It’s the race that stops the nation, and the 2023 Melbourne Cup should be another cracking instalment. 24 runners with differing form lines will try their luck over 3200m at Flemington in Race 7 on Tuesday. Racing expert, Brendan Bunworth has gone over all the form to bring you his runner-by-runner preview and analysis for this year’s Melbourne Cup.
Find our preview for the Melbourne Cup below, and if you're after tips for the other nine races on the program, we have them covered in our Melbourne Cup Day Preview & Tips article.
Melbourne Cup Runner-by-Runner Preview & Betting Tips
Race 7: 2023 Lexus Melbourne Cup GROUP 1 - 3pm (AEDT)
(1) Gold Trip (C.Maher&D.Eustace)/(James McDonald)is going great guns but I think the track may be too hard for him this year. Last year's winner who is probably going better this year. As of 9pm on Monday, Gold Trip had claimed 10 percent of the TAB’s total win bets but top weights have a poor rating in the big race. The trainers would have loved rain in the lead up to soften the track. Not sure he runs top 3. 6-1
(2) Alenquer (M.Moroney)/(D.Oliver) ran on fairly in the Moonee Valley Cup last start but I can't see him finishing in the top. He faces a vets examination on Tuesday morning and is 50/50 to run. 50-1
(3) Without a Fight (A&S Freedman)/(M.Zahra) won the Caulfield Cup and loves Dry tracks. Unplaced in his only run at Flemington. The gelding will become the 12th horse in history to win the Caulfield/Melbourne Cup double. The trainers believe he is better on top of the ground and he was the 3rd best backed horse on Monday. Racing in his second Melbourne Cup, some are tipping he will receive a lot of late money as well. 6-1
(4) Breakup (T.Yoshioka)/(K.Matsuyama) is second up from a spell and does his best work when raced that way. Yoshioka has been forthright in his comment stating “It was his first race for a while and I don't think the race panned out for him well” (Caulfield Cup run)
(5) Vauban (W.Mullins)/(R.Moore) is the $3.20 favourite and comes over from Europe with high hopes after his Ascot win on June 20. Ryan Moore, England’s and Ireland’s premier jockey stays with him. The lightly raced six-year-old has won most of his races on Soft tracks and Flemington is going to be Dry as a bone as there hasn't been much rain around of late. 3.20-1
(6) Soulcombe (C.Waller)/ (J.Moreira) has been missing the start but the blinkers come off which may help him. Remains with 53.5kg after running unplaced in the Caulfield Cup when 2nd favourite. Part-owned by Richmond’s Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt. Waller has told Moreira to keep moving behind the barriers in a hope that he jumps better in the big race. 10-1
(7) Absurde (W.Mullins)/(Z.Purton) drops 7.5kg from his latest run at York (1st) and Willie Mullins knows how to prepare them for the Cup. Has been one of the best backed on Monday. 12-1
(8) Right You Are (C.Maher&D.Eustace)/(J.Allen) has never raced past 3000m before but does love Dry tracks. Bottom 10 though I think. 150-1
(9) Vow and Declare (D.O’Brien)/(W. Egan) returns after winning this race 4 years ago and is arguably going just as good. Was 2nd in the Moonee Valley Cup but not sure he can win from barrier 19. 26-1
*SCRATCHED* (10) Cleveland (K.Lees)/(M.Dee) won the Moonee Valley Cup a week and a half ago but has a bad barrier in 23. Drops 3.5kg for Michael Dee. 40-1 *scratched after vets found an elevated temperature on Monday*
(11) Ashrun (C.Maher&D.Eustace)/ (K.Mcevoy) gets a chance in the race after a 2nd in the Geelong Cup last start. Drops 5kg for Kerrin McEvoy who has won on him before. 35-1
(12) Daqiansweet Junior (P.Stokes)/(D.Stackhouse) hasn’t won in 601 days and is at 100-1 but I tipped him 3, 6, 9 and 12 months ago and I can’t get off him now. Trained by Philip Stokes, Dan Stackhouse will exit from barrier 12 and despite his form looking poor, the stable are delighted the way he is running. He has a suitable Good track too (7 wins) and he only has to carry 51.5kg after carrying 58kg for Blake Shinn when a good 4th in the Herbert Power on October 14. 100-1
(13) Okita Soushi (J.O’Brien)/(D.Gibbons) has drawn wide in 20 and I don’t think it will be another fairytale for the Joseph O’Brien team this year. McEvoy has jumped off him and Dylan Gibbons is on. 90-1
(14) Sheraz (C.Waller)/(B.Mertens) can run the distance and is capable but needs a wet track. 126-1
(15) Lastotchka (M.Price&M.KentJnr)/(C.Williams) has drawn wide in 21 but has the in-form Craig Williams on and the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr stable are quietly confident that the French horse can run a race. Goes better on Dry ground. 20-1
(16) Magical Lagoon (C.Waller)/( M. R. du Plessis) may lead the field but it would be a Waller miracle if she won. Likes Good tracks though. 151-1
(17) Military Mission (G.Waterhouse&A.Bott)/(R.King) had a sneaky Sale trial last week in which he won. Before that he won the Herbert Power. Definitely a chance. 30-1
(18) Serpentine (G.Waterhouse&A.Bott)/(J.McNeil) hasn’t been beaten too far when running a 2nd, 3rd and 4th so far this campaign. Likes the Dry and Melbourne Cup winning jockey Jye McNeil is on. 46-1
(19) Virtuous Circle (L. Howley)/(C.Newitt) was tipped by us in the Geelong Cup but looked one of the first beaten. 151-1
(20) More Felons (C.Waller)/(J.Kah) has Jamie Kah on who did win 2 on Derby Day. Barrier 24 makes it tough though. 33-1
(21) Future History (C.Maher&D.Eustace)/(H.Doyle) will settle about 4th in the run and if the race is run slowly he can be thereabouts in the final 300m. Doyle has flown to Australia especially for this race and is Britain's premier female jockey. 20-1
(22) Interpretation (C.Maher&D.Eustace)/(T.Nugent) won the Bendigo Cup just 6 days ago and looked good doing so but this looks out of reach even for the Maher & Eustace stable. 80-1
(23) Kalapour (K. Lees)/(Z.Lloyd) won the Group 3 Archer Stakes on Derby Day to get into the race. Has the miles in the legs and isn’t without a chance. 46-1
(24) True Marvel (M.Smith)/(B.Thompson) has poor Flemington form and was 10th in the Moonee Valley Cup. Going to say No. 126-1.
First Four Prediction: 12-6-3-9
(12) Daqiansweet Junior E/W
$100/$20 (0.5 units)
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