AFL Round 13 concludes on Monday with the annual King’s Birthday clash between Melbourne and Collingwood at the MCG. The Demons are coming off a poor loss against the Saints and will want to respond here, but they won’t find it at all easy against the ladder-leading Magpies.
Below, we bring you our best bet, player prop, and Same Game Multi for the Melbourne vs Collingwood King’s Birthday clash, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Melbourne vs Collingwood Prediction & Tips: 2025 AFL Round 13
Are Melbourne Finals Contenders?
The traditional King's Birthday blockbuster finds Melbourne at a critical juncture. Prior to last week's shock loss, the Demons were arguably the form team of the competition. They had built a powerful head of steam with a string of impressive victories, highlighted by a dominant 53-point thrashing of the Sydney Swans and a tough, character-building win against the Lions in Brisbane the week before. In those games, their midfield was firing and they showed a potent, high-scoring brand of football that looked ready to challenge any contender. However, a jarring 28-point loss to St Kilda in Darwin, marred by horrific inaccuracy (7.21), brought that momentum to a screeching halt and has once again raised questions about their consistency and mental fortitude.
The Magpies are Premiership Favourites
The Demons now face the ultimate test against a Collingwood side that operates like a well-oiled machine. The Magpies enter the clash as deserved premiership favourites, sitting comfortably at the top of the ladder. Their recent 51-point dismantling of Hawthorn was just another example of their ruthless efficiency and depth. Craig McRae's team is playing with an unshakeable confidence, built on a foundation of suffocating pressure, slick ball movement, and a multi-pronged attack that is difficult to contain. Their experienced and cohesive lineup has them perfectly placed to exploit any vulnerabilities in an opponent
Stats & Recent History
Recent history between these two storied clubs heavily favours the Magpies. Collingwood has been victorious in each of their last three encounters and six of their last 7, a streak of dominance that will undoubtedly be playing on the minds of the Melbourne faithful. This includes a commanding 46-point win the last time they met in late 2024. Statistically, the Magpies hold an edge in nearly every key area, ranking among the league's elite for both offensive firepower and defensive stinginess, showcasing a balance that the Demons have struggled to maintain.
King’s Birthday Battle, Here’s Our Melbourne vs Collingwood Tip
While Melbourne's best form in the weeks prior to the St Kilda loss was scintillating, that single performance has cast significant doubt over their ability to match the reigning premiers. The Magpies' class edge, superior depth, and unwavering system give them a significant advantage. The Demons will need to rediscover their peak form instantly and hope the occasion rattles the favourites. However, the more likely scenario is that the polished and relentless Magpies will prove too strong and comfortably cover the -22.5 spread.
Collingwood –22.5
$1.92 (2 Units)
Melbourne vs Collingwood Player Prop Bet: Jamie to Jag
Our Best Player Prop: Jamie Elliott 3+ Goals
Jamie Elliott has been in incredible form in 2025 and is clearly having a career-best season. He’s finally been able to get some continuity at the ripe old age of 32, and has kicked 33 goals from 12 matches. Over the past six weeks alone, Elliott has had 4x bags of 5+ goals for a total of 23 – the most of any player in the competition over this stretch. He’s also known for playing well on the big stage, so there’s no reason why he won’t continuing his blistering form on Monday.
Jamie Elliott 3+ Goals
$2.50 (1 Unit)
Melbourne vs Collingwood Same Game Multi
Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals: Happy to include for the reasons mentioned above in our best prop bet.
Nick Daicos 25+ Disposals: Averaging bang on 30 disposals per game this season and has had 38 and 32 in the past two weeks.
Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals: Will need to up his midfield minutes even more this week with Viney out. Petracca has had 25+ touches in seven of his last eight matches.
Steele Sidebottom 20+ Disposals: 20+ in nine of his past 10 games and the one where he missed he was subbed off. Has been extremely reliable this season.
Melbourne vs Collingwood Betting Odds & Match Info
Weather: 13 degrees, light rain
Odds: Melbourne $3.85 vs Collingwood $1.26
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Where to Watch Melbourne vs Collingwood?
You can watch all the Demons vs Magpies on Channel 7 or live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our Melbourne vs Collingwood Tips at Dabble!
