case against a few high up in the market. (12) Satin Ruby makes her first start on this side of the Tasman after having her first two in New Zealand. She ran 3rd on debut before winning her next start. Her trials over here have been a bit underwhelming but hopefully they have her spot on for race day, as this race is there for the taking. She’ll likely be back in the field but she showed a good turn of foot back in New Zealand and the $11 is a good enough price for me to have something on. (15) Chervil is currently $15 and I think she’ll start half that on the day. She won her first career start at Kembla in a small field and now tackles midweek metro grade. Barrier 1 should allow her to land further forward in the run and she has already showed she will handle the conditions. (14) Duenna has been a very costly conveyance for punters but she’ll get a great run from the barrier and I’ve already made mention of how well the stable go at this track. She seems a bit of a tease but she also hasn’t had the greatest luck in a number of her starts. I probably won’t be losing on her at $9.00. I wouldn’t be getting too carried away in this race but could definitely talk you into having small bets on all three of those mentioned above at $11, $15 and $9.00 respectively.
(9) Invinciano could be a bit over the odds at $9.00 here. Completely forget she went around first up when she settled last and off the rail. It’s physically impossible at the moment to win at Canterbury if you’re not on the rails during the run, so the run Invinciano got was just about the worst you could hope for. She’s run well in both starts when second up previously, and she won here at Kensington last preparation over 1550m. Draws well in barrier 3 and can go well. (7) This Is So resumes from a year off the track with two trials under the belt. It’s always a concern running first up on heavy ground off such a long spell but he showed plenty in his first few starts to suggest he’s got a bit of talent. Having something on at $7.50. (8) Military Academy picks up James McDonald third up today so should be included, while (6) Darleb is racing well and has obvious claims.
Pretty keen to back two horses here. (11) Secretly gets an ideal set up here, third up from a spell and dropping back from Saturday grade to midweek company. She ran well behind Lando Bay last start and should be absolutely spot on fitness-wise for this. I don’t expect the heavy track to be a problem and I think there’s a query with the favourite so the $4.20 looks a good bet. We just need her to gain a run as she’s currently first emergency. (9) Tochi is the other horse I’ll be backing, currently at $7.00. He was defeated as favourite first up at Kembla Grange but he always seems to need that run. He’s had three starts for zero placings when first up, but has a win and a 2nd from two starts when second up. Expect him to come across to try and sit outside the leader from the wide gate and from there he should be in it for a long way. The favourite is (10) Savigne but you will not find a horse who was more blessed than him last start when he won at Canterbury. It’s impossible to win if you’re not on the rail during the run at Canterbury right now, and this horse got the perfect run behind the leader on the rail and had absolutely everything go his way. JMac jumps off and for mine he is a huge query and a false favourite here.
(8) Le Gai Soleil looks the best bet of the day here. She was unconvincing as the $1.40 favourite first up at Canberra but she really showed her true ability with a dominant win at Kembla Grange last start, bolting in by 3.3L on the heavy 10. She comes to midweek metro grade now and so long as she gets a decent run from barrier 12, I expect her to win again. John O’Shea has 10 winners from 33 runners here at Kensington this season and he books James McDonald for the ride. Obviously the conditions won’t bother her at all so it’s hard to make any excuses. (2) Dalmatia Prince is the one that looks over the odds at $18. This horse peaks third up from a spell, with six placings from eight starts at this stage of his campaign. He’s had two starts at this track and distance for a win and a 3rd, he handles wet ground well enough and should be right up on speed.
The market will be interesting with (8) So Wicked here, first up in Australia for Waller/McDonald. Her trial was very good at Rosehill and she will have no trouble with the heavy ground, so long as the rail isn’t complete quicksand. First up with one trial is a little query but JMac does jump off a last-start winner from the same stable in order to ride her, so I’d expect her to be going pretty close in this. (3) Best Stone is also first up for John Thompson and Nash Rawiller, who are always a combo to take notice of. The filly has never finished out of the placings from seven career starts and her trials have been good. She will handle the conditions but will need to be good from barrier 14 with 60kg first up. Will be backing So Wicked and saving on Best Stone.
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