What a way to finish NRL Round 12, as the Raiders head across the ditch to take on the Warriors in a battle of two unlikely top 4 teams. With both teams far exceeding expectations through the opening three months of the competition, this matchup should be an absolute cracker, and could have huge ramifications in a few months’ time. Let’s get into the game of the round!
Ben brings you his preview and best bets for this clash below and if you’re keen to play along, simply join Neds via this link!
New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders
Location: Go Media Stadium - Auckland
Date: Sunday, 25th May
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Odds: Warriors ($1.78) vs Raiders ($2.05)
Line: Warriors (-1.5)
Points: 43.5
Match Preview
The Warriors come into this home game with the Raiders as winners of five straight games, the biggest winning streak in the NRL. Last week, they continued that run, beating the Dolphins 16-12 at Suncorp Stadium. The Warriors looked to have the game in the bag, comfortably leading 16-0 after 71 minutes, however they allowed two late converted tries which made the scoreline look a little closer than it probably should have been.
The Raiders took on the Titans last week, and were never really troubled at home, cruising to a 40-24 victory. Whilst Ricky Stuart will have some concerns about his team’s defence, their attack is special this season, and there is a genuine feel of a top 4 team this season in the Raiders. With the second-best attack in the league, could we see the return of Ricky Stuart to another Grand Final?
These teams met in the season opener in Las Vegas, with the Warriors closing 2.5-point favourites, with a total of 44.5. It was all the Green Machine, as they ran in five tries to two, winning 30-8 in a statement win to kick off their season. It was probably the worst performance we’ve seen all year from the Warriors, with their only other loss coming to the Storm. Can the Warriors turn it around and get some revenge though? I believe they can.
The Warriors opened 2.5-point home favourites, with Raiders money coming into market and driving the price down to 1.5. My number is pretty similar, with this game between two of the more evenly matched teams in the NRL. I can’t split these teams, and the smart money is surely on this being a tight finish.
The total opened 44.5 and it hasn’t moved all week. My fair total sits at 45, so I don’t see a tonne of value here. The Raiders have been a heavy overs team, whilst the Warriors have been more unders. No play here.
So, the only play to make here in my opinion is to bet for this one to be close. The Warriors have the most 1-12 margin wins this season (6) tied with the Rabbitohs, whilst the Raiders are next with 5. This should be a tight one, and that’s what we will bet.
Either team to win by 1-10
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Raiders ML In a coin flip game, take the higher odds. The Warriors have lost both games to fellow top 4 teams this season, make it three from three here.
Leg 2: D Watene-Zelezniak (1+ try) – DWZ has looked a little short of a gallop in his first two games back, but this week is the week he breaks his duck for tries this season. The Raiders’ right edge defence is by far the weak link, and DWZ should take advantage.
Leg 3: S Tamale (1+ try) – Six tries in 11 games in his first full season in the top grade, Tamale looks every bit the first grader. Attacking the far weaker right edge of the Warriors, Tamale should be amongst it again this week.
SGM Odds: $7.50 at BoomBet
