Monday Night Football doesn’t always deliver a blockbuster, and this week is a perfect example: the 2–7 Las Vegas Raiders host the slumping Dallas Cowboys in a matchup featuring two desperate teams fighting to keep their seasons alive. But while the on-field quality may be uneven, it’s absolutely a betting opportunity. With the Cowboys coming off a bye and the Raiders riding a three-game skid, this MNF clash sets up beautifully for live betting, player props, and contrarian angles.
We’ll break down both teams’ form, analyse where the matchup will be won, identify exploitable markets, and highlight the props with the most value. If you want to turn your Tuesday morning into a profitable one, you’re in the right place.
NFL Week 11 Cowboys at Raiders Betting Tips
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders step into the national spotlight for the second straight week after falling 10–7 to Denver last Thursday. The mini-bye helped them reset, but the same offensive problems persisted: Las Vegas posted just 188 total yards, averaging a bleak 3.2 yards per play against a Broncos defence ranked top-five in success rate.
Geno Smith’s regression has become a defining storyline of the Raiders’ season. He finished 16/26 for 143 yards and an interception, again failing to push the ball downfield. His time to throw has plummeted in recent weeks simply because he doesn’t have time—the Raiders’ offensive line is one of the worst units in the league right now. They’ve allowed pressure on over 40% of dropbacks since Week 5, bottom-three in the NFL.
Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty had no space to operate either, rushing 19 times for 60 yards (3.1 YPC) despite forcing multiple missed tackles. Jeanty has flashed superstar potential, but until Las Vegas can generate movement up front, his ceiling remains capped.
The defence, however, continues to show fight. The pass rush created consistent pressure, and the secondary—when not asked to defend for eight seconds—held its own. But at some point, this offense needs to score more than 10–17 points. If they can’t threaten this inconsistent Cowboys defence at home, the Raiders might need to start thinking about 2026.
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas enters MNF off a badly needed bye week and a much-needed defensive reshuffle. The Cowboys were aggressive at the trade deadline, acquiring Logan Wilson from Cincinnati and Quinnen Williams, the former Jets All-Pro interior force. Williams immediately becomes the best defensive lineman on the roster and should significantly help a run defence that ranks bottom-eight in EPA per rush allowed.
The last time we saw the Cowboys was in Week 9, where they lost a sloppy Monday Night Football matchup against Arizona, 27–17. The scoreline flatters them—Dallas turned the ball over three times, failed twice on 4th down inside Cardinals territory, and wasted multiple red-zone trips.
Dak Prescott went 24/39 for 250 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, while the big names did produce statistically (Lamb 85 yards, Pickens 79 yards, Williams 83 yards), but the situational execution was dreadful. Brian Schottenheimer’s red-zone play-calling has been a disaster—Dallas ranks 28th in red-zone TD percentage entering Week 11.
The expectation is that with the new defensive additions and two weeks of prep, the Cowboys should look far more organised in this spot.
Matchup Breakdown
The Cowboys opened as 3-point favourites on the lookahead and re-opened at the same number. Early money pushed it to -3.5, before buyback on the Raiders nudged it closer to the key number of 3. The market seems torn—and for good reason.
My number sits slightly under Cowboys -3, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this closes at a flat Dallas -3, a historically important MNF number.
Both teams are unreliable:
- Dallas is 0–2 as a road favourite this season
- The Raiders are 1–4 at home and rarely score more than 20 points
But in prime time, with the hook attached, the only side I would consider is the home dog. The Raiders tend to keep games within one score at Allegiant, and Dallas’ turnover issues make them difficult to trust when laying more than a field goal.
Total Points
The total opened and stayed at 49.5, with neither side attracting serious market movement. Notably, this would be the first Cowboys total under 50 since Week 6.
The Raiders are an unders team, failing to exceed the total in five straight games. Their offense simply cannot keep up its end of the bargain, and with Dallas recommitting to defence after the bye, this shapes as a more controlled, lower-variance game.
Key Players & Prop Markets
Brock Bowers — TE, Raiders
Second-year tight end Brock Bowers has been one of the few bright spots on this Raiders offense. He remains a matchup nightmare, even with inconsistent quarterback play. Bowers owns a 27% target share over his last three healthy games and continues to rack up chunk plays.
Dallas has struggled to cover athletic tight ends all season—surrendering 60+ yards to four straight TE1s.
Play: Over 72.5 receiving yards.
High volume + big-play upside + game script = ideal.
George Pickens — WR, Cowboys
Pickens has quietly become the 1B to Lamb’s 1A, and his receiving yard line sitting 20+ yards below Lamb feels wrong given his recent form. Pickens has cleared this yardage number in four straight games, averaging 7.8 targets per contest.
Against a Raiders secondary allowing the 3rd-highest explosive pass rate since Week 8, Pickens profiles as the best WR value on the slate.
Play: Over mid-60s receiving yards.
Javonte Williams — RB, Cowboys
Williams has been automatic at the goal line:
9 touchdowns in 9 games, and Dallas trusts him inside the 5 more than any back since prime Zeke.
The Raiders have surrendered a rushing TD in six straight games and are bottom-five in defensive red-zone efficiency.
Play:
- Williams Anytime TD
- Williams 2+ TDs (great value at $4+)
Final Thoughts
This is a fascinating betting game because while neither team is playing well, their flaws create opportunity. The Cowboys should move the ball efficiently between the 20s, but if their red-zone woes continue, this could become another grind-it-out affair. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ defence is good enough to keep them in the game—but their offensive line remains a liability.
Expect long drives, stalled red-zone trips, and a game that plays slightly slower than expected.
Prediction: Cowboys 25, Raiders 22
A Cowboys win, a Raiders cover, and an under. Perfect betting script.
Player Prop: George Pickens Over 66.5 receiving yards — $1.90 (1.5u)
Under 49.5 total points
$1.90 (2 Units)
