The traditional rivals meet under lights at the MCG on Saturday night, with Collingwood desperately needing a win to keep their finals hopes alive, while Richmond continue their rebuilding season with a young and injury-hit list. The Magpies sit just outside the wildcard positions and cannot afford to drop games against sides lower on the ladder.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Pies vs Tigers below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Collingwood vs Richmond Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 16
Pies Searching for a Kickstart
Collingwood come in with a 6-7-1 win/loss/draw record and produced one of their better performances of the season last weekend, knocking over Port Adelaide by 26 points. The Magpies restricted the Power to just six goals and looked far more connected across all areas of the ground.
Nick Daicos continues to produce outrageous numbers, collecting 41 disposals against Port Adelaide and extending his streak to four consecutive matches with 35 or more. Josh Daicos added 30 disposals, while Jordan De Goey was influential with 26 touches and three goals in arguably his best game of the season. Tim Membrey has also found form, kicking multiple goals in two of his last three matches.
The Magpies have been reliable against the competition's lower-ranked teams this season and their ability to control territory, apply pressure and generate repeat inside 50s should give them a significant advantage against Richmond at the MCG.
Young Tigers Learning the Hard Way
Richmond have managed just two victories this season and continue to battle through an extensive injury list that has forced a host of young players into prominent roles. Their most recent outing resulted in a 25-point loss to North Melbourne, despite winning the inside 50 count 48-46.
Scoring remains the biggest concern for the Tigers, averaging just 65 points per game across the season. They managed only six goals against the Kangaroos, with Noah Balta kicking two majors, while Steely Green and Seth Campbell remain the club's leading goalkickers with just 14 each for the year.
Jayden Short continues to be Richmond's most consistent accumulator, averaging 25 disposals per game and collecting 29 last weekend. Tom Brown and Sam Banks also found plenty of the football, but the Tigers continue to struggle converting possession dominance into scoreboard pressure against stronger opposition.
What to Expect? Here’s Our Best Bet!
The total looks a touch too high given Richmond's ongoing scoring struggles and the way Collingwood have defended over the past fortnight. The Tigers are averaging just 65 points per game this season and managed only six goals against North Melbourne last week despite generating plenty of forward entries.
History also strongly supports the unders, with ten of Richmond's last eleven matches at the MCG finishing below the total points line. Collingwood should control the contest and bank the four points, but the Tigers' inability to score consistently makes a lower-scoring affair the preferred play.
Under 168.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Collingwood vs Richmond Prop Bet
De Goey has rediscovered his best football over the past fortnight and tends to fill his boots against the competition's weaker sides. He comes off three goals against Port Adelaide and his ability to split time between midfield and forward makes him a nightmare matchup for Richmond's inexperienced defence. At the current price, 2+ goals appeals as one of the better player props on the board.
Jordan De Goey 2+ Goals
$2.10
Collingwood vs Richmond Same Game Multi
Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals | Josh Daicos 25+ Disposals | Jayden Short 25+ Disposals
Nick Daicos continues to be a set-and-forget selection, producing 35+ disposals in four straight matches and coming off 41 last weekend. Brother Josh has found another gear as well, posting 30+ in his last two outings and thriving on the outside when Collingwood control territory. For Richmond, Jayden Short should again see plenty of the football in defence with the Magpies expected to dominate field position, making his 25+ line an attractive inclusion in the multi.
Collingwood vs Richmond Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Saturday 27 June
Time: 4.15pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Collingwood ($1.11) vs Richmond ($6.70)
Line: 37.5
Points: 168.5
Where to Watch Collingwood vs Richmond
You can watch the Pies vs Tigers live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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