I’m not entirely sure why, but the NFL has decided on two Monday Night Football games in week 14. Even more puzzling is the fact both games will run concurrently. Go figure. In one game, the hot Green Bay Packers head to New York to take on the Giants, who are fresh off the bye. In the other game, the Titans will try and slow down Tyreek Hill and the high-powered Dolphins offense, as they head to Miami to round out week 14.
Below, we will dissect the matchups, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our best bets. Make sure you are following BeforeYouBet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for all Prime-Time games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Monday’s. All for free!
NFL Week 14 Preview & Betting Tips
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Metlife Stadium, Tuesday 12th December, 12:15pm (AEDT)
The Packers continued their resurgence last week, upsetting the Chiefs at home 27-19 on Sunday Night Football. The Packers have now won three in a row and are back in the playoffs as it stands. Jordan Love has been terrific during the win streak, and last week he managed to throw for 267 yards and 3 touchdowns. The defence also held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to only 210 yards through the air, which shows both sides of the ball are working for the Packers right now.
The Giants are coming off the bye, which came at a rough time for a Giants team that had won two straight prior to the bye. Tommy DeVito holds the starting QB role, after throwing for 191 yards and a touchdown in a 10-7 week 12 victory over the Patriots. It’s hard to tank with a rookie quarterback who is battling for his career, so it’s fair to expect the Giants to put in a full effort moving forward.
These teams last met in week 5 last season, with the Giants coming away 27-22 winners on the road at Lambeau Field. I won’t take too much out of this result, as both teams will be starting different quarterbacks, however it’s recent enough that the Packers will remember this game. Losing at home should be enough to get the Packers right up for this one.
The Packers were 6-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as just 5.5-point favourites after their big win over the Chiefs. They are now an expensive 6-point favourite, which is essentially exactly the number I have in the game. I don’t see any value in the line here, so we move onto the total.
The total was 37 on the lookahead, before re-opening at the same number. The total currently sits at 37, and despite the heavy rain throughout the Jets game at the same venue, the weather report looks all clear for this matchup. The Packers offense has been playing exceptionally well of late, and I like them to score in this matchup. Despite the Giants’ defence looking better on paper over their past two wins, the fact that they have 9 turnovers in that span helps them significantly. Some turnover regression has to hit at some point, and if the Packers can look after the ball, they should get to 21 in this game.
Green Bay Packers Over 20.5 Points
$1.87 (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Tuesday 12th December, 12:15pm (AEDT)
The Titans were involved in a cracking game last week, as they took on AFC South rivals the Indianapolis Colts at home. The Titans had their chances to win, but eventually went down 31-28 in overtime. The Titans ate on the ground, with Derrick Henry going for 102 yards and two touchdowns, and Tyjae Spears managing 74 yards on the ground. They’re going to need more from rookie quarterback Will Levis this week though, as they come up against one of the best run defences in the league in Miami.
Speaking of the Dolphins, they are coming off another huge win, after they dismantled the Commanders last week 45-15. Tyreek Hill was again unstoppable, catching 5 targets for 157 yards and two touchdowns. De’Von Achane also enjoyed a welcome back game, rushing for 73 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins look unstoppable on offense right now, and the Titans will struggle to stop this machine.
These teams last met in week 16 of the 2021/22 NFL season, with the Titans smashing the Dolphins 34-3, behind D’onta Foreman rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown. These teams are very different from the teams that met almost two years ago, and I’ll take nothing from this matchup.
The Dolphins were 11.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as 13-point favourites. The market didn’t think this was enough, with money now pushing the Dolphins out to two touchdown favourites. I have to agree, and even though my numbers say the spread should be only 13.5, I can easily see how this gets out to 14. The nice thing is, there’s still some 13.5’s out there, and if you can find them then this is a bet for me.
As for the total, it went from 44 on the lookahead to 46.5 on re-open, where it currently sits. I like the over, based purely on the fact the Dolphins can hit this by themselves. The Dolphins have played a few lower scoring games, but against a Titans defence that is struggling to stop anyone, I can’t see them stopping the Dolphins here. Dolphins team total is going to be a second play for this game.
Dolphins (Team Total) over 30.5 - $1.94 @ Palmerbet (1.5u)
$1.95 (2 Units)