AFL Round 17 continues on Friday night with a rare double-header for fans to sink their teeth into. First up is a blockbuster at the MCG between olds rivals Carlton and Collingwood. The Magpies will start as the hot favourites and rightly so, while the Blues are under immense pressure to improve on a couple of horror performances.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Blues vs Magpies below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Carlton vs Collingwood Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 17
Blues Nightmare Continues
The AFL Round 17 opener on Friday night presents a stark contrast in fortunes as a struggling Carlton side faces the dominant Collingwood Magpies. The Blues enter this highly anticipated clash in truly horrible form, with their last two weeks painting a grim picture. Last weekend, Michael Voss's men were comprehensively beaten by Port Adelaide, succumbing to a demoralising 50-point defeat that highlighted significant structural and effort issues. In response to their recent woes, Voss has swung the axe at selection, making a significant six changes to the side, four of which were unforced, signalling a desperate attempt to ignite a spark and find a winning formula. The pressure is mounting on the Blues, and they will be eager to show a vastly improved performance against their fierce rivals.
Consistent Magpies
Collingwood arrives at the MCG sitting comfortably atop the AFL ladder, a commanding ten points clear of their nearest competitor with an impressive 13 wins and just two losses for the season. While they weren't at their absolute best last week against the bottom-of-the-ladder West Coast Eagles, the Magpies still managed to secure a comfortable victory by over four goals, demonstrating their ability to grind out wins even when not firing on all cylinders. This consistent performance is a hallmark of Craig McRae's experienced Magpies, who continue to find ways to win, showcasing resilience, tactical nous, and a deep understanding of their game plan, making them the benchmark of the competition.
Stats and Recent H2H Results
Delving into the advanced statistics reveals just how challenging this matchup is for Carlton. The Blues currently rank last in the league for disposal efficiency, indicating a significant issue with ball use and execution. Compounding this, they also sit last for turning inside 50s into scores, highlighting their inability to capitalise on forward entries – a critical flaw against an efficient opponent. However, one area where Carlton does excel is contested possessions, ranking first in the competition, suggesting their effort at the coalface remains strong. In stark contrast, Collingwood's efficiency shines through their numbers: they rank first in the league for scores per inside 50, showcasing their ultra-efficient forward line, and are also second for scores off turnover, demonstrating their ability to punish opposition mistakes. Historically, the Magpies have had the measure of the Blues, winning six of their last seven encounters, including a hard-fought 17-point victory in wet conditions back in Round 4 this year.
Blues or Magpies? Here’s Our Carlton vs Collingwood Tip
Considering the form, statistical advantages, and recent history, it's difficult to look past Collingwood covering the -27.5 spread. The Magpies are simply far too efficient and clinical for the wasteful Blues, and their superior stability and settled game plan give them a significant edge. While Carlton will undoubtedly be desperate to make amends for their recent poor performances and will bring intensity to the contest, Collingwood's consistent excellence and ability to convert opportunities should see them emerge victorious once again, and by a comfortable margin. Expect the Magpies to reinforce their premiership credentials with another strong showing.
Collingwood –27.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Carlton vs Collingwood Prop Bet: Daicos Delight
Our Best Player Prop Bet: Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals
We’re keeping it pretty simple with our player prop bet for this match by backing in Nick Daicos for 30+ disposals. He’s coming off 34 disposals against the Eagles last weekend and has had 30+ in four of his last five outings. He did get the Hewett matchup when the sides met in Round 4 this year, but it was more of a head-to-head rather than a hard tag. I expect the Magpies midfield to get on top here and for Nick to be at the forefront of that.
Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals
$2.15 (1 Unit)
Carlton vs Collingwood Same Game Multi
Collingwood to Win – They just have a massive class edge over the Blues and should be winning comfortably.
Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals – He's in career-best form and is averaging 2.5 goals per game this season.
Zac Williams Anytime Goal Scorer – He's consistently hitting the scoreboard albeit with most 1s and 2s. Still, Williams has kicked at least one goal in six straight games for a total of 12 goals over that span.
Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals – As mentioned above in our player prop bet section, Daicos is a great price for 30+ disposals considering his recent form.
Carlton vs Collingwood Betting Odds & Match Info
Odds: Carlton $4.50 vs Collingwood $1.20
Where to Watch Carlton vs Collingwood?
You can watch Blues vs Magpies on Channel 7 or live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Tail our Carlton vs Collingwood Tips at Dabble!
