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2024 AFL Round 14 Preview & Betting Tips
North Melbourne vs Collingwood
Sunday 1:00pm AEST, June 16th, Marvel Stadium
North Melbourne broke an eleven game losing streak with a nine point win over West Coast at Optus Stadium. The Kangaroos led by 33 points early in the last quarter before conceding six straight goals that saw the Eagles hit the front late. The Roos steadied with clutch goals from Jye Simpkin and Paul Curtis sealing a desperately needed victory.
Collingwood continue to find a way despite a massive injury list, producing a professional performance in 38 point victory over Melbourne on King’s Birthday. The Pies led from start to finish, and although the Demons won a lot of the key statistics, Collingwood never looked threatened.
Both sides have made one change this week with mid season draft pick Brynn Teakle making his North Melbourne debut replacing Wil Dawson. Tew Jiath makes his AFL debut, replacing Jack Bytel who has been omitted.
Collingwood brought a level of pressure that was synonymous with them in 2023, recording 20 more tackles than the Demons. The Pies are the number one ranked tackling team in the competition, which has kept them in plenty of games despite missing so many key players.
As expected with a side that is on the bottom of the ladder, the Kangaroos are the lowest scoring team in the competition averaging just 65 points per game. North Melbourne are also the worst defensive side in the competition conceding 113 points per game. Last week was the first time the Roos didn’t concede 100 points in a game this season, however it was helped significantly by West Coast kicking 8.17.
The Kangaroos also have big deficiencies at the coalface ranking 17th in the league for contested possessions which has been a big contributor to why they’re ranked 18th for inside 50’s as they have not been able to win the ball at the source and get it going their way.
On the other hand the Pies are ranked 4th in the AFL for contested possessions and If Collingwood brings the level of pressure they’ve brought over the last month, North Melbourne won’t be able to cope.
Match Prediction: Although it was big for North to finally get a win on the board, reality will set in for the Kangaroos against a high quality outfit in Collingwood. Collingwood have had the wood over North Melbourne in recent years, winning six of their last seven games against the Roos.
The Kangaroos have had an average losing margin of 52 points across their 11 losses this season, with seven losses by over 44 points. Despite missing important personnel, the Pies system continues to stand up week after week, and will be far too strong for North Melbourne.
Collingwood -40.5
$1.90 (1.15 Units)
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Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals: Nick Daicos was subbed out with a calf knock last week and will be looking to bounce back with another big performance in what has been a stellar season. Daicos is averaging 30 disposals per game, and recorded 32 disposals in his last outing against the Roos.
Jack Crisp 25+ Disposals: Jack Crisp was best on ground against Melbourne last week, and has lifted in the last five weeks after a quiet start to the year. Crisp is averaging 25 disposals per game over the last five games, with more midfield minutes given Collingwood’s injury list.
Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals: Davies-Uniacke continues to shoulder the load in a struggling North Melbourne side, averaging 27 disposals per game in 2024. LDU has recorded 25 or more touches in five of his last six games, and in ten of his 12 games this season.
SGM Odds: $3.60 at BoomBet
