A huge semi final showdown on Sunday afternoon at Accor Stadium, as the Bulldogs look to bounce back from a tight loss last week and be the team that officially ends the dynasty of the Panthers. The Panthers are now three wins away from five in a row, and the path to Immortality start on Sunday afternoon. I can’t wait.
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Bulldogs vs Panthers Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Semi Final
Ciraldo Playing Ducks and Drakes Naming Crichton?
The Bulldogs were 6.5-point dogs last week as they headed south to take on the Storm in Melbourne. After losing four of their last six regular season games, there was not a lot of optimism for the Bulldogs taking on the ultimate finals team in the Storm. The Bulldogs didn’t get the memo though, as they matched the Storm try for try, taking an 18-14 lead into the final 15 minutes of the game. The Storm did what the Storm do though, scoring two late converted tries to secure the week off, sneaking home 26-18 in a cracking game of football. The Bulldogs came out of the game with some serious injuries, with the likes of Stephen Crichton, Toby Sexton, and Viliami Kikau all nursing injuries. Somehow, they have all been named to play this week, although I’d be surprised to see Crichton run out for the Doggies against his former team.
The stats were tight against the Storm, with the two stats that stood out being the line breaks (Storm 6-2) and the missed tackle count for the Bulldogs, which stood at a whopping 61 missed tackles. I don’t recall seeing that big a number all season from any team, and the Bulldogs must do better this week if they’re any chance against the Panthers. Jacob Kiraz was his usual stat beast, running for 211 metres, scoring a try and line break, busting four tackles and popping five offloads, while Connor Tracey worked his ass off, running for 253 metres on 29 runs and setting up a try. All eyes will be on the final team lists this week, with the Bulldogs having several stars in doubt.
Panthers Hanging onto the Dream of Five
The Panthers kept the dream alive, with a solid 24-8 road win over the Warriors on a cold and wet evening in Auckland. The Panthers closed 9.5-point favourites for the game, and whilst the Warriors started well and dominated the early field possession, it always looked like they weren’t quite in the same class as the Panthers. Nathan Cleary had the ball on a string, with his short kicking game as good as I’ve seen in the conditions, as he suffocated the life out of the Warriors with forced dropout after forced dropout. The Panthers didn’t really seem to get out of second gear in attack, but they’ll need to be a lot more clinical if they’re going to score the points required to beat the Bulldogs this week.
Statistically, the Panthers dominated yardage, running for 350 metres more than the Warriors, and forcing 45 missed tackles from the Warriors. They will need to be far better with their discipline though, especially considering how loud the crowd will be on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers last week conceded 8 penalties, with the majority of them being deep yardage penalties which really helped the Warriors out of their own end consistently.
Aside from Cleary, Isaiah Papali’i was the best of the Panthers, coming off the bench and providing real impetus as he ran for 182 metres on 19 runs, scoring a try and breaking the line. Dylan Edwards again looked devoid of confidence though, as he made two errors, only ran for 151 metres, and appeared lost at sea when the Warriors put the ball in the air. Expect plenty of bombs this week from the Bulldogs to test Edwards at the back.
Bulldogs vs Panthers Recent History
The Panthers have absolutely dominated the recent rivalry between these teams, winning eight straight since 2020, before the Bulldogs got by them just three weeks ago in round 26, beating the Panthers reserve grade team 28-4. There’s absolutely nothing that can be taken from that game, and it should not even rate a mention in your handicap.
The teams also squared off a little under three months ago in round 17 at CommBank Stadium, in a game I think it’s much more realistic to take some information from. The Bulldogs closed 1.5-point road favourites, with a very small total of 41.5. In one of the games of the season, the Panthers snuck by the Bulldogs 8-6, in a game the Bulldogs definitely had the better of. It was a game that really turned the Panthers’ season around, and made several pundits once again sit up and take notice that the Panthers may be a team that can contend.
Dylan Edwards was massive in the game, and he would love to match it this week, running for 298 metres, breaking the line once, and setting up another line break. Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo were also huge for the Panthers, as their big-name stars turned it on in a game that very much had a finals feel to it. This week should be absolutely no different.
Panthers to get the win and move one step closer to Five
The Panthers opened as 6.5-point favourites shortly after defeating the Warriors on Saturday evening, as the first semi-final was confirmed between these two teams. Money poured in on the Panthers early, pushing this to 10.5, before team lists dropped that looked far more optimistic for the Bulldogs, bringing the number back to 8.5. Panthers backers were straight back on the other end and have pushed this back to 9.5, juiced on the Panthers. It appears as though there will be genuine push/pull in this market throughout the week, with the number likely to close between 8.5 and 10.5. I must be missing something here, as I make this at most a small Panthers advantage and would make my fair spread Panthers -4.5. If we remember back to round 17, where the Panthers were at home, the Bulldogs closed 1.5-point favourite on the road. To get to 9.5 here is close enough to a 16-point difference in the closing spreads, and I cannot get to this. Yes, the Bulldogs have struggled to finish the season, but the Panthers haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire, and this spread is essentially saying the Bulldogs are rated as lowly as the Warriors were last week, which is below an average team. I can’t have it and am on the Bulldogs to cover the spread here, with a huge home crowd backing them all the way. I also like backing Panthers 1-12, as I do believe the Panthers will just have a little too much for the Doggies here, but it should be close.
Looking at the total, and it opened 38.5 and has been bet up slightly to 39.5, more than likely due to the game being played on Sunday afternoon. I would make a fair total 36.5 and would not at all be surprised to see another 8-6 type of game here. Whilst I very much like the under here, I prefer the spread and the margin betting, so it won’t be a best bet.
Bulldogs (+9.5)
$1.95 (2.5 Units)
Bulldogs vs Panthers Player Prop Bet: Kiraz too Tall for To’o
Our Best Prop Bet: Kiraz 1+ Try
I would be incredibly surprised if Ciraldo’s game plan doesn’t involve an aerial assault on the back three for the Panthers, and with Kiraz having a significant height advantage over To’o, expect him to get the lions share of chances through the air.
Jacob Kiraz (1+ try)
$2.75
Same Game Multi: Bulldogs vs Panthers
Leg 1: Panthers (1-12) – See write up above
Leg 2: J Kiraz (1+ try) – See above player prop bet.
Leg 3: C McLean (1+ try) – The take-off of the young Panthers’ centres career could well be that round 17 clash against the Bulldogs. Having come in under plenty of pressure to retain his starting spot in the centres, McLean more than held his own against the best centre in the game Crichton and has gone from strength to strength ever since. With no Crichton this week for the Dogs, expect McLean to ball out.
SGM Odds: $12.00 at Dabble
Bulldogs vs Panthers Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday, 21st September
Location: Accor Stadium – Sydney Olympic Park
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Weather: Sunny, 20 degrees
Odds: Bulldogs ($3.45) vs Panthers ($1.32)
Line: Panthers (-9.5)
Points: 39.5
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