NBL25 Round 16 is another extremely busy one with 10 games scheduled to play from Thursday night through to Wednesday night. All 10 teams will be on a double-game week and with action on every single night, fans are in for a treat!
We had another great round with our tips in Round 15 where we went 5-3 for +5.74 units, which takes us to 66-46 and +22.3 units for the season. As always, we bring you our best bets for all eight Round 16 games below!
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NBL25 Round 16 Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney Kings vs Melbourne United
Thursday 7:30pm AEDT (Jan 9), Qudos Bank Arena
Tasmania JackJumpers vs Adelaide 36ers
Friday 7:30pm AEDT (Jan 10), MyState Bank Arena
Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers
Saturday 5:30pm AEDT (Jan 11), WIN Entertainment Centre
The Hawks have been one of the top offensive teams this season, shooting an impressive 48.7% from the field and averaging 101 points per game. Add to that their 43.9 rebounds per game, and it’s clear why they’ve been so tough to beat. Their last meeting with the Breakers was a blowout, with the Hawks cruising to a massive 38-point win, and they’ll be looking to do the same again.
The Breakers, on the other hand, have had a rough season. Defensive struggles and turnovers have been a big problem, and those issues were on full display when they last played the Hawks. If they can’t clean that up, it’s going to be a long night for them. The Hawks just need to keep playing their game—move the ball, dominate the boards, and force mistakes from the Breakers. If they do that, it’s hard to see the Breakers putting up much of a fight.
At home, the Hawks should be far too good, especially with the Breakers still missing Parker Jackson-Cartwright due to suspension. The Breakers’ lack of consistency and leadership on the court without their star guard puts them at a clear disadvantage. With the Hawks’ offensive firepower and control on the boards, they’re in prime position to dominate this matchup and secure another convincing win.
Hawks -13.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Brisbane Bullets
Saturday 8:00pm AEDT (Jan 11), Gippsland Sports Stadium
Tasmania JackJumpers vs Perth Wildcats
Sunday 2:30pm AEDT (Jan 12), MyState Bank Arena
The Tasmania JackJumpers take on the Perth Wildcats at MyState Bank Arena in what’s set to be a cracking game. With the Wildcats sitting at 12-9 and the JackJumpers at 12-10, both teams will be desperate to grab a win and stay in the hunt near the top of the standings.
The JackJumpers are coming off a gutsy overtime win against the Adelaide 36ers, showing they’ve got plenty of fight. But injuries are starting to pile up, leaving them a bit shorthanded for this clash. While they’ve been strong at home all season and can rely on the crowd to lift them, the lack of depth could make it tough to keep up with Perth over four quarters.
The Wildcats are in solid form and will see this as a great chance to grab a road win. They’ve been playing smart, balanced basketball and know how to close out tight games. With the JackJumpers missing key players and playing their second game in three days, I’m expecting the Wildcats to have too much firepower for the JackJumpers in this one.
Wildcats to Win
$1.70 (2.5 Units)
Sydney Kings vs Cairns Taipans
Sunday 4:30pm AEDT (Jan 12), Qudos Bank Arena
Sydney, with a 13-10 record, enter this off a heartbreaking two-point loss against United, which made it three losses from their past five games and three from their past four at Qudos Bank Arena. You can potentially expect some changes to their starting lineup on Sunday after multiple slow starts in recent games – they’ve lost each of their last four first quarters.
Cairns, with a 4-16 record, will come into the game with renewed confidence following their impressive win over the Illawarra Hawks. Despite their overall struggles this season, the Taipans have shown they can compete with top teams when they play with intensity and discipline. With nothing to lose, the Taipans will be a dangerous team for all opponents in the run home, particularly now they’re almost fully healthy.
While the Kings are expected to win, Cairns will make this a tough contest. With the Taipans playing with confidence after their upset victory, Sydney will need to be sharp to avoid a potential upset. This game could be closer than many expect, and I’m happy to back the Taipans to cover the big spread here.
Taipans +10.5
$1.95 (2 Units)
New Zealand Breakers vs Melbourne United
Monday 5:30pm AEDT (Jan 13), TSB Stadium
The New Zealand Breakers clawed their way back from a 21-point half time deficit against the Hawks to go down by just eight in their opening game of Round 16. Still, it was their third straight loss since defeating the Snakes in Round 14, which is their only win since Round 9. The good news is Parker Jackson-Cartwright has only one more game remaining on his five-game suspension, so he’ll be back in action next week. Matt Mooney has also drastically improved his productivity in PJC’s absence, and he’ll be key to their chances again on Monday night.
Melbourne United put in a much better effort against the Kings on Thursday night as they recorded an important two-point win to remain in the top two in the standings. That was their second win from three games on their current road trip which will continue when they cross the international border on Monday. Jack White returned to form with 23 points and 10 rebounds against the Kings – his first double-double since December 8.
The Breakers’ season is clearly over and they’re simply playing for pride at this point. In contrast, every game is important for United to ensure they finish in the top two and avoid the Play-In Tournament. I liked the intensity and defensive discipline they played with on Thursday and if they produce similar effort here, then they’ll be far too good. However, it is a sizeable line at -8.5, so I’ll only be playing the one unit here.
United -8.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Adelaide 36ers vs Illawarra Hawks
Monday 7:30pm AEDT (Jan 13), Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Cairns Taipans vs South East Melbourne Phoenix
Tuesday 7:30pm AEDT (Jan 14), Cairns Convention Centre
The Taipans are playing for pride at this point in their season and they’ve done themselves justice with their past two performances. Their win over the Hawks two games back was the biggest NBL upset I can recall, and they nearly backed it up in Sydney last outing before going down by just four points. Both of those games were on the road, and now the Snakes get a chance to play in front of their home fans on Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, the Phoenix came from behind and rolled right over the top of the Bullets in Gippsland in their opening game of Round 16. They ended up winning by 16 points which made it back-to-back wins by a double-figure margin. That’s now seven wins from their past nine outings which has propelled the Phoenix into fifth spot in the standings. On a sour note, Derrick Walton Jnr injured his hamstring against the Bullets and has now been ruled out for the rest of NBL25.
The Phoenix are clearly the better team in this matchup but the injury to DWJ really stings. He was in fantastic form before getting injured and leaves a big hole in terms of playmaking and ball handling. On the flip side, the Snakes are now playing with confidence after some strong performances over the past week and with the home support behind them on Tuesday, there’s no reason why they can’t cause an upset or at least cover the big spread.
Taipans +6.5
$2.00 (1.5 Units)
Brisbane Bullets vs Perth Wildcats
Wednesday 7:30pm AEDT (Jan 15), Brisbane Entertainment Centre
