The twilight fixture in Round 17 of the 2025 AFL season presents one of the most lopsided contests you’ll see all year, as Geelong host Richmond at GMHBA Stadium. The Cats are as short as $1.02 to secure the win, which tells you all you need to know about what is likely to transpire.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Cats vs Tigers below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Geelong vs Richmond Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 17
Cats to Bounce Back
The Cats' last outig prior to the bye, saw them deliver arguably their worst performance of the season, suffering a significant defeat at the hands of the Brisbane Lions. However, the subsequent bye week has provided Chris Scott's men with a crucial opportunity to reset, regroup, and freshen up, allowing them to address any issues and prepare for the second half of the season. Geelong began the round comfortably positioned in fourth spot on the ladder and eyeing a strong run towards September. In terms of selection, the Cats have made just one change, with George Stevens set to make his AFL debut, replacing the influential Tyson Stengle, who is unavailable due to personal reasons.
Tiring Tigers
Richmond, on the other hand, finds themselves in a vastly different and increasingly challenging position. While they managed to pull off a few impressive upset wins earlier in the season, the young Tigers appear to be visibly tired as the season progresses. Their ongoing rebuild means they are heavily reliant on developing talent, and this youthfulness has translated into a struggle to run out games consistently. Their recent form is particularly alarming; last week, the Tigers were comprehensively beaten by Adelaide, suffering a 68-point defeat, which came on the heels of a 79-point thrashing by the Western Bulldogs the week prior. This extends their losing streak to six games. Compounding their woes, key forward Tom Lynch will also miss the next five games due to suspension, leaving a significant void in their attacking structure and further highlighting the challenges facing Adem Yze's side.
Key Stats and Recent H2H
The Cats boast an incredible record of having won each of their last 16 home matches following a home loss, showcasing their remarkable ability to bounce back and protect their fortress. This statistic alone speaks volumes about their resilience and determination. Furthermore, Geelong has largely had the upper hand over Richmond in recent times, winning four of their last five meetings with the Tigers. Geelong consistently ranks among the league's elite for efficiency, contested possession, and defensive solidity, whereas Richmond's developing list has struggled to consistently match these metrics throughout the year, particularly in the latter stages of games.
Cats by How Much? Here’s Our Geelong vs Richmond Tip
Given Geelong's formidable home record, their refreshed state after the bye, and Richmond's current abysmal form – marked by heavy losses, a lengthy losing streak, and the significant absence of Tom Lynch – it's incredibly difficult to foresee anything other than a monumental victory for the Cats. The -60.5 spread, while large, seems entirely achievable for a Geelong side eager to reassert its premiership credentials against a fatigued and depleted Richmond outfit. Expect the Cats to control the game from the outset, dominating the midfield, converting their opportunities with ruthless efficiency, and ultimately securing a huge home win.
Geelong –60.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Geelong vs Richmond Prop Bet
Our Best Player Prop Bet: Cameron 4+ Goals
Jeremy Cameron enters Round 17 eight goals clear at the top of the Coleman Medal leaderboard, and there’s every chance he enters Round 18 with an even bigger lead. Cameron gets a look at young, tired, and depleted Tigers at home on Saturday and should have a huge day. He’s kicked 7, 6, 5, 0, 6, 4 across the past six weeks and remains very nice value to kick another big bag on Saturday.
Jeremy Cameron 4+ Goals
$2.35 (2 Units)
Geelong vs Richmond Same Game Multi
Gryan Miers Score Anytime: Miers isn’t a massive goalkicker but he has been hitting the scoreboard lately with at least one goal in each of his last four matches. He should get some looks here.
Bailey Smith 30+ Disposals: Arguably the hardest runner in the competition and he’s averaging 32 disposals per game. He should have another huge day at the office.
Sam Banks 20+ Disposals: He’s got the nice roll off half back and has been taking some kickouts as well. The ball should spend plenty of time down his end, and he’s had 20+ disposals in six of his last seven games.
Geelong vs Richmond Betting Odds & Match Info
Location: GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Odds: Geelong $1.02 vs Richmond $15
Where to Watch Geelong vs Richmond?
You can watch Cats vs Tigers live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Tail our Geelong vs Richmond Tips at Dabble!
