Yet another Divisional rivalry will close out week 1 of the NFL season, and with plenty of intrigue surrounding both these teams heading into the new season, this is must-watch television. The Bears come in with a new Head Coach in Ben Johnson, who is expected to turn Caleb Williams from a bottom 5 quarterback to a top 10 one, whilst the Vikings essentially have a rookie starting under center in JJ McCarthy. Plenty of questions to be answered on Monday Night Football.
Ben Bridge will dissect the matchup, previewing how things will play out along with his Best Bet. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated NFL match previews for all prime-time NFL games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Mondays. All for free! Show your support for our free content by joining a new Australian betting site today!
NFL Week 1: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago, Tuesday 9th September, 10:15am (AEST)
Last Season
The Bears took the number 1 overall pick into last season’s draft, courtesy of the 2023 trade with the Carolina Panthers, and promptly selected standout USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the number 1 overall pick. Williams struggled as a rookie, despite winning four of their opening six games. The last 12 weeks showed glaring flaws in the rookies game, and he will need to be a lot better this season if the Bears are to challenge for a spot in the playoffs. 27th overall on offense according to Pro Football Focus. On the plus side, the Bears defence was above league average, and if they can lean into that again this season, with a decent improvement from the offense, they will be in the hunt come December.
The Vikings exceeded all expectations last season, as quarterback Sam Darnold took them to a 14-3 record, good enough for the equal second-best record in the Conference. Unfortunately, they shared a division with the Lions who went 15-2, knocking the Vikings to the 5-seed, and a road game against the Rams in week 1. The Vikes were never in the game, and with Sam Darnold once again seeing ghosts, the decision was made to move on from him in the off-season and see what they have in second year signal caller McCarthy. With McCarthy not yet playing a snap in the NFL, the jury is still out, but he is in a tremendous position to hit the ground running this season. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell is known as a QB whisperer, and with a decent offensive line and a legit wide receiver 1, McCarthy has all the tools to succeed this year.
Match Preview
The Bears were slotted in as short 1.5-point favourites on the opening line made for this matchup, however the favourite has flipped through the off-season, with the Vikings now sitting as 1.5-point favourites. This makes sense, given the close in the week 12 game last season in Chicago was Vikings -3, and as such the fact the Bears opened as favourites didn’t make a great deal of sense. I make the Vikings a 1.5-point favourite, so obviously am right on market with this matchup.
The total for this matchup sits on 44, which coincidently is my fair total too. The Bears were a heavy unders team last year (11 overs, 6 unders), however are expected to look a lot better on offense this season under Ben Johnson. This is the exact closing total between the teams when they last met in week 15 last year, however that game was in the dome in Minnesota, and whilst there isn’t expected to be poor weather in Chicago for week 1, it is still a different dynamic. I would lean towards the over, given the two brilliant offensive minds on show here, however I’ll leave it for now.
So, a tough decision to be made here. The Vikings were brilliant last season covering spreads, and despite JJ McCarthy essentially being a rookie, starting on the road in his first game, I’ll take him and the Vikes to get the job done here. Until I see it from Williams, I can’t back him in, and taking the Vikings just to win is the play for mine.
Vikings (-1.5)
$1.95 (2 Units)
Vikings at Bears Prop Bet
Looking at props, and with the Prodigal Son Adam Thielen returning to the Twin Cities to close out his career, I’m going to take him to go over. With no Jordan Addison for the Vikings, Thielen will likely split the number 2 receiving role with TJ Hockenson, but with his receiving yards line in the low 30’s, it’s an easy bet. With McCarthy no doubt looking for an easy target over the middle, expect Thielen to be his safety blanket and be target 5-6 times. He catches 3 of those and this over should hit.
A Thielen over 32.5 receiving yards
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
