State of Origin is back for 2026 and as everything else in the world of rugby league pauses, attention will turn to Sydney for Game 1 of the series. There is plenty of unknown in this series as a rule changes, expanded squads, and new eligibility laws look set to impact the outcome of this great contest. The action promises to be exhilarating and Before You Bet is here with a comprehensive preview of what is ahead.
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2026 NRL State of Origin Game 1 Predictions & Tips
New South Wales vs Queensland Preview
Much like last year, this series is again appearing to be one of transition. The Blues are out to make amends for an uncharacteristic series loss despite winning Game 1. Pressure is growing around the Blues set-up and New South Wales coach Laurie Daley has limited time to achieve success before noise will grow louder calling for his departure. Queensland coach Billy Slater will be acutely aware of this and will want to take every chance given to them. They chose to bring about changes following a poor performance in the opening fixture and it paid dividends. The Maroons have a new set of challenges ahead of them; on top of traveling down to Sydney, new combinations will need to produce success early. New faces and combinations bring uncertainty, but the same intensity in Origin is set to be retained. It’s a brutal form of rugby league but one which leaves everyone wanting more.
Blues or Maroons? Here's our State of Origin Game 1 Tip
It is puzzling to see the Blues named as short as they are for this game. Having failed last year with a similar set-up and missing key players, a lot of faith has been put into this group to make amends for the 2025 result. On the positive, the best game they played last year saw Moses and Cleary partner in the halves. They reconnect here and bring a two-pronged kicking game which can pressure the Maroons back 3.Territory is crucial in Origin, and it was a point of difference last year. The debut of Walker at halfback is also intriguing. Much has been made about his poor defence at times, but he is ranked 47th this year for missed tackles with Cotter, Munster, Cleary, Young, Grant, and Moses all missing more so far this season. There is no doubt that the Blues will be sending plenty of traffic his way, but they too have their own concerns. Robson’s form has been mixed, while the make-up of the forward rotation leaves them short a powerful forward in the middle. They will look to play fast but that will only work if they’re continually going forward over the advantage line.
As is the case with Game 1, it is best to invest around a tight contest and have greater confidence moving forward in the series. A blowout is unlikely, and this should be a game whereby the winner will only emerge late in the contest.
Either team by 10.5 points or less
$1.87 (2 units)
NRL State of Origin Game 1 Best Prop Bets
Who Scores the First Try?
Since 2011, a forward has only scored twice in the series opener (Cordner – NSW – 2016 & Hunt – QLD – 2024). Wingers have scored 5 times, centres 4 times (4 of the past 6 years to be exact), halves twice and a fullback once. It is a good sign for the eventual winner too, with 9 of the teams who have scored first going on to win the match. This could be useful for punters who are interested in a live bet.
New South Wales
Best Bet = To’o $9.75 at Ladbrokes – Having a quiet year by his standards, with just 7 tries from 11 matches, To’o is still a threat wherever he is on the field. This game should be no different. He is safe when finishing attacking movements and is sure to get quality ball on sweeping movements to his edge.
Value = Staggs $15 at Neds – A powerful attacking threat, Staggs will want to take the game on with the ball in his hand. There is no reason why he won’t have this at the forefront of his mind. The Maroons will need to close him down early to limit his effectiveness as he has proven how dangerous he can be in 2026 with 6 tries from 9 matches.
Queensland
Best Bet = Selwyn Cobbo $10.50 at Ladbrokes – Somewhat of a surprise selection, he is big, strong, and powerful with the ball. Expect him to want to emulate previous Maroons players on an edge. He is also a threat both in the air and on the ground.
Value = Tabuai-Fidow $13 at Neds – A quiet season by his expectations, the Hammer is now closer to the ball. Word is that Crichton will also be on the other side, allowing him to take advantage of Staggs’ eagerness in defence.
Man of the Match Prediction
This is a betting market which comes with a warning; usually, the best player doesn’t always win the award and controversy reigns once it is named. This is a market which you would be encouraged to stay away from or invest no more than 0.5 units. However, we will provide an insight if you wish to have an investment.
In the 15 Game 1 Origin matches since 2011, players from the spine (1, 6, 7 or 9) have a 46% success rate; interestingly, a forward (Cotter – QLD) won for the first-time in 2023 since 2017. Haas backed this up with MOTM honours in Game 1 last year. Look at the key players for each side. There is greater value on players who may not play in the spine but will be influential to the outcome of the contest; given this should be a tight contest, perhaps a middle forward will be influential to the outcome of this game. The obvious selections are the shorter ones, with those players needing to have strong games if their teams are to win.
New South Wales
Best Bet = Cleary $5.00 at Ladbrokes – It is the safe option for the Blues as they welcome back their key playmaker to the fold. His calm presence will undoubtedly have a positive impact. Having Moses in the team also frees him up to take the ball to the line more because he has another genuine playmaker to call the shots in tackled.
Value = Murray $31 at Neds – Despite starting from the bench, Murray will have a large impact on the outcome of this contest. Missing last year, it is easily to forget how valuable he is to his team. It won’t take long to remember once he takes the field and offers some great value also.
Queensland
Best Bet = Grant $10 at Ladbrokes – Queensland are at their best when he is scheming around the field. Impacted by the Storms poor form this season, Grant has still been delivering each week. The biggest of stages should see him flourish and expose the Blues’ weaknesses around the ruck.
Value = Munster $15 at Neds – Unlike Grant, Munster’s form has been questionable at best for the Storm. Regardless, Origin appears to bring out the best in him. Leading the Maroons, he will look to get his hands on the ball as much as possible but will also need to improve defensively.
Over or Under? Our Total Points Prediction
The average points scored in Game 1 Origin fixtures since 2011 is 30.3 points. They are traditionally tight, defensive orientated encounters. There has been only three times since 2011 that games were won by a 13+ margin also (2017, 2021 & 2025 – two by NSW and one by QLD). This game look headed for the same outcome as each team doesn’t take the usual number of risks that would come at an NRL level. You need to factor this into your decision making prior to an investment.
Total Points – Under 42.5 $1.90 at Dabble – Consider adding this to a SGM or other sports multi.
New South Wales vs Queensland Team Lineups
New South Wales
1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Katoni Staggs 5. Tolutau Koula 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Reece Robson 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Hudson Young 12. Haumole Olakau’atu 13. Isaah Yeo Interchange: 14. Cameron Murray 15. Victor Radley 16. Jacob Saifiti 17. Blayke Brailey 18. Ethan Strange 19. Casey McLean Reserve: 20. Dylan Lucas
Queensland
1. Kaylan Ponga 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Robert Toia 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Cameron Munster 7. Sam Walker 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Max Plath Interchange: 14. Briton Nikora 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Patrick Carrigan 17. Trent Loiero 18. Ezra Mam 19. Gehamat Shibasaki Reserve: 20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
New South Wales vs Queensland Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Wednesday 27th May
Location: Accor Stadium, Sydney
Time: 8:05pm (AEST)
Odds: New South Wales $1.55 vs Queensland $2.45
Line: -4.5
Points: 42.5
Where To Watch the State of Origin?
You can watch the Blues vs Maroons live and free on Channel 9, while full replays will be shown on Kayo Sports!
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