Round 1 of the 2026 AFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the traditional clash between Carlton and Richmond at the MCG. The Blues are coming off a demoralising week both on and off the field, while the Tigers will be playing their first official match of the season.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Blues vs Tigers below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Carlton vs Richmond Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 1
Nightmare Start for the Blues
The Blues are under pressure after Opening Round and head into this Thursday night clash still smarting from a heavy loss to the Swans. Carlton managed just 69 points in the 63 point defeat and completely unravelled in the second half, conceding 12 goals in a disastrous third quarter. On top of that, the club is dealing with fresh off field drama involving former captain Sam Docherty. Following a scathing assessment of the team on a recent podcast, Docherty has been removed from an upcoming club function. This has piled extra pressure on coach Michael Voss and the playing group as they try to find answers at home, and they will also have to bounce back without Adam Saad who suffered a hamstring injury.
Tigers Continue to Rebuild
The Tigers will continue their full rebuild in 2026 and showed some genuine promise last season. They have plenty of young talent ready to make an impact. Sam Lalor was the 2024 number one pick and is expected to spend more time in the midfield this year. Pick eight from the 2025 draft, Sam Grlj, will make his debut on Thursday night and is set to add some much needed pace and class across half back. While veteran defender Nick Vlastuin is unavailable due to a lingering ankle injury, this is the first game of the season for Richmond, so they arrive fresh and ready to make a statement.
Will History Repeat Itself?
Looking at recent head to head history, the corresponding game last year in Round 1 was a genuine classic. The Blues led by 41 points during the second quarter, but the Tigers stormed back with a massive second half to pull off a famous upset and win by 13 points. Prior to that shock result, Carlton had won the previous two meetings in 2024.
What to Expect? Here’s Our Best Bet
It's unknown how the Blues will respond after last week's demoralising loss, although supporters will be hoping for maximum effort. Meanwhile, the Tigers are expected to sit near the bottom of the ladder again this year and ranked last in points per game across the entirety of last season, and they still lack genuine quality up forward to put up winning totals on the regular. The Blues themselves averaged the fifth least points per game across the whole of last year and struggled again last week when they could only post 69 against Sydney, as they continue to deal with life after Curnow. All of that points to another low scoring affair, so backing the unders looks to be the smartest play.
Under 173.5 Points
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Carlton vs Richmond Prop Bet
2024 #1 pick Sam Lalor has had a “10 times better preseason” second time around and is expeced to feature more heavily in the midfield in 2026. He’s bulked up and looks fit and ready to in Round 1. Lalor found plenty of the footy in the AAMI Community Series before the game was called off for bad weather, and the midfield role was on full display. I like the odds for 20+ on Thursday.
Sam Lalor 20+ Disposals
$2.87
Carlton vs Richmond Same Game Multi
Sam Walsh 30+ Disposals: After his best preseason in a number of years, Walsh finally looks super fit and back to his best. Was racking up the touches against the Swans last week before the Jordon tag came, and I’m expecting another big night here.
Sam Lalor 15+ Disposals: For the reasons mentioned above in our prop bet. Taking him for 15 in our SGM for a bit more safety.
Harry McKay 3+ Goals: Struggled a bit as the main man last week in his first official game Post Curnow. However, the ball should spend a lot of time in the Blues forward line here and McKay just needs to take advantage. Offers good value here.
Same Game Odds: $6.00 at Dabble
Carlton vs Richmond Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Thursday 12th March
Time: 7:30pm AEDT
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Carlton $1.37 vs Richmond $3.10
Line: -18.5
Points: 172.5
Where to Watch Carlton vs Richmond
You can watch the Blues vs Tigers clash on Channel 7 or live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at Dabble!
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