Preliminary final weekend in the AFL kicks off on Friday night with a blockbuster clash between Geelong and Hawthorn at the MCG. They’re two of the league’s most dominant forces over the last 20 and even 50 years and are of course the fiercest of rivals!
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Geelong vs Hawthorn Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL First Preliminary Final
Will the Extra Rest Benefit the Cats?
The air at the MCG will be thick with a mix of anticipation and familiar animosity as two of the AFL’s modern-day rivals, Geelong and Hawthorn, clash in a blockbuster preliminary final. The Cats, having secured a crucial week-one finals bye with a commanding win over the reigning premiers, Brisbane, enter the contest as the clear-cut favourites. Their season has been a masterclass in sustained excellence, finishing second on the ladder with a stellar 17-6 record.
Geelong’s dominance is built on a potent forward line, led by Coleman Medalist Jeremy Cameron, who has booted an incredible 85 goals for the season. Their dynamic midfield duo of Max Holmes and Bailey Smith has been running rampant and has added a new layer of speed and class to the Cats' engine room, while the ever-reliable Tom Atkins leads the competition in tackles. This blend of star power and role players has made Geelong a near-unstoppable force, and they’ll be confident that their two-week break has them primed and ready for the grand final push.
Hawks Riding Wave of Momentum
The Hawthorn story is one of a scrappy, underdog crusade. The Hawks, who snuck into the finals in eighth position, have already defied all expectations. They’ve become the first eighth-placed team to reach a preliminary final since 2015, carving a path of destruction through their elimination and semi-final opponents.
Their stunning 34-point semi-final victory over the minor premiers, Adelaide, on the road in front of a hostile crowd, was a testament to their grit and determination. Led by the evergreen Jack Gunston, who kicked five goals in that semi-final, the Hawks have found a new gear in September. Newcombe in particular has been dominant, continuing a brilliant run of form that has seen him play a crucial role in all four of his career finals matches. Hawthorn’s ball movement has been fast and efficient, and they’ve shown they can withstand immense pressure on the big stage. Now, they face their fiercest foe with a shot at history on the line.
Cats vs Hawks Recent H2H History
The history between these two clubs in recent years has been a study in contrasts. While there have been some famously close encounters, Geelong has firmly turned the tide in their favor. The Cats have won their last four meetings, with the margins showing a clear dominance. Their most recent meeting on Easter Monday earlier this year was a seven-point thriller, but the three wins against the Hawks before that were all by more than six goals, including a massive 82-point victory in 2023 and a 36-point win in 2024. This demonstrates that while Hawthorn can challenge, the Cats have the ability to break games wide open and demoralize their opponents.
The rivalry has been a staple of the modern AFL era, consistently producing must-watch games. The last time they met in a final was the 2016 qualifying final, a two-point nail-biter that went Geelong's way. While Hawthorn has shown they can win on the road and against top-tier opposition this September, the Cats have had their number in recent seasons and will be looking to continue that trend.
Who Makes the Grand Final? Here’s Our Cats vs Hawks Tip
Ultimately, while Hawthorn's fairytale run has been captivating, it's difficult to see them overcoming a Geelong side that looks every bit like a premiership contender. The Cats' week off will be a massive advantage, allowing them to rest and strategize while the Hawks have been forced into a grueling two-week finals campaign.
Geelong's proven ability to perform in preliminary finals, a stage many of their players have experienced multiple times, will be a key factor when the game is on the line. Hawthorn will put up a valiant fight, but the depth, experience, and class of the Cats will shine through. Look for Geelong to not just win, but to cover the -9.5 spread as they book their place in the 2025 AFL Grand Final.
Geelong –9.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
Geelong vs Hawthorn Prop Bet
Our Best Prop Bet: Dangerfield 2+ Goals
The champ has been a little bit quieter on the goal front in recent weeks but I expect that to change on the big stage on Friday night. The aging Dangerfield should be cherry ripe having played just once in the last three weeks, so he’ll be ready to be at his explosive best. On top of that, Danger kicked three goals when these clubs met at the MCG in Round 6. Back him in to have a big game.
Patrick Dangerfield 2+ Goals
$2.70
Geelong vs Hawthorn Same Game Multi
Geelong to Win: See best bet above. The Cats have had the wood over the Hawks for a while now and I expect their experience to get them over the line here.
Patrick Dangerfield Anytime Goal Scorer: See best prop bet above. Danger is averaging 1.3 goals per game this season and with extra rest under his belt, he should be firing on Friday night.
Dylan Moore Anytime Goal Scorer: Dylan Moore has put together another strong season. He’s been hitting the scoreboard regularly of late, kicking at least one goal in nine of his last 11 matches.
Tom Stewart 20+ Disposals: He’s had another injury-interrupted season but has gotten back close to his best in recent weeks. 20+ disposals in each of his last three and four of his last five outings.
Same Game Multi Odds: $4.50 at Dabble
Geelong vs Hawthorn Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Friday, September 17th 2025
Time: 7:40pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Weather: 21 degrees, light rain
Odds: Geelong $1.55 vs Hawthorn $2.45
Line: Geelong –9.5
Points: 163.5
Where to Watch Geelong vs Hawthorn
You can watch the Cats vs Hawks clash on Channel 7 or live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back In our Geelong vs Hawthorn Tips at Dabble!
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