The King’s Birthday Eve blockbuster sees Carlton and Essendon go head to head with the Blues in desperate need of a victory. A massive crowd will be in attendance for what is set to be an intriguing game.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Blues vs Bombers below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Carlton vs Essendon Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 13
Can the Blues get going?
Coming into this season Carlton was expected to be top four contenders after playing finals in the previous two seasons, however the Blues have looked well off the pace with a 4-7 record to be sitting in 13th place. Carlton’s last defeat before the bye was emblematic of their main issues over the past few years. Against GWS Carlton recorded +38 contested possessions, +11 inside 50’s and +4 clearances, but were beaten by 28 points. They don’t have any issues winning the ball at the source, but their ability to move the ball off half back and deliver the ball inside 50 is absolutely woeful. Fortunately for Michael Voss’ side they have a soft fixture over the next month with games against the Bombers, Eagles, Kangaroos and Power.
How long can the Bombers hold on for?
With the worst injury list in the comp featuring ten players out that are above 190cm, Essendon looked set to be massacred by Brisbane on the road last week when the Lions jumped out to a 32 point lead. However the young Bombers gritted their teeth and found a way to get back into the contest, hitting the front in the fourth quarter. The reigning premiers would hold on for a win, but the Bombers showed plenty of promise. The big concern for Brad Scott is that Carlton’s biggest strength arguably lies in their key positions stocks in the front half with Charlie Curnow and Tom De Koning. WIth Jayden Laverde being the Bombers only defender above 190cm, things could get ugly if the Blues forwards get good supply.
The stats that matter
Essendon are ranked 16th for points per game scoring just 74 points per game, and with wet conditions set for Sunday night’s clash it doesn’t look like it will suit Essendon. The Bombers rank 1st in the AFL for disposals, 1st for handballs and 5th for marks, they like to possess and control the game between the arcs, something that will be difficult to do on Sunday.
On the other hand Carlton’s brand of football should suit the conditions well. The Blues rank 1st in the competition for contested possessions, 4th for clearances and 5th for inside 50’s. A territory based game in the wet will suit Carlton and their bigger bodies nicely.
Blues or Bombers? Here’s our Carlton vs Essendon Tip
It’s perfectly set up for the Blues, with conditions completely in their favour for their style, and a massive injury list for Essendon. Carlton also comes into the game fresh off the bye, which should help their midfield too. The Blues have had a strong recent record against Essendon, winning four of their last five matches against the Bombers.
Apart from last week, when Essendon have lost this season, they’ve lost big. In their five defeats in 2025, the average losing margin is 47 points, so even though the conditions aren’t brilliant on Sunday night, the line of -13.5 should not provide any issues for Carlton. Their big bodied mids and tall forwards will have a field day against the undermanned Dons, and cruise to a comfortable win.
Carlton -13.5
$1.88 (2 Units)
Carlton vs Essendon Prop Bet: Curnow’s Time
Our Best Prop Bet: Charlie Curnow 4+ Goals
Despite Carlton’s struggles, two time Coleman Medalist Charlie Curnow continues to hit the scoreboard. Curnow’s last six weeks have produced returns of 3, 3, 3, 2, 3 and 4 goals, and should be primed for a massive game against a decimated Essendon defence.
Charlie Curnow 4+ Goals
$2.70 (1 Unit)
Carlton vs Essendon Same Game Multi
Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals: He hasn’t been at his best in 2025, but the Brownlow Medalist continues to find the footy. Cripps has reached the 25+ disposal mark in five of his last six games, with his only miss a 24 disposal game against the Crows.
Nic Martin 25+ Disposals: Nic Martin has been red hot over the last month, with returns of 29, 35, 25 and 38 disposals in his last four games. Martin has loved playing on King’s Birthday Eve against the Blues, with performances of 26 and 30 disposals.
Tom De Koning Anytime Goalscorer: With Harry McKay out of the side and youngster Hudson O’Keefe coming into the 23, it’s safe to say Tom De Koning looks set to spend more time forward against an undersized Bombers defence.
Same Game Multi Odds: $4.20 at Dabble
Carlton vs Essendon Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 8th June
Time: 7:20pm AEST
Location: MCG
Weather: Heavy showers and high winds, 11 degrees
Odds: Carlton ($1.46) vs Essendon ($2.75)
Line: Carlton -13.5
Points: 149.5
Where to Watch Carlton vs Essendon?
You can watch Carlton vs Essendon Live on 7 or Kayo Sports.
Back in our Carlton vs Essendon Tips at Dabble!
