NRL Round 25 closes at Allianz Stadium with the biggest mismatch on the card, as the first placed Roosters take on a Wests Tigers side sitting near the bottom of the competition. The market agrees, installing Sydney as a massive 22.5-point favourite, and while spreads this large always bring diminishing returns, I am still prepared to lay the number.
The Roosters moved to the top of the ladder with a superb 12-6 win over Penrith last week and are chasing a ninth consecutive victory. James Tedesco returns after two matches out with an ankle injury, giving the competition leaders another major boost as they push toward the minor premiership. Wests, meanwhile, lost another close game 24-22 to the Dragons and now lose Adam Doueihi for the remainder of the season due to shoulder surgery. Jock Madden returns at halfback.
This is not the type of spread I want to attack with a huge stake. Once you get beyond three converted tries, a late consolation score or a favourite easing off can destroy a bet that has otherwise been correct for 75 minutes.
Still, the gap between these teams is enormous. Sydney have won 18 of their past 20 meetings with Wests, and the Tigers are facing the hottest team in the competition.
Roosters vs Tigers Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 25
Roosters Claim Top Spot with Statement Win
Sydney’s 12-6 victory over Penrith was arguably their most impressive win of the season. The Roosters did not need a high scoring attacking performance; instead, they rediscovered the “Bondi Wall” and held the Panthers to a single try in a genuine finals contest.
Daly Cherry-Evans was outstanding, scoring both Roosters tries and controlling the match with the composure Sydney recruited him to provide. The veteran produced one of his best performances of the season in what was also another milestone appearance, while the Roosters absorbed prolonged periods of Penrith pressure without cracking.
The result pushed Sydney above Penrith and into first place, extending their winning streak to eight. Now they get Tedesco back.
Cody Ramsey has done an excellent job at fullback, but Tedesco remains the central figure in Sydney’s yardage and support play. His return gives the Roosters another layer of attacking threat around Cherry-Evans and Sam Walker, while Reece Robson continues to provide ruck control from hooker.
The forward rotation also looks capable of overwhelming Wests. Naufahu Whyte and Spencer Leniu start up front, Victor Radley locks the scrum, and Lindsay Collins comes from the bench alongside Connor Watson and the Butcher brothers.
The danger in this matchup is complacency. Sydney have just beaten their biggest premiership rival and now face the worst team in the NRL right now. Trent Robinson will be determined to ensure his side does not treat this as an automatic win.
That concern should be eased by the minor premiership race. Every point still matters, and the Roosters cannot afford to waste a favourable matchup.
Tigers Keep Competing Without Winning
Wests went down 24-22 to the Dragons last Sunday, their latest narrow defeat in a season where the wheels have largely fallen off since the middle stages. Both sides scored four tries, with goal kicking ultimately proving the difference.
There were at least signs of fight. Since the disastrous 56-10 loss to Canberra in Round 21, the Tigers have been more competitive and have avoided the massive defensive collapses that dominated the previous month. That matters when assessing a 22.5-point spread.
The problem is that their team list has weakened again. Doueihi is done for the season and will undergo shoulder surgery, removing one of the visitor’s main attacking and kicking options. Madden returns at halfback for his first NRL game since Round 18 and partners Jarome Luai. Alex Twal also returns at lock after missing last week through illness, while Sunia Turuva is carrying a knee issue and has been named on the interchange.
There is still enough talent to score. Jahream Bula remains dangerous from fullback, Luai can create opportunities on the left edge and Api Koroisau is one of the best dummy halves in the competition. Terrell May and Fonua Pole can generate yardage through the middle.
But defensive consistency remains the major concern. Facing Tedesco, Cherry-Evans, Walker, Robson and a powerful Roosters pack is a different challenge entirely from the Dragons.
The Tigers’ best chance of covering is to stay attached early, frustrate Sydney and turn this into a low tempo contest. If the Roosters lead by 18 or 20 with half an hour remaining, the Tigers may not have enough resistance to stop the margin blowing out.
Roosters vs Tigers Recent History
The major warning for favourite backers is last season’s meeting, when Wests produced a stunning 30-28 upset at Allianz Stadium after building an early 20-0 lead.
Recent results:
• 2025 Round 18: Tigers def Roosters 30-28
• 2024 Round 17: Roosters def Tigers 40-6
• 2023 Round 26: Roosters def Tigers 32-8
• 2022 Round 23: Roosters def Tigers 72-6
• 2021 Round 2: Roosters def Tigers 40-6
Outside last year’s shock result, this rivalry has been overwhelmingly one sided. Sydney have won 18 of the past 20 meetings.
Big Number, Bigger Class Gap
There is no pretending -22.5 is a comfortable spread. At this level, you are asking almost everything to go right. Sydney can dominate for 70 minutes, concede one meaningless late try and suddenly the bet becomes a sweat. That is why the stake needs to remain controlled.
But if I must pick a side, it can only be the Roosters. They are first on the ladder, riding an eight-game winning streak and now regain Tedesco. Wests are playing out another lost season, have lost Doueihi and are facing a team whose defensive performance against Penrith last week looked finals ready.
The Roosters should dominate field position through Cherry-Evans and Walker. Their forwards should win the middle, allowing Robson to attack retreating markers. Once the Tigers compress, Tedesco and the Roosters’ edges should create repeated opportunities.
The Tigers can absolutely score enough to make this uncomfortable. Luai, Bula and Koroisau remain quality attacking players, and Wests have won their past two games at Allianz Stadium. But the broader matchup is brutal.
The Roosters also have incentive beyond simply collecting the two points. They are chasing the minor premiership and will know points differential could still matter in the final rounds. This is exactly the type of matchup where a top team should look to put its foot down rather than cruise to a 16-point win.
The market has adjusted accordingly, which means there is no massive mathematical edge. This is more a bet on class, momentum and the likelihood the Tigers eventually crack under sustained pressure.
The Roosters have beaten the Tigers by 34, 24 and 66 points in three of the previous four meetings before last year’s upset. I expect something much closer to those dominant results than a repeat of 2025.
Small stake because of the huge handicap, but I’ll lay it.
Roosters (-22.5)
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
Roosters vs Tigers Player Prop Bet
Sam Walker could well put on a cricket score on his own on Sunday, with the Roosters’ half likely to prove far too classy for the Tigers here. Already has 9 tries this season.
Roosters vs Tigers Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Roosters (-22.5) – See above best bet.
Leg 2 S Walker (1+ try) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: B Smith (1+ try) – Has been on a tear on the left wing for the Roosters, with the Chooks seemingly heading his way more than Marky Mark at the back end of this season.
Roosters vs Tigers Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 23rd August
Location: Allianz Stadium - Randwick
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Weather: Fine, 19 degrees
Odds: Roosters ($1.08) vs Tigers ($7.75)
Line: Roosters (-23.5)
Points: 52.5
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