Melbourne will be looking to avoid a repeat of one of the biggest upsets of the season when they take on Essendon at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. The Demons were stunned by the Bombers during Gather Round and remain the only side to have dropped points to Essendon in 2026.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Demons vs Bombers clash below. And if you’re keen to back in our tips, consider doing so at Bet365 - one of the biggest and best sportsbooks in the world!
Melbourne vs Essendon Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 14
Demons Looking To Build Momentum
Melbourne bounced back from consecutive losses with a gritty eight-point victory over Collingwood and remain firmly in the hunt for a top-four finish with an 8-5 record.
Kysaiah Pickett was sensational against the Magpies, finishing with 28 disposals and three goals, while Jack Steele and Harvey Langford continued their strong seasons through the midfield. The Demons rank fifth in the AFL for scoring and fourth for inside 50s, highlighting their ability to consistently generate opportunities.
Their biggest strength remains their midfield depth and territory game. Max Gawn continues to dominate around stoppages, while Pickett's ability to impact both through the midfield and forward line makes him one of the competition's most dangerous weapons.
Bombers Showing Signs of Life
Despite sitting at the foot of the ladder with just one win, Essendon has become noticeably more competitive over the past fortnight.
The Bombers pushed Carlton all the way last week before eventually falling by five points, while Zach Merrett, Sam Durham and Will Setterfield all continued their strong form around the contest. Archie Roberts was held to 22 disposals against the Blues, snapping a remarkable run of 11 consecutive games with at least 25 touches.
A fascinating development has been the move of Ben McKay forward. The former key defender has kicked three goals across his past two matches and now looks capable of causing problems inside 50, particularly with Jordan Ridley returning to take on more defensive responsibility.
Demons vs Bombers Prediction
Melbourne should still win this game, but the line feels a touch too large.
The Bombers have become much harder to score against in recent weeks and the return of Jordan Ridley only strengthens their defensive setup. They also showed against Carlton that they can turn games into arm wrestles and frustrate more talented opponents.
Melbourne's midfield quality and forward-half pressure should eventually prove the difference, but with the Demons coming off a short break and Essendon showing signs of improvement, the Bombers look capable of staying within four goals.
Bombers +28.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Melbourne vs Essendon Prop Bet
The move forward has worked beautifully for Ben McKay, with the key position player kicking three goals across his past two matches.
With Jordan Ridley returning to the side, there is every chance Essendon persists with McKay as a forward target. Melbourne's defence will naturally focus plenty of attention on Nate Caddy and Peter Wright, potentially allowing McKay to find favourable matchups closer to goal.
Melbourne vs Essendon Same Game Multi
Archie Roberts 25+ Disposals | Kysaiah Pickett 20+ Disposals | Jack Steele 20+ Disposals
Archie Roberts has been one of the AFL's premier ball winners this season and should bounce back after narrowly missing the mark last week. Kysaiah Pickett continues to spend significant time in the midfield and has cleared 20 disposals in eight of his last 11 games, while Jack Steele has become one of Melbourne's most reliable accumulators.
Melbourne vs Essendon Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Saturday 13th July
Time: 1.15pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Melbourne ($1.19) vs Essendon ($4.75)
Line: 28.5
Points: 158.5
Where to Watch Melbourne vs Essendon
You can watch the Dees vs Bombers live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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