AFL Saturday in Round 23 is headlined by an absolute cracking matchup between two contenders which sees Adelaide play host to Collingwood. The Crows have surged into premiership favoritism and the team they’ve overtaken is none other than the Magpies,
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Adelaide vs Collingwood Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 23
Adelaide are the Team to Beat
A potential finals preview awaits on Saturday night as the ladder-leading Adelaide Crows host a struggling Collingwood outfit at the formidable Adelaide Oval. The Crows are the competition's form team, entering this blockbuster clash on the back of seven consecutive victories. Their home ground has become a fortress where they have won their last eight games, dismantling opponents with a powerful and efficient brand of football. Averaging nearly 15 goals a game at home, Matthew Nicks' side has surged to premiership favouritism. While they survived a scare against West Coast last week, their overall body of work has been immense, built on midfield dominance and a multi-pronged forward line that has overwhelmed the best defences in the league. Sitting atop the AFL ladder, the Crows look every bit the team to beat heading into September.
Are Collingwood Finished?
In stark contrast, Collingwood stumbles into Adelaide in the midst of a crisis of confidence. Once looking invincible, the Magpies have lost four of their last five matches, a dramatic form slump that has seen them slide from the top of the ladder and exposed significant cracks in their system. Their once-potent offence has dried up, averaging a paltry 69 points across their recent losses, highlighted by a season-low 46-point effort in a humiliating 64-point thrashing from Hawthorn. Craig McRae's side appears fatigued, their defensive structures are being easily broken down, and key players look out of form at the worst possible time. The trip to Adelaide Oval to face the red-hot Crows presents a monumental challenge as they desperately seek to revive their flagging premiership hopes.
Recent History
History, however, tells a fascinatingly different story. In one of the modern era's most lopsided head-to-head records, Collingwood has been Adelaide's bogey team, winning the last ten consecutive encounters between the clubs, a streak stretching back to 2016. Remarkably, the last three clashes have been decided by a combined total of just 16 points, including a nail-biting 10-point Magpies victory at the MCG earlier this season. Despite their recent struggles, the Magpies will hold a significant psychological edge, knowing they have consistently found a way to overcome the Crows, regardless of form or venue.
Crows or Magpies: Here’s Our Adelaide vs Collingwood Tip
Despite Collingwood's incredible head-to-head dominance, it's impossible to ignore the vast chasm in the two teams' current form. Adelaide is playing with a confidence and synergy that the Magpies can only dream of right now. The Crows' power at the contest and their scoring prowess at home should prove too much for a Collingwood side that looks lost and defensively vulnerable. While the Magpies' historical advantage makes this an intriguing contest, the Crows are a different beast in 2025. Expect Adelaide to finally break the long-standing hoodoo and make a powerful statement, covering the -14.5 point spread in the process.
Adelaide -14.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Adelaide vs Collingwood Prop Bet
Our Best Player Prop Bet: Thilthorpe 3+ Goals
The Magpies have been absolutely leaking goals to key forwards over the past month and that’s alarming considering the Crows are stacked with them. Leading the charge is Thilthorpe who’s putting together an impeccable season and will be licking his lips. He’s kicked 3, 4, and 3 over the past three weeks and kicked a bag of six just over a month ago. Expect another big game from him.
Riley Thilthorpe 3+ Goals
$2.25
Adelaide vs Collingwood Same Game Multi
Adelaide to Win: See Best Bet
Thilthorpe 3+ Goals: See Best Prop Bet.
Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals: He’s been copping heavy tags of late and for good reason. He was quiet last week, so expect him to bounce back in a big way.
Same Game Multi Odds: $4.60 at Dabble
Adelaide vs Collingwood Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday 16th August
Time: 7:35pm AEST
Location: Adelaide Oval
Odds: Adelaide $1.44 vs Collingwood $2.80
Line: Adelaide –14.5
Points: 163.5
Where to Watch Adelaide vs Collingwood
You can watch the Crows vs Magpies clash live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our Adelaide vs Collingwood Tips at Dabble!
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