Saturday evening at Accor Stadium gives us one of the clearest total plays of the round, as South Sydney host Cronulla in a matchup that screams points. Both teams are averaging over 30 points per game, neither defence profiles as elite, and both sides have enough attacking strike to turn ordinary field position into quick scoreboard pressure. When the total is sitting at 53.5 and my fair number is closer to 58.5, there is only one way I want to play it.
The team lists only strengthen that view. South Sydney welcome Jye Gray back at fullback and have strike power across the park, despite the losses of Jack Wighton and Jamie Humphreys. Cronulla have Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall together in the halves, Addin Fonua-Blake leading the pack, and KL Iro coming off a monster performance last week. The Sharks have named an unchanged side from their big win over the Tigers, with Jesse Ramien and Ronaldo Mulitalo still sidelined but moving closer to returns.
Let's break it all down!
Rabbitohs vs Sharks Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 10
Rabbitohs Attack Still Firing
South Sydney’s 42-38 loss to Newcastle last week was chaotic, controversial and wildly entertaining, which is exactly why this week’s total is so appealing. The Rabbitohs trailed 28-10 early in the second half, somehow fought back to lead 38-36 with seven minutes remaining, and then still found a way to lose when Trey Mooney crossed late for the Knights. It was an absurd game, but it also reinforced the clearest thing about Souths right now: they can score, but they are not stopping enough.
The attack has genuine variety. Cody Walker remains dangerous when he gets early ball, Latrell Mitchell can create momentum from nothing, Jye Gray’s return adds speed and support play from the back, and Alex Johnston remains one of the best finishers in the game. Even when Souths look messy, they have enough individual class to turn broken sets into points. That is a massive factor in overs betting, because they do not need perfect structure to contribute to a high total.
The concern, of course, is the defence. South Sydney have repeatedly allowed teams to jump them or punch back hard once momentum shifts. Against Newcastle they conceded 42, and although there were some strange moments and controversy, the broader defensive issue was still obvious. They can lose the ruck, they can get stretched on the edges, and they can be dragged into games where both teams are trading tries.
Against Cronulla, that is exactly the danger. The Sharks are not a side you want to invite into a shootout unless you are comfortable scoring 30-plus yourself. Thankfully for the over, Souths probably are.
Sharks Finally Unleash
Cronulla’s 52-10 demolition of the Tigers was one of the most brutal attacking performances of the season, and it came at exactly the right time after consecutive losses to the Roosters and Cowboys. The Sharks were under pressure coming into the game, but they answered emphatically, running away with it in the second half and reminding everyone that their attack can still be devastating when the ruck speed and shape line up.
KL Iro and Teig Wilton both scored hat tricks, while Nicho Hynes piled on the points with a try and eight goals from nine attempts. The Tigers lost Adam Doueihi early to a shoulder injury, which clearly hurt them, but Cronulla still had to execute, and they did. The Sharks were sharp through the middle, ruthless on the edges, and clinical once they smelled blood.
That performance matters for this week because it should restore attacking confidence. Cronulla had been wobbling defensively and mentally, but their attack has never been the major concern. With Hynes and Trindall controlling shape, Fonua-Blake bending the middle, and Iro in red hot form, they have the tools to expose a South Sydney defensive line that has been far too loose.
The only hesitation with Cronulla is that their own defence is not elite either. They have conceded too many points in poor patches this season and can get dragged into loose, high tempo games. Again, that suits the bet. If the Sharks score as expected and still concede in the mid-20s, the over is in a terrific position.
Rabbitohs vs Sharks Recent History
These teams met twice in 2025, and both games are useful for varied reasons. Cronulla beat South Sydney 27-12 in Round 3 at Shark Park, while the Round 21 clash at Accor was a much tighter, lower scoring contest with both teams scoring two tries. That later game showed the matchup can be controlled when both sides respect field position, but the 2026 versions of these teams are far more attack heavy and far less trustworthy defensively.
Recent results:
2025 Round 21: Sharks def Rabbitohs 14-12
2025 Round 3: Sharks def Rabbitohs 27-12
2024 Round 22: Sharks def Rabbitohs 20-6
2024 Round 6: Sharks def Rabbitohs 34-22
2023 Round 23: Sharks def Rabbitohs 26-16
The Sharks have won the past five, can Latrell and the Bunnies exact some revenge?
Over Looks the Obvious Play
This is one of those totals where I don’t want to overthink it. The Rabbitohs and Sharks are both averaging more than 30 points per game, and neither side has a defensive profile that justifies a total sitting in the low-to-mid 50s. My fair number is 58.5, so at 53.5 there is enough room to attack.
The shape of the game also points toward points. South Sydney are at their best when they play quickly and let their stars take advantage of broken defensive lines. Cronulla are at their best when Hynes and Trindall get front foot ball and bring their powerful edges into the game. Both teams should get chances, and both teams are good enough to convert those chances into tries rather than just territory.
The risk with any over is that the game starts slow, but even that doesn’t bother me too much here. These teams can score quickly enough to recover from a quiet opening 15 minutes. The Sharks can pile on points in bunches, as they showed last week, and Souths have repeatedly found themselves in games where momentum swings produce multiple tries in short periods.
Defensively, I don’t trust either side. Souths conceded 42 to Newcastle. Cronulla have had recent games where their defensive standards have fallen away badly. If either team gets to 30, the other side only needs to contribute in the low-to-mid 20s to give this bet a great chance. That feels not only possible, but likely.
This should be played fast, loose and with plenty of edge attack. Over 53.5 is the standout.
Over 53.5 points
$1.91 (2 Units)
Rabbitohs vs Sharks Player Prop Bet
Tallis Duncan continues to look unreal on the edge, with four tries over the past two games. With points expected, I’ll take the rangy back rower at great odds.
Tallis Duncan (1+ try)
$3.20
Rabbitohs vs Sharks Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Over 53.5 points – See best bet.
Leg 2 T Duncan (1+ try) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: T Wilton (1+ try) – Been in great try scoring form, much like Tallis Duncan, and with Nicho Hynes playing more on the left lately, his stock has never been higher.
SGM Odds: $12.14 at Ladbrokes
Rabbitohs vs Sharks Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, 9th May
Location: Accor Stadium – Sydney Olympic Park
Time: 5:30pm AEST
Weather: Fine, 17 degrees
Odds: Rabbitohs ($1.73) vs Sharks ($2.10)
Line: Rabbitohs (-1.5)
Points: 53.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
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