We are not long removed from the sights and sounds of Roland Garros, but believe it or not, Wimbledon is upon us!
It is shaping up to be a massive fortnight, and unlike 2022, we will have the full complement of countries participating this year. Let’s look at the top fancies for the tournament and look at what value presents itself in the futures markets.
2023 Mens Wimbledon Futures Preview & Betting Tips
1st Quarter
The name that commands the most attention in this quarter is world number 1 Carlos Alcaraz, and justifiably so. The world number one will look to overcome the disappointment of his semi final cramping at Roland Garros, and try and get his year back on track here on the grass. There have been some very noticeable improvements in the level of Alcaraz on the grass based on his Queen’s appearances. Alcaraz came into the grass season last year having played a LOT of tennis in the first half of the year, and spent large chunks of Wimbledon playing from positions on the court that a far more suited to the clay. He looked far more comfortable on the surface at Queen’s, his positioning looked more aggressive, he used his backhand slice incredibly well, so it looks like Carlos and his team have done their homework. One player that I was hoping to receive a slightly more favourable draw here is Frances Tiafoe, who may need to go through Grigor Dimitrov, Holger Rune and Carlos Alcaraz just to get out of the first quarter, which is going to be a tougher task than other sections of the draw.
2nd Quarter
This quarter has Daniil Medvedev as the shortest odds to win the quarter, and given what I’ve seen from the Russian on the surface over the course of the last couple of years, there may be some value in playing around him for the fortnight. The next two names that pop up in the quarter winner markets are Sebastian Korda and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Korda has produced some solid lead-up form, but I do have some concerns about his level in best of 5 off a decent injury layoff this year. Tsitsipas’ has had some off-court success of late, becoming the first person to ever fall in love, however his stats on-court leave a little to be desired here. The player that catches my eye in terms of his lead-up form, his level on the grass, and the layout of his draw is Andy Murray. He gets Peniston in round 1, the winner of Thiem and Tsitsipas in round 2, and at worst Shelton in round 3, so there is potential for Murray to make a deep run here.
3rd Quarter
Casper Ruud’s grass court preparation has been on the golf course more than the tennis court, with the world number 4’s game not well suited to the surface. That means there is great opportunity for players in the section, as they can avoid the likes of Alcaraz and Djokovic in the first five matches of the tournament.
Ruud is still the third favourite in the quarter winner market, but it’s hard to make a case for him. Jannik Sinner leads the quarter winner markets, however his inability to play consistently in the first week of grand slams can make it a little difficult to confidently back him in at the short price here. His draw is reasonable for the first three rounds, but the same could be said for the Italian at Roland Garros. My eyes are drawn to Taylor Fritz over the best of 5 set format here. He came within a whisker of the semi-finals last year, and comparative to Sinner, I think his draw is a little better. I also felt Denis Shapovalov showed some signs that he is turning a corner more recently, so given his favourable draw, I could also make a case for the Canadian to notch a couple of wins here.
4th Quarter
It can be a little difficult to find significant value throughout the outright markets when you have arguably the greatest player of all time sitting at $1.75 or shorter at all books. The world number 2 is 52-2 at grand slam level since the start of 2021, with his only losses coming to Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros last year, and Daniil Medvedev in the 2021 US Open final. Although Covid has impacted on Novak’s ability to play a full tennis schedule in recent years, however for all the tournament appearances he lost in that time, it may had aided the longevity of the Serbian’s career as well. The only concern is the lack of lead-up tennis on the grass, however looking at the draw, he should be able to build his form well over the course of the first week of the tournament. I think the current outright odd look correct, and I don’t have any desire to oppose him in any capacity here.
Summary
I think the odds for Djokovic look spot on. I think the odds for Alcaraz look to be ever so slightly long. I was stronger on Alcaraz pre-draw, but some of the names that have fallen in his quarter have reduced the value on the Spaniard a touch. With the odds for all the other players north of $20, and Djokovic’s relatively favourable draw, I am happy to look to some other markets.
The first is Andy Murray to win the 2nd quarter. He has a tough potential second round match with Tsitsipas, however the $8 to win this quarter looks reasonable for a small play.
In the 3rd quarter, I will split my selections across Taylor Fritz and Denis Shapovalov, although I will weight this in favour of the American. For Fritz, I’ll also include a staking on him to reach the 4th round north of $2.
Suggested Bets
0.3 units Andy Murray 2nd Quarter Winner - $8 at Bet365
0.5 units Taylor Fritz 3rd Quarter Winner - $5.50 at Bet365
0.2 units Denis Shapovalov 3rd Quarter Winner - $13 at Bet365
1 unit Taylor Fritz to reach Round 4 – ‘Yes’ - $2.10 at Bet365
