Friday night footy for AFL Round 22 is an absolute blockbuster as top 4 fancies Brisbane and Hawthorn lock horns at the Gabba. The Lions will be desperate to make amends for last weekend’s disaster against the Blues, while four points for the Hawks will keep their top 2 chances alive.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Lions vs Hawks below, with odds thanks to UniBet!
Brisbane vs Hawthorn Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 22
Lions Desperate to Bounce Back
Brisbane will be desperate to respond this Friday night after suffering a brutal 76-point reality check against Carlton last weekend. Before that disaster, Chris Fagan's men were arguably the hottest team in the competition, riding a superb seven-game winning streak. Now, the stakes could not be higher: they simply must win this clash to keep their push for a vital top-four spot alive. The massive silver lining for the Lions is the cavalry returning at exactly the right time. Ryan Lester, Darcy Gardiner, and veteran playmaker Dayne Zorko have all been officially cleared to play. Meanwhile, Hugh McCluggage and Logan Morris just need to tick the final boxes at Thursday's captain's run, but both are fully expected to take their place in a side that suddenly looks much more settled.
Hawks Flying High
On the other side of the ledger, Hawthorn makes the tricky trip up north sitting pretty in third place and boasting a four-game winning streak of their own. Sam Mitchell has his side playing a fearless, damaging brand of football. Their recent success is driven largely by their crisp ball movement and a highly dangerous forward line. They were given a genuine scare by North Melbourne down in Tasmania last week before eventually grinding out a 16-point win, a result heavily aided by an electric burst of individual brilliance from Nick Watson who remains in the hunt for the Coleman Medal. If Hawthorn wants to truly cement their top-four credentials and prove they can win the gritty games on the road, maintaining that offensive pressure against a fired-up Brisbane outfit at the Gabba is their next big challenge.
Turning the Tide in the Rivalry
When you look at the recent history between these two clubs, the Lions hold the current edge. Brisbane has claimed the points in their last two meetings, including a hard-fought 10-point victory at the Gabba late last year. However, it was not that long ago that Hawthorn held a serious mental edge in this fixture, having won five on the trot before the Lions finally flipped the script. Tactically, this game will be won and lost at the coalface. Hawthorn's midfield has been sensational all year, but matching Brisbane's clearance dominance on their home deck is a massive hurdle. The Lions pride themselves on getting first use out of the middle, and with their structure back intact, they are perfectly built to dictate the tempo.
Match Prediction and Best Bet
This Friday night blockbuster has all the makings of the game of the round, with massive finals implications on the line for both clubs. While Hawthorn's recent form has been outstanding, it is incredibly hard to ignore the bounce-back factor for the Lions at home. Last week's thumping against Carlton felt like a terrible night at the office rather than the start of a major slump, especially considering the huge inclusions they get this week. With Zorko and Gardiner returning to steady the ship and a packed Gabba crowd in their corner, expect Brisbane to come out breathing fire. The Hawks are more than capable of taking it up to them, but the Lions' sheer desperation and midfield depth should see them get the job done and cover the line.
Brisbane -5.5
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Brisbane vs Hawthorn Prop Bet
Kai Lohmann has put together a fantastic season and his form is only getting stronger. He’s kicked 41 goals and 2+ in each of his last six matches, for a total of 19 goals over that stretch. He’s also kicked 2+ in two of his three career meetings with the Hawks, including two goals when they last met. You can’t get much better form than that for a $2+ pop.
Kai Lohmann 2+ Goals
$2.02
Brisbane vs Hawthorn Same Game Multi
Kai Lohmann 2+ Goals: For the reasons mentioned above in our prop bet.
Mabior Chol 2+ Goals: He’s kicked 2+ goals in seven of his last nine matches and has kicked 2+ in three of his last four against the Lions.
Cam Rayner Anytime Goal Scorer: 22 goals this season and at least one goal in five of his last six matches.
Brisbane vs Hawthorn Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Friday 7th August
Time: 7:40pm AEST
Location: Gabba, Brisbane
Odds: Brisbane $1.72 vs Hawthorn $2.15
Line: -5.5
Points: 189.5
Where to Watch Brisbane vs Hawthorn
You can watch the Lions vs Hawks live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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