Super Saturday in AFL Round 11 features four fixtures, with one of those being a 7:35pm AEST matchup between North Melbourne and Collingwood at Marvel Stadium. The Kangaroos are fresh off a rare win and remain in 17th place, while the Magpies are sitting pretty at the top of the ladder.
We bring you our full match preview, best bet, prop bet, and Same Game Multi for the Kangaroos vs Magpies below, and if you’re keen to tail our tips, consider joining BoomBet for great odds!
North Melbourne vs Collingwood Prediction & Tips: 2025 AFL Round 11
How the Magpies have soared into Premiership Favouritism
Collingwood enters this match in ominous form, solidifying their status as the team to beat in 2025. Currently sitting atop the ladder with betting agencies listing them as short-priced $4.50 favourites for the flag, their recent performances have been characterized by a potent midfield, a miserly defence, and an ability to win crucial moments. While they experienced a tight loss to Geelong recently, their overall body of work, including strong wins against Adelaide and Fremantle, showcases a team with a ruthless edge and a deep well of talent. The Magpies' slick ball movement and formidable forward pressure have overwhelmed most opponents this season, and they will undoubtedly look to assert their dominance early against the Kangaroos. Their premiership ambitions are clear, and maintaining their momentum against a lower-ranked side will be paramount.
Key Cog Curtis Returns for the Kangaroos
North Melbourne, however, will be far from a pushover. The Kangaroos have displayed encouraging signs in recent weeks, including a hard-fought draw against Brisbane, narrow losses to Essendon and Port Adelaide, and a stirring victory over Richmond. This improved form coincides with the much-anticipated return of dynamic forward Paul Curtis. After serving a three-match suspension, Curtis, who had impressively booted 18 goals in his first seven outings of the season, slots straight back into the side. His presence provides another dangerous target in a forward line that is beginning to click and will be crucial in stretching the Magpies' defence. Coach Alastair Clarkson appears to have instilled greater resilience and defensive solidity in the young group, and they will relish the opportunity to test themselves against the competition's benchmark.
Key Stats to Consider
Delving into the advanced statistics, several key indicators point towards a potentially closer contest than ladder positions might suggest. North Melbourne's recent defensive improvement has been impressive, conceding an average of just 77 points in their last four matches, ranking them fifth in the league over that period. Furthermore, the Kangaroos have a strong recent record of covering the betting line against the Magpies, achieving this in their last four encounters. Collingwood, conversely, has only covered the line in 38% of their games against bottom-six teams since the start of 2023. While the Magpies boast superior overall season metrics in areas like disposal efficiency and inside 50s, North Melbourne's increased contested possession numbers and clearance work in recent fixtures suggest they can challenge Collingwood in the engine room.
Kangaroos or Magpies? Here's our North Melbourne vs Collingwood Tip
While an outright Collingwood victory is the most probable outcome, the Kangaroos appear well-equipped to make this a genuine contest. The +33.5 point spread for North Melbourne seems particularly enticing. There's a precedent for the Magpies perhaps not bringing their absolute A-game against lower-ranked opposition, as evidenced in last year's encounter where North Melbourne stormed to a significant lead before Collingwood scraped home by a solitary point. With Curtis back to sharpen their attack and a growing belief within the Kangaroos' ranks, coupled with Collingwood's less convincing record at covering large handicaps against developing sides, expect North Melbourne to fight tooth and nail. The Magpies might be the premiership favourites, but the Kangaroos have the tenacity and the recent form to keep this clash tighter than many anticipate, making them a strong chance to cover the spread.
North Melbourne +33.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
North Melbourne vs Collingwood Player Prop Bet: Curtis, Returns with a Bang!
Our Best Player Prop: Paul Curtis 2+ Goals
Curtis was in sublime form before copping a lengthy suspension, so he’ll be eager to get back out there and put on a show. He was the All-Australian small forward before missing the last three weeks and I expect his elite form to continue against the Magpies. Curtis has kicked 18 goals from seven matches this season and has kicked at least two goals in every match. Curtis remains great value and is certainly worth backing in here.
Paul Curtis 2+ Goals
$1.99 (2 Units)
North Melbourne vs Collingwood: Same Game Multi
Paul Curtis 2+ Goals: As mentioned above, he’s in All-Australian level form this season and is great odds.
Cam Zurhaar 2+ Goals: After a slow start to the season, Zurhaar has hit his straps over the past four weeks with 2, 2, 2, and 4 goals.
Josh Daicos 25+ Disposals: Continues to rack up big disposal numbers in his role across half back. Averaging over 27 per game and has had 25+ in 8/10 matches.
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North Melbourne vs Collingwood Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, 24th May
Time: 7:35pm AEST
Location: Marvel Stadium
Weather: 18 degrees and perfect conditions under the roof
Odds: North Melbourne ($5.00) vs Collingwood ($1.17)
Line: Collingwood -32.5
Points: 175.5
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Where To Watch North Melbourne vs Collingwood?
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