Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Moonee Valley on Friday, November 23rd.
The Group 1 Kennedy Oaks is the feature of the day and comes up in Race 8. We saw a stack of rain fall on Cup Day but the track drained very well. It’s currently a Soft 6 but I’d expect that to firm up a touch and be racing around the Good 4-Soft 5 range.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race on the card below.
Best Bet: Race 2 Plenty EW
Best Value Bet: Race 4 Lady Vega
Just a small field to start us off here. The favourite is the Weir-trained Brick Top, who won on debut at Warrnambool last prep before some good runs in some of the 2YO features in the bush. First up at 1000m here from barrier 1. I have some concerns with that. I’m siding with Mischa, who resumed with a win at Stawell over 1100m, where he led all the way. If he can jump and find the lead here, he’ll take some catching. The big market move has been for Husslin Humph, the Adelaide raider. He was only 2.4L off the winner in a reasonable form race in Adelaide last start. Jamie Kah comes across for two rides for Will Clarken, this being one of them, which is a good sign that the horse has been targeted toward this race.
Think this is a pretty low race and I’m really expecting a big run from Chris Waller’s Plenty here. He jumped out superbly at Flemington last month and was due to jumpout this morning too, but they opted to come to this race instead. Barrier 1 should see him be able to box seat and I think he’s probably got a bit more talent than the others in this field. There is $6.50 available which looks a terrific price. Scipio is knocking on the door after consecutive placings at Bendigo. He’ll put himself on speed from the wide gate. Elusive Melody is another coming off consecutive placings but as a rule, I tend to take on Henry Dwyer-trained favourites in town. He’s had 18 starters at Moonee Valley in the past 12 months for just three placings. Chorus has his first start for new trainer Symon Wilde so watch the market.
Chevaux finally gets blinkers on tonight after four close-up runs this preparation. He comes back a bit in grade from BM64 company to a Class 1 and he just needs that little bit of a sharpen up to win this, which hopefully the blinkers help do. Born Brad ran 2nd on debut before a good win at Mornington last start. Gets in well with the 3kg claim and barrier 1 so he’s a horse I won’t be losing on. Juthoor won in Adelaide last start over 1250m and drops back ever so slightly to 1200m. Looks to get a good run from barrier 3, while Dominant Gene was good first up and will be hitting the line hard.
Good little race with a few last-start winners. Bold Arial went down as the $1.50 favourite first up but atoned for that with a dominant victory at Bairnsdale last time out. Draws well in barrier 4 for Steph Thornton, who is in great form, and shouldn’t be far away in this. Lady Vega was unwanted on debut but stormed home to win by 1.25L at Ballarat and ran the fastest final 200m of the meeting in the process. She will be coming from off the speed but I’ll definitely be having something on at $6.00. Quora led all the way to record a good win last time out and should be looking to find the rail again tonight while Steamboat Sally has come back well for the Snowden camp and shouldn’t be underestimated.
955m dash and there’s two I’m particularly interested in. Angry Gee has a great record at this track and distance, including a win over Quilista last time we saw him. He resumes from a lengthy spell tonight, which is some sort of query, but he’s got a good fresh record and gets Steph Thornton on from a good barrier. Pravro is going to come from back in the field but he resumed with a great effort over this track and distance and his second up record is good. If they go ridiculously hard out front, which there is always a chance they will, he’ll be hitting the line hard at good odds. Matty and Nodoubtaboutit next best.
Our Gladiator resumes with 63.5kg tonight but the 3kg claim gets him in a bit better at the weights. He resumed with a win at Pakenham last preparation on his way to a dominant win over 955m at this track second up. He’s going to need a good ride from barrier 7 but his overall first up record is good and if he’s ready, he’ll run a good race. Reward With Return had some specking at big odds last start and overcame some bad luck to run a gallant 2nd behind Tbilisi, who looks a good form reference going forward. Similar circumstances for Reward With Return tonight with another big weight and another wide draw, but if it can replicate last start it will certainly go close again. Dennis failed in a much harder race at Flemington last start but drops back heavily in grade and gets the blinkers on for the first time too. Happy to back him in this. Geneva Diva has been well backed at longer odds.
Very low race – a BM64 over 2040m. Expecting Weir to dominate the race as he typically does with these staying events. So You Leica had a decent debut campaign and she’s now had two runs back from a spell this time in. Steps up in distance tonight at her third run back and should take plenty of beating. The less-fancied Weir runner is Midas Prince with John Allen in the saddle. He comes off a maiden win over the mile at Ararat and now rises in trip to the 10 furlongs. He’ll go back from the wide draw and will be grinding home, but you can never rule out the second-elect from the stable. Smokin’ Pierro comes back from a much harder race in Sydney and should be competitive in this grade.
Guipure should be right up on speed, just as she was at Flemington during Cup week when she ran 2nd over 1700m. Barrier 2 and Damian Lane on board, she should take plenty of beating. Play That Song was very good in that same race, running 3rd at big odds. Her third up record is good so I’m expecting another big run tonight. The query is how far back she gets but she’s drawn well with Zahra on and at $5.50 I’m happy to have something on. I’ll also be following my money on Palazzo Vecchio, who travelled into the race beautifully last start before completely fading out of contention. Hopefully that was just due to the saturated track. Back on firm ground tonight, I’ll give her one more chance at good odds. Havana Heat bolted in to win in Adelaide last start and is the second of two rides for Jamie Kah tonight. Respecting.
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