A Thursday Night Football matchup with huge playoff implications greets us on Friday morning, as the Rams host the Saints in LA. Whoever wins is close to a 75% chance at making the playoffs, and whoever loses drops to below a 25% chance of making. A massive game, and I can’t wait to watch.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our NFL Best Bet. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated NFL betting tips for all primetime NFL games this season, as well as a preview of the main NFL slate on Mondays. All for free!
NFL Week 16 Preview & Betting Tips
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams
SoFi Stadium, Friday 22nd December, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Saints are coming off two easy victories in the past fortnight, as they beat the Panthers 28-6 in week 14, before dominating the Giants last week at home, winning 24-6. The Saints did what they had to do on offense, whilst their defence strangled the Giants all game, allowing just 193 total yards at 3.2 yards per play. Derek Carr was efficient against a solid Giants defence, passing for 218 yards and 3 touchdowns.
This week, they get a Rams offense that has been humming of late. Last week, the Rams won and covered at home against the Commanders, despite losing the turnover battle 2-1. This offense is playing well on the ground, and through the air, and it will be interesting to see if the Saints defence is a fraud that has padded its stats again really poor NFC South offenses all season, or if they are a legitimate top 10 defence. Kyren Williams was dominant on the ground last week, running for 152 yards and a touchdown. He did, however, have two fumbles, and the Rams will want to clean that up moving forward.
Injury Report
Los Angeles Rams
Duke Shelley / Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB) – OUT
Hunter Long (TE) – OUT
Stetson Bennett (QB) – OUT
Joe Noteboom (OG) – Questionable
New Orleans Saints
Andrew Dowell (LB) – OUT
Eno Benjamin (RB) – OUT
Trai Turner / Nick Saldiveri (OG) – OUT
Malcolm Roach (DT) – OUT
Marcus Maye (SS) – OUT
Michael Thomas (WR) – OUT
Payton Turner / Isaiah Foskey (DE) – OUT
Lonnie Johnson (CB) – OUT
Ryan Ramczyk (OT) – OUT
Kendre Miller (RB) – Questionable
Match Preview
These teams last met in Week 11 last season, with the Saints running out 27-20 winners in Louisiana. Andy Dalton started for the Saints, whilst the Rams lost Matt Stafford during the game with a concussion. The game was tight before the loss of Stafford, however surely the Saints were assisted with having to take on Bryce Perkins through the second half of the game. The Rams will want to right this loss, but I won’t factor in much of a revenge factor in my handicap, with the playoff implications surely enough to get both these teams up.
The Rams were 4-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening at the same price, as both teams won and covered last week. Rams’ money has slowly filtered into the market, as they currently sit as 4/4.5-point favourites. I make the Rams a 3-point favourite, so based purely on numbers I do see some value in the Saints at this number. Amazingly, the Saints have only been underdogs twice this season, and once on the road, where they trucked the Patriots 34-0 after closing 2-point underdogs on the road. They also played the Lions close as 4-point home underdogs, going down by 5 points in week 13. The Rams have been great against the spread all season (8-5-1), whilst going 5-2 as favourites.
As for the total, it was 44.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening at the same number. The over has been bet, with the total currently sitting at 46.5. Whilst I do like the over, I’m slightly concerned at the Saints offense in general. Because of this, I’ll lean on the Rams offense to keep cooking and go over their team total. Over their past four games, the Rams have managed to average 33 points a game, with their lowest output being their 28-point performance last weekend. Love the over here for the Rams.
LA Rams (team total) over 24.5
$1.93 (2 Units)
