Round 3 of the NRL concludes with a pivotal clash in Newcastle, as the table topping Melbourne Storm head to the Hunter to take on the 0-2 Knights. The Storm have been dogged to start the season, missing their star five-eighth Cam Munster for both their games, and will look to go three from three to kick off their 2024 campaign.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our NRL Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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- Guide to Betting on the NRL
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm
McDonald Jones Stadium, Sunday 24th March, 6:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Storm came back from being down 26-18 with three minutes remaining, to sneak past the Warriors at home in round 2. The Storm dominated the first half, leading 18-6 after 21 minutes, before the Warriors put on 20-straight second half points to take the lead. An amazing try by Xavier Coates in the dying stages got the Storm home in the end, and they should be extremely happy with the start to their season, winning two games without Cam Munster. Ryan Papenhuyzen was immense, running for 162 metres, scoring two tries, as well as coming up with two line-breaks, two line-break assists, and seven tackle breaks. A huge effort.
The Knights fell agonizingly close to getting their first win of the season last week, as they went down 21-20 to the Cowboys in Golden Point on the road. They needed an improvement over their first-round loss at home to the Raiders, and Head Coach Adam O’Brien got that, as the Knights shot out of the gate to take an early 12-0 lead, maintaining the lead until half time. Two early second half tries had the Cowboys right back in it, before the Knights put on 8 points in a five-minute period to lead 20-10. The Cowboys stormed home though, forcing extra time, before a Chad Townsend field goal sealed the win for the Cowboys.
Match Preview
The Knights managed their first win over the Storm since 2015 last season, as they managed a 26-18 win over them in round 21 at home in the only clash between these sides last season. The Storm came into the matchup as 8.5-point favourites, but it was the Knights who dominated, making 8 line-breaks to the Storm’s four, as they continued on their way to a cracking finish to the season.
The Storm opened 3.5-point favourites for this matchup, but with Cam Munster ruled out again, and Jahrome Hughes suspended, the Knights have come into favouritism with the bookies, currently sitting as small 1.5-point favourites. It’s hard to rate the Storm this week, with both halves out, as this doesn’t happen all too often. I do believe the market has it right, and the Knights should be favourites, the question is by how much.
As for the total, it opened 40.5, where it remains at the time of writing. My fair line would be 44, if both Storm halves were playing, so I understand the drop, especially considering the amount of unders we have seen to start the year. However, I am interested in the over in the Knights team total which sits around 20.5, with the Storm’s defence not looking particularly good last week against the Warriors. I’ll steer clear though, as Bellamy would have put a rocket through the squad for that defence last week.
I believe the Knights should win this game, and realistically, they need to win. They can’t afford to go to 0-3 (0-2 at home) and lose to a Storm outfit minus both starting halves, if they’re to have any belief they can make a run this season. Expect Ponga to step up at home on Sunday afternoon, and the Knights to get their first win of the season.
Knights -1.5
$1.83 (1.5 units)
Same Game Multi
R Papenhuyzen (1+ try) – Paps has looked like the Papenhuyzen of old to start the season, and if anyone is going to score for this Storm outfit, it’s their enigmatic fullback. There will be added pressure on him this week, look for him to step up in a big way.
B Best (1+ try) – Yet to get off the mark this season, expect the Knights to target the right edge of the Storm’s defence all game, with the big fella powering over for his first try of the season.
Either team by 1-12 (margin) – I like the Knights but can’t see them blowing the Storm off the park. This also gives us the added insurance; in case the Storm can sneak by in the game.
SGM Odds: $10.37 at Neds
