Just four races remain in the 2023 Formula 1 season, with the teams and drivers heading to the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City, for the 2023 Mexican Grand Prix. Max Verstappen is a 4-time winner at the circuit and will once again come into the weekend as the overwhelming favourite to win his 16th race of the season.
We were close in our fading of Verstappen last weekend, with Leclerc managing to take Pole Position, rather than one of the McLaren boys. Is this the race where the Verstappen momentum is stopped?
2023 Formula One Betting Tips – Mexico Grand Prix
United States Grand Prix Review
Qualifying showed that maybe Verstappen wasn’t going to have things all his own way, as Charles Leclerc took Pole Position, ahead of Lando Norris. Verstappen only managed 6th on the grid, and with Perez down in 9th, the Red Bull appeared to be struggling.
The sprint race showed that Max was still quick, claiming Pole, before winning the race from Hamilton and Leclerc.
In the main race, Norris got away beautifully from 2nd on the grid, taking the lead into turn 1. Things weren’t as good for his Aussie teammate Oscar Piastri, who retired after 10 laps after a collision with Esteban Ocon on lap 1.
Hamilton and Verstappen showed they had the race pace to fight with Norris for the race win, as they quickly made their way past the Ferraris before the first round of pit stops. The three all stopped on different laps, which helped Verstappen the most, who ended up passing Norris for the lead on lap 28, a lead he never gave up.
Verstappen won from Hamilton, Norris, Sainz, Perez, and Leclerc, however Hamilton and Leclerc were disqualified after the race, as their undercar plank didn’t meet regulations after the race.
Mexico Grand Prix Preview
Verstappen and Red Bull have been quick here since the return of this race in 2015, winning 4 times in the 7 races. The other 3 winners at the circuit, Mercedes (Hamilton x 2, Rosberg). With the pace Hamilton showed at the US Grand Prix, I believe Hamilton will be one of, if not the biggest challenger to Verstappen this weekend.
McLaren haven’t traditionally been particularly fast here; however, I believe they will be quicker than the market seems to think, with Lando Norris a solid price for a podium here, based on his prices at the last few races. Whilst I won’t have either McLaren driver as taking Pole Position, if they show pace in the opening practice session, I’ll probably sprinkle a little on both McLaren boys to take Pole. They are so close to taking one, I’m just not so sure it’s here.
Alpine seem to have the 5th fastest car right now, with Aston Martin going backwards, particularly in qualifying. With both Alpine drivers paying around the same for a place, I’ll take Gasly, who has had the better of Ocon of late.
Finally, if Perez is going to show anything for the remainder of the season, surely, it’s here at his home race. Perez has been awful since signing his contract extension, consistently well off the pace of Verstappen. He has shown pace here in the past, and if the Red Bull is as dominant as it has been here in the past, a Perez podium is surely on the cards.
Other Bets
Both Red Bull (Top 3 finish) – $2.20 @ Ladbrokes (1u)
Lando Norris (Top 3 finish) – $2.40 @ NEDS (0.5u)
Lewis Hamilton (Pole Position) – $12 @ Palmerbet (0.5u)
Pierre Gasly (Top 10 finish) - $1.80 @ NEDS (1u)
Lewis Hamilton (Top 3)
$1.75 (2 Units)
