Super Saturday in AFL Round 17 includes four fixtures and it all kicks off at Marvel Stadium from 12:35pm AEST with a matchup between Essendon and Gold Coast. The Bombers are languishing in 13th place on the ladder and are playing for pride, while the Suns are currently 8th and will be desperate to secure the win.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Bombers vs Suns below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Essendon vs Gold Coast Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 17
Same Old Bombers
The second Friday night fixture of AFL Round 17 sees Essendon host Gold Coast, with both teams carrying narratives of inconsistency into the clash. The Bombers are currently enduring a torrid patch of form, having lost their last four games in succession. Their most recent outing before the bye was a disappointing 41-point defeat to Fremantle, which followed an even more alarming 95-point thrashing at the hands of Geelong. This recent slide has unfortunately continued a familiar trend for Essendon, who have developed a reputation for starting seasons in positive fashion only to fade dramatically in the second half. The bye week offered a chance to reset, and the return of key players in Jordan Ridley and Sam Durham provides a much-needed boost, offering some hope that the Bombers can arrest their alarming slump and show a more competitive performance at home.
Suns Push for Maiden Finals Berth
On the other side of the ledger, the Gold Coast Suns arrive in Melbourne with a clear objective: to make the finals for the very first time in their club's history. Their aspirations received a significant boost last weekend with an important victory over the struggling Melbourne Demons, a win that snapped their own three-game losing streak. Like Essendon, the Suns have also battled with a history of starting seasons strongly only to falter as the year progresses. However, under new coaching, there's a renewed sense of belief and determination within the Suns' camp that this season could be different, and a win against the Bombers is crucial to keeping their maiden finals dream alive.
Key Stats and Recent H2H
A look at the key advanced statistics and recent head-to-head results paints a concerning picture for Essendon. The Gold Coast Suns have had the Bombers' measure in recent times, winning their last two meetings. Statistically, Essendon's defensive frailties are evident, as they concede the fourth most points on average in the competition. The Suns, conversely, demonstrate strength in crucial areas of the game. They rank third in the league for contested possession differential, indicating their dominance at the stoppages, while the Bombers sit a distant tenth in the same metric. Furthermore, Gold Coast is third in the league for clearances compared to Essendon's eighth, and perhaps most tellingly, the Suns are second in the competition for inside 50s, showcasing their ability to generate scoring opportunities, whereas the Bombers are fourth last in this vital statistic.
Suns too Good? Here’s Our Essendon vs Gold Coast Tip
Given these significant statistical discrepancies and the contrasting motivations of the two sides, the Gold Coast Suns appear well-placed to cover the -20.5 spread. This is a monumental game for the Suns and their finals aspirations, and they will be approaching it with an intensity and focus that Essendon, despite their home ground advantage and returning players, may struggle to match. Gold Coast's superior ability to win the ball in contested situations, generate clearances, and drive the ball inside 50 with regularity should overwhelm a vulnerable Essendon defence. Expect the Suns to capitalise on their strengths and secure a comfortable victory, further solidifying their push for a historic finals berth.
Gold Coast –20.5
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Essendon vs Gold Coast Prop Bet
Our Best Player Prop Bet: Ainsworth 2+ Goals
Ben Ainsworth has been in solid goal kicking form over the last couple of months and remains strong value in the multiple goals markets. In the past five games that he’s started he’s kicked at least two goals in four of them, yet you can still get better than $3 odds at most bookmakers. The Bombers have also been leaking big scores this season and are averaging the fourth most points against per game, so there will be plenty of chances on offer.
Ben Ainsworth 2+ Goals
$3.50 (0.5 Units)
Essendon vs Gold Coast Same Game Multi
Jye Caldwell 25+ Disposals: he’s putting together a really consistent season and has reached the 25 disposal mark in five straight games.
Ben Ainsworth Score Anytime: As mentioned above, Ainsworth has been regularly hitting the scoreboard and I expect that to continue against the Bombers.
Touk Miller Score Anytime: Touk has also been hitting the scoreboard this season as he’s playing a lot of half forward. He’s kicked at least one goal in 10 of his 14 matches.
Essendon vs Gold Coast Betting Odds & Match Info
Location: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Odds: Essendon $3.40 vs Gold Coast $1.32
Where to Watch Essendon vs Gold Coast?
You can watch Bombers vs Suns live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Tail our Essendon vs Gold Coast Tips at Dabble!
