The second match of the 2026 series heads to Melbourne this year, with the Blus ahead 1-nil in the series. Excitement was high ahead of the first contest and fans are desperate to see how each team lines up for this game. There is still a lot of uncertainty around the potential of each team and how the matchups which will play out over 80 minutes. Don’t despair, Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the action ahead, with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
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2026 NRL State of Origin Game 2 Predictions & Tips
Queensland vs New South Wales Preview
The Blues were ambushed in the first half of Game 1, appearing off the pace and incapable of halting the power of the Maroons. The quickly found themselves behind 20-nil with several players struggling with the pace of the match. Scoring before the break, the Maroons still carried a 20-6 lead into the break and were appearing the stronger of the two sides. After trading early blows, the 57th minute send-off of Ponga turned the match, with momentum quickly favouring the home team. Still failing to take their chances, the Blues finally crossed the tryline as fatigue quickly mounted for the Maroons. Then, in the 79th minute, Tedesco latched onto a Cleary bomb to score, and the man-of-the-match sealed the result with a conversion.
It was a lucky escape for the Blues and despite dominating possession (53%), they were their own worst enemy with a 74% completion rate. Their execution was poor and there is no doubt that at full-strength in the first half, Queensland were the stronger side. In the end though, New South Wales averaged 8.1m per carry (Queensland 8.2m), made 571 PCM’s (Queensland 435), had 5 line breaks (Queensland 2), and missed fewer tackles (27 vs 44); the statistics were impacted by the correct sending off of Ponga. Perhaps the statistics indicate that the Maroons early dominance was due to momentum and errors rather than superiority. Either way, most would say that they are looking forward to an 80-minute contest featuring the full complement of players. With both teams having plenty of issues to address, it is intriguing to see just how they respond and adjust their approach for this match when the series is on the line.
Maroons or Blues? Here's our State of Origin Game 2 Tip
It is puzzling to see the Blues posted as favourites for this match. The Maroons were the superior team in Game 1 when each team had their full complement of players. While they failed to score a point in the second half prior to Ponga’s departure, they were still strong in halting their opponent’s momentum. Players like Walker, Toia, Munster, and Nikora will be better for the outing also. The naming of Lucas in the backrow for New South Wales suggests the Blues acknowledge they were too slow around the ruck. They were a better team with both Murray and Radley on the field, and it is likely that both will feature sooner in this contest to support the strong carries of Haas.
As much as the Blues will correct their shortcomings from the opening match of the series, so too will the Maroons. Their change of Cotter to lock, albeit with the loss of Carrigan, isn’t ideal but it does increase the mobility of their pack. It will be close but ultimately, the Maroons were far too dominant in the opening of Game 1 that it will be unlikely they will fail to reach the same standard. The Blues will be better prepared and that is why the margin will stay closer than expected but in looks like this series will head to a Game 3 decider.
Maroons to Win
$2.00 (1.5 Units)
NRL State of Origin Game 2 Best Prop Bets
Who will score the first try?
In the past 15 Game 2 fixtures, outside backs (players wearing 2, 3, 4 or 5) have scored first on 10 occasions. A more open style of play is expected and with that, every player becomes a viable try scoring option when the ball is in play. There were several near misses in Game 1 from players across the field.
New South Wales
Best Bet = Mark Nawaqanitawase $9.25 at Ladbrokes – making his debut at this level, Nawaqanitawase will have no fear. Wanting to make the most of his opportunity, he is a threat both in the air and on the ground to cross the tryline. The NSW halves will be aware of this and should ai to get him the ball as much as possible is positive attacking position.
Value = Tolutau Koula $15 at Ladbrokes – shifting to his preferred position of centre, Koula was dynamic in Game 1 before he left the field. That is unlikely to change in this match and moving closer to the ball will only give him an advantage. His trademark speed will also be on display as he exposes weaknesses in his opponents.
Queensland
Best Bet = Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow $10 at Neds – He was at his dynamic best in Game 1 and being closer to the ball at centre appears to matter little for his timing. The Blues defenders have a hard time trying to hold him and keep him out of the contest.
Value = Robert Toia $17 at Neds – he crossed first in Game 1 and has a unique timing with Walker that gives him an advantage over most. Expect the Maroons to head to the right edge plenty of times and at generous odds, he is worth strong consideration.
Man of the Match Prediction
There is no clear pattern of players winning this honour in Game 2. If anything, 9 of the past 15 have been forwards but countering that is that 3 of the past 6 have been halfbacks. For either side, you must go with the players who are likely to have the most impact on the result. As always, this is a market which should be avoided as it is subjective and often, the best player is overlooked. Cleary was the winner in Game 1 this year, with his spirited performance in leading the run against the Maroons gaining the necessary attention. There were several other Blues players who also could’ve been awarded this.
New South Wales
Best Bet = Nathan Cleary $6.00 at Ladbrokes – winning the award in Game 1, Cleary’s fingerprints will be all over this contest again if the Blues are successful. Moses’ inclusion should only allow him greater freedom around the field and his kicking game will again be crucial.
Value = Payne Haas $11 at Ladbrokes – the forgotten man after missing Game 1 though injury, Haas’ form at club level has been dynamic. In a struggling team, he has been the spark to lift them during matches, and it is expected that he will have the same impact in this contest.
Queensland
Best Bet = Harry Grant $10 at Neds – Grant was everywhere for the Maroons in Game 1 and will again be a key feature of their attack. Often overlooked elsewhere, Grant has a strong defensive game which ties together the players in the middle. If they are a chance to win, he will need to be one of the Maroons best in both areas.
Value = Tino Fa’asuamaleaui $23 at Neds – The Maroons answer to Haas, Big Tino will be up for this contest following an emotional week for him and his family. Regardless of the circumstances, the big prop plays at an inspirational level in all matches he features in. This will be no different and his team will need him to be at his best if they are a chance of winning this match.
Over or Under? Our Total Points Prediction
As mentioned above, 5 of the past 7 Game 2 matches have been won by the Blues with all 5 of those fixtures being decided by a 13+ margin. The average margin of victory for the Blues since 2011 is 16.2 points while the Maroons have won by an average of 12 points; the Maroons were successful by just 2 points in Game 2 last year. The average total points is 37.6 points with an outlier of 10 points (Game 2, 2014) dragging the average down slightly. There is no doubt that the firepower within these teams will make for an exciting attacking contest; you only must look at how each team moved the ball in Game 1 to see how dangerous each will be. This game is likely to follow a similar pattern to previous years.
Queensland vs New South Wales Team Lineups
New South Wales
1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Katoni Staggs 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Payne Haas 9. Reece Robson 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Hudson Young 12. Dylan Lucas 13. Isaah Yeo Interchange: 14. Cameron Murray 15. Victor Radley 16. Addin Fonua-Blake 17. Apisai Koroisau18. Ethan Strange 19. Jack Bostock Reserve: 20. Haumole Olakau’atu
Queensland
1. Kaylan Ponga 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Robert Toia 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Cameron Munster 7. Sam Walker 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Briton Nikora 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Reuben Cotter Interchange: 14. Max Plath 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 17. Trent Loiero 18. Reece Walsh 19. Murray Taulagi Reserve: 20. Heilum Luki
Queensland vs New South Wales Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Wednesday 17th June
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Time: 8:05pm (AEST)
Odds: Queensland $1.92 vs New South Wales $1.92
Line: N/A
Points: 41.5
Where To Watch the State of Origin?
You can watch the Maroons vs Blues live and free on Channel 9, while full replays will be shown on Kayo Sports!
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