The penultimate round of the 2026 AFL season kicks off on Friday night with Fremantle playing host to Adelaide at Optus Stadium. Both clubs are coming off disappointing performances last weekend and will be looking to bounce back as they ramp things up ahead of the finals.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Dockers vs Crows below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Fremantle vs Adelaide Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 23
Dockers Defending the Fortress
Fremantle returns to Optus Stadium this Friday night for Retro Round, looking to officially secure the minor premiership. Justin Longmuir's side sits outright first with an 18-3 record, but they received a reality check last Saturday, suffering a narrow 113 to 109 loss to Melbourne at the MCG. That result snapped a four-game winning streak, but they remain the absolute benchmark of the competition and will be desperate to respond on a home deck where they have been virtually invincible all season. Crucially, they regain vital defensive structure with captain Alex Pearce returning to the lineup after being rested last week.
Crows Fighting for Finals Positioning
Adelaide makes the daunting trip across the Nullarbor still hunting a crucial double chance. The Crows sit fifth on the ladder after grinding out a 63 to 54 victory over Richmond at the Adelaide Oval last weekend. However, securing the four points masked a major missed opportunity. By only scraping over the line against a bottom-two side, Adelaide failed to boost their percentage and subsequently slipped out of the top four. The Crows now face the very real reality of falling outside the top 6 and into the Wildcard Round if they fail to secure an upset win on Friday night. Off the field, it has also been an emotionally charged week at West Lakes following champion forward Tex Walker's announcement that he will retire at the end of the season.
Recent History and Tactical Contrast
Fremantle holds a clear psychological edge in this matchup, having secured victory in their last three encounters against Adelaide. The most recent clash delivered a Friday night thriller over in South Australia back in Round 4, where the Dockers held their nerve to win 78 to 76. Tactically, this fixture provides a brilliant clash of styles. Adelaide thrives in the clinches, relying on a brutal contested game to drag opponents into a physical scrap. Conversely, Fremantle prefers to utilise their elite disposal efficiency, cutting teams apart on the outside to generate clinical inside 50 entries.
Match Prediction and Best Bet
The betting market has heavily skewed towards the home side, but laying a 22.5-point handicap against a desperate finals contender is a risky proposition. Fremantle has already banked a top two finish and a home qualifying final. While Longmuir's men will want to secure top spot on the ladder, the true urgency sits with the visitors. The ladder is incredibly tight, and a defeat here would likely drop Adelaide outside the top six, dealing a massive disadvantage to their September trajectory. Fremantle rarely drops games in Perth, but the sheer desperation of a Crows side fighting for their top four/six lives should turn this into a close contest that sees the Crows cover the spread.
Adelaide +22.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Fremantle vs Adelaide Prop Bet
Darcy Fogarty has missed the last three matches through suspension but returns on Friday night. He was arguably in career-best form prior to being rubbed out, kicking 2+ goals in five straight matches for a total of 17 goals over that stretch. Riley Thilthorpe will likely get the Alex Pearce matchup, which means Fogarty will get Cox/Ryan who he should be able to get the better of.
Darcy Fogarty 2+ Goals
$2.05
Fremantle vs Adelaide Same Game Multi
Jye Amiss 2+ Goals: He’s having a huge year with 53 goals and has kicked 16 over the last five weeks alone.
Darcy Fogarty 2+ Goals: For the reasons mentioned above in our prop bet.
Callum Ah Chee Anytime Goal Scorer: He’s kicked seven goals across his last four matches and generally plays his best footy in big games.
Fremantle vs Adelaide Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Friday 14th August
Time: 8:10pm AEST
Location: Optus Stadium, Perth
Odds: Fremantle $1.28 vs Adelaide $3.75
Line: -22.5
Points: 170.5
Where to Watch Fremantle vs Adelaide
You can watch the Dockers vs Crows live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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