It’s the second grand slam tournament of the year as the best players in the world head to Paris for Roland Garros glory. Ace is here with his men’s outright preview and best bets. Check them out below!
I have to admit, a couple of days ago I was a little worried about how this tournament was going to shape up for the men. With the likes of Federer and Nadal gone, and Djokovic in the twilight years of his career, the ATP tour has heavily leaned on Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz to deliver some incredible matches over the best of 5 set format, in particular at this very tournament 12 months ago.
This year, Sinner is a one-man band, with Alcaraz set to miss Roland Garros (and Wimbledon) with a wrist injury. What has turned up, however, is an absolute heatwave as far as this tournament generally goes. Is Sinner’s biggest rival the weather, or can someone knock him off?
Men's French Open Betting Tips
Quarter 1
I don’t want to go into great detail when looking at this portion of the market with respect to outrights. Why? Well Jannik Sinner is sitting around $1.10, whilst the main chances to upset the Italian sit in the $20-30 range. To be honest, you’d probably get close to that price on Betfair for a head to head with Sinner, so I am happy to look at other markets.
Quarter 2
This is where things start to get a little interesting. This section is bookended by Daniil Medvedev and Felix Auger-Aliassime, with both players very capable on the clay on their day, but neither likely to instil a significant amount of fear either. I don’t think the hot conditions are going to help FAA either, given he cramped midway through his match with Borges at the Australian Open, and was cramping at the end of the second set of a recent match with Navone. Medvedev also isn’t a player I’d be confidently backing in these conditions on the clay as a pretty strong favourite, and my eyes are drawn to one player in particular. That player is Francisco Cerundolo. He is the 2nd-3rd favourite to take out the section and I completely understand why. He has a style of game on the clay that matches up quite well with an array of different opposition styles. He may not be coming in here with the type of form that jumps off the page, but he has proven himself to be able to match it with most on tour on the clay, and has impressed with solid runs in the past. Of the rest, another who caught my eye was Flavio Cobolli, though the variation in his level from match to match is a bit of a concern.
Quarter 3
There is some genuine relief for players who are in Quarters 3 and 4, as they are as far away from Jannik Sinner as possible. That being said, there are some pretty dangerous names in this quarter, and it therefore makes things a little tricky. There is an argument to be made that Casper Ruud is almost the 2nd-3rd favourite for the title based on recent form, but expending energy in Geneva the week before the grand slam is not something I’d list as ideal. I think cases can be made for the likes of Novak Djokovic, Ruud, Andrey Rublev (albeit it in a first round popcorn match with Ignacio Buse) and Alex De Minaur, but none really stand out to me at their prices currently.
Quarter 4
Alexander Zverev comes in as the 2nd seed, but I have to admit, his form hasn’t caught my eye in the same way it has in past years. It does look and feel as though something is holding him back, and as a result I cannot get too excited at the prospect backing him as the commanding favourite to win this quarter. At the top of the quarter we have Taylor Fritz, who has been struggling physically on the court, and going through a raft of personal challenges off the court as well recently. I am happy to bet around both of these players. Others at the top of the market are Arthur Fils, who is under a massive injury cloud, and Rafael Jodar, one of the rising stars of tennis, but may lack conditioning to back up and play a high volume of tennis in these warmer conditions. Of the rest, the name that appeals to me at odds is Karen Khachanov, who has shown his ability to handle a range of conditions, is well versed over the best of 5 set format, and has made deep grand slam runs in the past. Happy to make a small play on him.
Suggested Bets
0.5 units Francisco Cerundolo Quarter 2 Winner at $7 at Bet365
0.5 units Karen Khachanov Quarter 4 Winner at $15 at Bet365
