AFL Round 13 wraps up on Monday with a massive King’s Birthday clash between Collingwood and Melbourne at the MCG. This year’s blockbuster carries extra weight, marking the very first Big Freeze since the passing of the legendary Neale Daniher. Read on for our Magpies vs Demons match preview, tactical analysis, and top betting tips.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Magpies vs Demons below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Collingwood vs Melbourne Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 13
Must-Win for the Magpies
Collingwood enters this highly anticipated King's Birthday blockbuster desperately needing to steady the ship, having hit a mid-season patch of turbulence. Sitting 11th on the ladder with a 5-6-1 record, Craig McRae's men have dropped three of their past four matches. The Magpies suffered a major blow with confirmation of a season-ending knee injury for veteran forward Jamie Elliott, severely denting their attacking structure. In his absence, they will unleash mid-season draftee Mitch Podhajski for his AFL debut, hoping his fresh energy can spark a forward line that has looked stagnant in recent weeks.
Are the Demons on the Slide?
Melbourne finds itself in a similarly precarious position under new coach Steven King, currently sitting just outside the eight in ninth place with a 7-5 record. The Demons are reeling from consecutive defeats, most recently being opened up by Greater Western Sydney, which has raised questions about their defence after a bright start to the year. They will also unveil a debutant in 2024 mid-season recruit Luker Kentfield, looking to inject some life into their stuttering system. However, this match carries a profoundly heavier weight for the Demons and the wider football community; it marks the 12th Big Freeze, an occasion made immensely emotional following the tragic passing of Neale Daniher just a fortnight ago.
Recent H2H History
When it comes to recent head-to-head history, the Magpies have thoroughly enjoyed the wood over the Demons, particularly in these high-stakes encounters. Collingwood claimed the points in both of their 2025 meetings, securing a nail-biting one-point victory in last year's King's Birthday classic before backing it up with a six-point thriller in Round 24. Furthermore, you have to look back to mid-2023 to find Melbourne's last win in this fixture, with the Pies having consistently dominated the pressure and intercept possession metrics in their recent clashes.
Magpies or Demons? What to Expect!
With both sides desperate to reverse their sliding form and keep their finals hopes alive, this shapes as a fierce, grinding contest at the MCG. The emotional gravity of the occasion for Melbourne will undoubtedly inspire a ferocious effort early, but Collingwood's recent psychological edge in tight finishes makes this incredibly difficult to split. Expect a highly contested affair where momentum swings are dictated by stoppage clearances and forward-half pressure. Given how evenly matched and desperate both squads are, the best tip is backing either team to win by 24 points or less in what promises to be a tense arm-wrestle.
Either Team by 24 Points or Less
$1.86 (2 Units)
Collingwood vs Melbourne Prop Bet
It hasn’t been a great year for Bayley Fritsch in terms of scoreboard impact, but he does have good recent form both at the MCG and against the Magpies. He’s kicked 2+ goals in four straight games at the MCG and has kicked 3+ in each of his two games against the Magpies.
Bayley Fritsch 2+ Goals
$3.30
Collingwood vs Melbourne Same Game Multi
Bayley Fritsch 2+ Goals: For the reasons mentioned above in our prop bet.
Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals: Nick is playing sore but that hasn’t impacted his ability to accumulate. He’s averaging 34.9 disposals per game and is coming off 37 disposals last outing.
Jordan De Goey 25+ Disposals: He’ back in peak form as a pure midfielder. 25+ disposals in four straight games and remains great value.
Collingwood vs Melbourne Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Monday 8th June
Time: 3:15pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Collingwood $1.92 vs Melbourne $1.92
Line: N/A
Points: 180.5
Where to Watch Collingwood vs Melbourne
You can watch the Magpies vs Demons live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at Dabble!
Not familiar with Dabble? Check out our full Dabble review here, or by clicking the banner below.
