A shortened 9-game slate greets us on Monday morning, with 6 games in the early window followed up by a 3-game late window. Unlike last week, there are several games with decent totals, and weather is not believed to be a factor this week. Should be a fun little morning for NFL action, in the third last week of regular season football this season.
Merry Christmas everyone! What better way to enjoy Christmas morning than with some NFL action.Draftstars has a $15,000 contest, with a $1,133 first prize. There are plenty of other contests for everyone to get involved. And if you’re really keen on a chance to win big, there’s a $20 contest with the winner gaining entry into the $150k NFL Star Final. Bring it on! Let’s kick things off.
NFL 2023-24 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 16
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields - $17,160
Fields is the highest priced quarterback in this slate, and I have to agree with the pricing. This week, Fields gets a home game against the Cardinals in a smash matchup. Since week 10, the Cardinals have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns, second-highest completion percentage over expected, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the seventh-highest yards per attempt. Meanwhile, since week 4, Fields has been the QB9 in fantasy, ranking seventh in fantasy points per dropback, 10th in CPOE, and 14th in highly accurate throw rate.
Joe Flacco - $13,110
What a story Joe Flacco has been. Since stepping off his couch a month ago to take over as the Browns’ quarterback, Flacco has led the team to three straight wins, whilst throwing for 939 yards and 7 touchdowns. Flacco gets a plus matchup this week, against a Texans defence that has been slipping lately. Since week 10, the Texans have allowed the third-most passing yards per attempt, fourth-highest yards per attempt, and the sixth-highest completion percentage over expected. Since coming into the team in week 13, Flacco is averaging 44.3 passing attempts, 313 passings yards, and 2.3 touchdowns per game. Huge numbers from the veteran QB.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert - $14,220
Mostert continues to post RB1 numbers, even when he’s not getting the volume he’s been used to seeing, and with 7 touchdowns in his past 4 games, it’s easy to see why. If you’re worried about the fact the Dolphins are taking on the Cowboys vaunted defence, don’t be. Last week, James Cook gashed the Cowboys defence, rushing for 179 yards at 7.5 yards per carry. Mostert should have a field day against this defence, and you can almost guarantee at least one touchdown.
Chuba Hubbard - $12,340
Hubbard’s price has definitely increased, to a point where he is accurately priced in my opinion. However, he could be an extremely valuable point of difference in this slate, as there won’t be many people playing the Panthers’ running back. Hubbard gets a tremendous matchup this week against the Packers, who since week 10 have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. In a predicted low-score matchup, the Panthers will lean on the run game once again here.
Devin Singletary - $11,720
Singletary gets a solid matchup this week against the Browns, and with quarterback C.J. Stroud once again missing out, the Texans will once again rely on the run game to remain competitive. Singletary ranks 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 27th in explosive run rate, whilst the Browns have allowed the sixth-highest rushing touchdown rate, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the highest explosive run rate since week 10. With three games over 20 this season, Singletary has a high upside, for a RB2 price.
Wide Receivers
DJ Moore - $14,950
A great spot for Moore this week, as the Bears take on a Cardinals defence that he should dominate. As mentioned above in the Justin Fields write-up, the Bears should be able to get yards and points against the Cardinals, with the added positive of pleasant weather in Chicago at Christmas time. Since week 10, the Cardinals have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers, and 10th-most PPR points per target to the same. More importantly, against two-high safety looks, Moore has dominated this season, with a 24.5% target share, a 50.7% air-yard share, 2.0 yards per route run, and a 38.1% first-read share. Why is this important? Well, the Cardinals deploy two-high at the highest rate in the NFL. Big week ahead for DJ.
Mike Evans - $13,540
Evans has been brilliant lately, and his connection with Baker Mayfield continues to flourish. In a very similar write-up to that of DJ Moore, Evans will take on a Jags defence that ranks 6th in the league at two-high safety looks. Against two-high, Evans has a 21.5% target share, a 37.5% air-yard share, 2.15 yards per route run, and a 28.4% first-read share. The Jags have also allowed the ninth-most fantasy points, and 10th-highest yards per reception to opposing wide receivers. Evans also seems to play his best at home, with his last three home games ending in scores of 32.2, 29.3, and 20.2.
Calvin Ridley - $12,210
Ridley is a boom or bust option this week, and most weeks in NFL fantasy this season. With Trevor Lawrence questionable to play this week, Ridley could struggle with CJ Beathard throwing him the ball, but I like him to break out this week. This Buccaneers defence has been poor since week 9, allowing the second-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers, and the 11th-highest PPR points per target. Tampa also enjoys deploying their defence in two-high safety looks, with Ridley garnering a 25.6% target share, a 42.4% air-yard share, 2.21 yards per route run, and a 29.4% first-read share against this defence.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride - $10,200
Forget Travis Kelce, Trey McBride is now TE1 in NFL fantasy. Since week 8, he has averaged the most fantasy points per game, whilst garnering a 28.3% target share, 2.54 yards per route run, a 24.5% air-yard share, and a 34% first-read share. He gets another quality matchup this week, with the Bears having allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. I expect McBride to once again be a top 3 TE this week.
Tucker Kraft - $5,000
Kraft is a great value selection at $5k, as he and the Packers take on a Panthers defence that has been good against tight ends this season, giving up the fifth-fewest yards per game, and seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. However, with several key injuries to monitor on the offense for the Packers, Kraft should once again be heavily targeted this week. Since taking over as the TE1 for the Packers, Kraft has averaged 9.5 points per game, with his targets increasing over that span.
D/ST
New York Jets - $7,330
The Jets defence is one of the best in the league, and that only improves when they are playing at home. This week, the Jets will take on a Commanders outfit that has struggled offensively of late with Sam Howell under center. Now, whether Howell plays the entire game, that’s another story, but I don’t believe Jacoby Brissett can light up this Jets defence any better than Howell could. The Commanders have given up the fourth-most takeaways this season, whilst the Jets have 13 takeaways at home. The Jets defence should destroy the Commanders this week.
Chicago Bears - $6,570
The Bears D/ST units have been in elite form of late, with their last five scores being 17, 14, 14, 9, and 7. The Cardinals have been quite safe with the ball this season, giving up just 15 turnovers all season, however the Bears will be making it tough all game in Chicago. The Cardinals also allow the tenth-most sacks in the NFL, and with Montez Sweat bolstering this pass rush, expect the Bears to be in the backfield all game chasing Murray.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
