The NFL season is starting to take shape as Week 5 rolls around, and the Monday slate is packed with storylines that could set the tone for the rest of the year. We’ve reached the point where teams can no longer dismiss poor form as “just early season rust” and contenders are beginning to separate themselves from the pack. For some franchises, this week is a chance to reinforce their playoff credentials, while for others it’s about survival and finding a spark before the season slips away.
Check out our preview and betting tips for the key games in the Week 5 Monday slate below.
NFL Week 5 Monday Betting Tips
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks
3am (AEST)
Seattle enters this game with some turbulence in their secondary. They’ve ruled out starters Julian Love and Devon Witherspoon, which weakens their back end significantly. The Seahawks will lean heavily on their front seven and secondary depth to hold off explosive plays. Jarran Reed has been named a defensive captain this week, highlighting how much Seattle needs their veteran front-line leadership. Meanwhile, they’ll hope Sam Darnold can manage pressure and protect the ball without giving Tampa extra opportunities.
Tampa Bay arrives having lost a key piece: running back Bucky Irving is out with a foot injury, meaning the Bucs will turn to Rachaad White, Sean Tucker, and others to carry the load on the ground. They’re also missing several other contributors, Mike Evans has also been ruled out, so the passing game could be under stress. But Baker Mayfield has been efficient under fire, and Tampa’s knack for closing tight games gives them belief even when missing parts.
This feels like a matchup determined by which side can adapt better. Seattle has the home crowd and the healthier overall roster (despite losses in the secondary). But Tampa’s resilience shouldn’t be underestimated. I lean Seahawks by a modest margin, perhaps 3–7 points, especially if Darnold holds up under pressure.
Seahawks -3.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals
6.25am (AEST)
Detroit comes in riding a hot stretch. They have scored heavily over their last few games, and their offense has looked sharp and balanced. The Lions see this as a chance to further cement their status as NFC contenders, and Jared Goff is playing with confidence. That said, they will be without defensive tackle Alim McNeill, which softens their interior defense, and a few other injuries to players with groin, hamstring and concussion issues may test their depth.
Cincinnati is trying to survive and find answers. With Joe Burrow sidelined due to a turf toe injury, Jake Browning is under center, and the passing offense has struggled to gain traction. The return of tight end Noah Fant from concussion protocol helps the receiving corps, but the Bengals still look fragile, especially up front. Their run game has been weak and the defense is under pressure to compensate for offensive shortcomings.
Detroit is a heavy favorite for a reason. Their ebb and flow offense and upgraded defense should be too much for the Bengals, especially with their quarterback situation. Look for a Lions win by double digits, 12 to 17 points seems reasonable.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
10.20am (AEST)
Buffalo is coming off a strong stretch. Their offense, even with adjustments, remains potent, and they have developed a knack for controlling games at home. The Bills crowd is a weapon, especially in primetime settings, and they will look to get physical early. Defensively, they have been solid across all three levels and will be eager to make life difficult for the young Patriots quarterback. This could be a statement home game for them.
New England has had moments of inconsistency, yet they are beginning to show signs of growth. Drake Maye has settled in with more confidence and is developing chemistry with his receivers. The Patriots ground game has been steady enough to help balance the offense, while their defense continues to be disciplined and opportunistic. The Patriots tend to rise to the occasion in divisional matchups, and their ability to limit explosive plays could keep this one within reach.
Buffalo should ultimately take the victory thanks to their overall firepower, but New England’s gritty defense and improving offense suggest they can hang around. Expect the Bills to win, but the Patriots to cover the spread in a game that ends closer than many anticipate.
Patriots +8.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Other Tips
Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns - Vikings -3.5 ($1.90 at Dabble)
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens - Under 40.5 ($1.88 at Dabble)
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints - Giants +1.5 ($1.89 at Dabble)
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers - Panthers +1.5 ($1.87 at Dabble)
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts - Colts -6.5 ($1.90 at Dabble)
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles - Eagles -4.5 ($1.88 at Dabble)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets - Under 47.5 ($1.88 at Dabble)
Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals - Titans +8.5 ($1.90 at Dabble)
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers - Chargers -2.5 ($1.88 at Dabble)
