Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, March 1st.
The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the 7m position. We’ve analysed every race on the card and given our selections and best bets below!
Best Bet: Race 3 Semari
Best Value Bet: Race 7 Paseeto
Tricky race to kick off with. Favourite Things comes out of a strong race at Flemington last start behind Microphone, who is likely to start close to favourite in Sydney tomorrow. From barrier 4, Mark Zahra should be able to get on the back of Fact Or Fable and peel out around the turn. Fact Or Fable was sound first up winning at Bendigo. She only won by a nose but there was a gap of 4L back to third, which is always a positive sign. She Shao fly won on debut at Sandown. She’s likely going to have to come from the back of the field and loop them all, which is the main concern with the rail out 7m, but it wouldn’t shock to see her win.
Wonderful Riri brings some solid form to this race having been beaten just 3L by Terbium last start, who then went on to beat Zousain last weekend. She needs to jump well from barrier 1 (she was slow to begin last start) as she risks being hemmed in on the rail if she doesn’t, but she should be highly competitive here. I’d rather take $5.50 about her than $2.25 about Ronan’s Rock. He won well in maiden grade at Sandown last start thanks to a gem of a ride from Damien Oliver. He can definitely win but he’s short enough at the price. I think the value here is Slick Back. He comes into this ready to peak after two 3rd placings from his first two starts this prep. He worked home strongly to be beaten just 0.4L at Moe last start and Mark Zahra takes over tonight. $9.00 looks a decent price.
This race has been hit by scratchings. That leaves me with Semari as a clear top pick. I was originally keen to back it anyway but with two of its main rivals taken out of the field, I’m even keener. This horse basically either wins or doesn’t run a place. With Linda Meech on board from barrier 1, I think they’ll be really positive tonight. Amazingly, this horse is 4/4 when starting favourite, and that looks to be the case again tonight. Mountain Breath was a touch disappointing for mine last start but she now gets up to a distance that really should suit her based on her UK form and she also gets blinkers applied for the first time. Expect sharp improvement. Tahnee Tiara looks the designated leader and could be hard to run down with the rail out if she gets it soft in front.
Columbus Circle would just have to repeat his two efforts to date and he’d be very hard to beat tonight but $1.95 does seem short enough given there’s a few still relatively unexposed in this field. A big positive for him is the fact Hawkshot finished 2nd in the race he finished 3rd in last start, and that horse cam out at his next start and blew the field away in a good race. Drawn well in barrier 3 and Damien Oliver sticks, he should prove very hard to beat. Foxy’s Star bolted in on debut and draws barrier 1 tonight. Should go forward and give a good sight at $17. Radical Candor won on debut by 0.75L but there was 3L back to the 3rd horse which is a good sign. She should roll forward from barrier 7 which gives her a chance at double figure odds with the rail out. Kashiwa next best.
Makahu Boy goes up 2.5kg in the weights tonight but I thought he was a reasonably good price given the form he’s in and his record at this track and distance. From three starts here, he’s won two and run 2nd to Miss Norway at the other. He’ll be burning across from the wide gate and if he finds the front, he will be tough to run down with the rail out. Vainstream comes out of a very strong race behind Rox The Castle and Greyworm, where he was only beaten 1.5L. Craig Williams takes over tonight.
Not overly keen to bet into these staying races. Mosh Music is flying and steps up to 2500m after two wins over 2040m here. I’m never very keen to back horses stepping up so sharply in distance but the horse is going very well and at least he’s in winning form at this track. Surprise Baby has just had the one run over 2000m leading into this and it was in a very strong race behind the promising Schabau. He should find this race significantly easier than that. There could be a bit of value found in both Pleasuring and Anemoi.
Two at double figure odds that appeal in a very competitive race here. Paseeto was terrible first up but there’s every chance he might have just needed the run. Craig Williams is a notable jockey booking for tonight and he’ll be right up on the speed from barrier 1 so at $10 I’ll be having something on. Condor Heroes finished last on his stable debut for the Lindsay Park team but he was caught wide without cover and had excuses. I’ll give him one final chance tonight. He did bleed at the end of last preparation so he could be completely cooked but he started hard in the market first up so I’ll take the better odds tonight and hope he can turn it around. See My Fly has a terrible record at the track but has a great fresh record so he might be able to do something first up at big odds. Time Ford next best.
Two that interest me here. Cristal Eyes has always shown some ability but just failed to put it all together but she returned with a good win first up at Pakenham. She’s drawn to get a good run here with Oliver sticking with her and she should prove hard to beat off that win. The value could be Regina Margherita who comes off an 8L win at Stony Creek. Prior to that she had abolutely no luck at Werribee, and three starts back she won by 5.5L at Bordertown. This is harder but you can’t deny she’s in terrific form so at $8.00 she’s worth a bet.
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