One of the best matches in AFL Round 18 is undoubtedly on Friday night with Melbourne taking on Brisbane at the MCG. Both currently occupying spot inside the top four, you can expect a high-quality contest between two contenders. We bring you our full preview and betting tips for the match below.
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AFL Round 18 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Brisbane
Friday 7:50pm AEST, July 14th, MCG
There’s plenty of fixtures to look forward to in Round 18 of the AFL season, but perhaps none more so than Friday night’s matchup between Melbourne and Brisbane at the MCG.
Melbourne can consider themselves lucky to come away with the four points against a heavily undermanned St Kilda side last weekend even though the final score indicates it was a comfortable win (79-58). They had a massive advantage for most of the match due to injuries to Saints players but were unable to fully capitalise.
Still, the Demons would’ve been please to get back onto the winners list after losing back-to-back games against the Cats and the Giants, both of which were by narrow margins. The Demons are now 10-6 on the season and sit in fourth spot on the ladder.
Interestingly, the Demons have decided to swing the axe at the selection table and drop star recruit Brodie Grundy for this weekend’s clash. He and captain Max Gawn form a dynamic 1-2 punch in the ruck on paper, but they haven’t quite been able to make it work on the field.
Brisbane went through a little form slump in the middle of the season but have gathered some momentum over the past month to put together a four-game win streak. As expected, they made extremely light work of the Eagles last start to defeat them by 81 points.
The Lions are now 12-4 on the season and that’s currently good enough for third spot on the ladder. The main reason for their fantastic record is because they’re a perfect 8/8 at the Gabba this season. On the flip side, their form away from home isn’t so pretty as they’ve only saluted in 4/8 matches to date.
The Lions interstate struggles have been well documented both this season and in recent campaigns. They’ll head to the MCG in Round 18 knowing they’ve won only once at the venue from their past 14 attempts, which is a staggering statistic considering they’ve enjoyed some thoroughly successful seasons in recent years.
Making matters worse for the Lions, the Demons have been fantastic with the crowd behind them this season. They’re 8-1 in Melbourne which makes them one of the deadliest home teams in the competition.
Ironically, the Lions only win at the MCG in their last 14 visits was against the Demons in the finals last season. And while that will give them at least a tiny bit of confidence ahead of this monster clash, I still don’t think it’s enough to warrant backing them in to win.
With all of that said, I think the current odds offered for the Demons to continue their dominance in Melbourne with a win on Friday night is more than fair and as such, I’ll be backing them to win for two units.
Melbourne -3.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Christian Petracca 2+ Goals – Played a lot of their game against the Saints in the forward line and didn’t disappoint with four goals. He’ll likely be hitting the scoreboard again here.
Jack Viney 25+ Disposals – Continues to play well as the inside bull with Clayton Oliver missing. He’s had four straight matches of 25+ disposals and should get to that mark on Friday night.
Max Gawn 15+ Disposals – Brodie Grundy getting dropped means Big Gawny will be taking the lion’s share of the ruck duties. Being around the ball more often should naturally see him find more of the football.
Conor McKenna 15+ Disposals – The Irishman should flourish on the open spaces of the MCG. He’s had five straight games of 15 disposals or more and will get there again in this one.
