The first game on NRL Super Saturday heads down to Canberra with the Raiders hosting the Roosters. A rejuvenated Raiders team have jumped their opponents here and sit higher than them on the ladder follow recent performances. The Roosters will be out to prove a point though and gain any ascendency which would be helpful towards the business end of the season.
As usual, Before You Bet is here to take an in depth look at what lies ahead and assist you with finding a winner or two to add to your viewing enjoyment.
NRL Round 12 Preview & Betting Tips
Canberra Raiders vs Sydney Roosters
GIO Stadium – Saturday 25th May – 3pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Raiders opened Magic Round with a spirited 24-20 win over the Bulldogs. Heading into the game as outsiders, they started strong but conceded 3 tries in 10 minutes to trail 14-12 at HT. An improved second half gave them a chance at building back into the contest; with just a 45% share of possession and 74% completion rate, they made things difficult for themselves. Despite averaging 10.6m per carry, they made almost 300m less than their opponents. They will also need to improve defensively, allowing 6 line breaks and missing 37 tackles.
The Roosters were defeated 38-30 by the Sharks in a high-quality and thrilling contest. In an example of two Finals teams doing what they do best, The Roosters led at HT 24-18 on the back of some impressive play. They struggled in the second half to stop the momentum of the Sharks, conceding 3 converted tries, while only scoring one of their own. They gave themselves a chance through with an 84% completion rate with just a 49% share of possession. Carrying the ball strongly (9.3m per carry), they also lead PCM’s, had 6 line breaks but missed 33 tackles. Inherently aware of what needs to improve each week, the Roosters will be out to make amends for their loss in that contest.
Match Prediction
The Raiders will be hoping that every bit of their home ground advantage (59% vs 37%) will swing momentum in their favour because most other factors appear to be working against them. They have an inferior attacking record (21ppg vs 29ppg) compared to their opponents and while their defensive statistics (22ppg vs 19ppg) are closer, the Roosters still have an edge. The home team has won just 3 of the past 10 matches between these two sides also. When it comes to team news, the loss of Papali’I hurts the Raiders in the middle.
The Roosters have a made a habit this season of pressuring teams in the middle before swinging the ball wide to their strong outside backs. The visitors are also boosted by the return of Manu, who will offer experience, flair, and poise in equal measure. These factors are reflected in the odds ($4.20 vs $1.23) with most expecting that the loss for the Roosters last week will be a catalyst for this team to bounce back to winning form. It is an interesting test too; a road trip to Canberra as strong favourites has bought many a side undone in the past. This shouldn’t be the case here though, the Roosters are a strong team; you only have to look as far as the NRL Power Rankings to see their value.
With the average winning margin of the past 5 games being 13.2 points, the Roosters should cover the line on offer and prove that the Raiders still have a way to go to compete with the leading teams in the competition.
Roosters -11.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
The past 5 matches have seen an average of 47.6 points scored and season stats suggests this could be high also. Manu is the equal leading try scorer for the Roosters (with Young) and will want to make a statement upon his return. Crichton has been fantastic in recent weeks and will want to make one last push for selection in Origin.
Total Points over 43.5
Manu to Score
Crichton to Score
SGM Odds: $10 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
