Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Wednesday, November 27th.
Midweek racing takes place at Sandown Hillside, Warwick Farm and Northam this Wednesday, and we've picked out our best bets from each meeting below!
(7) Lianne is knocking on the door after two good runs back from a spell this campaign. First up she won over 1100m at Benalla, and she followed that with a 4th placing at Bendigo last time out, whre she ran home strongly from the back of the field. She wasn't beaten far in a similar race to this at this track last preparation, when beaten by the likes of Fidelia and Fabric. The query is barrier 1 as she tends to get back in her races, so will need luck, but she should be hitting the line strongly. The value bet in the race looks to be (9) Indiana Lily, who comes into this second up after running 5th at The Valley first up. She's never finished out of the top two from three starts when second up, including a win at Pakenham last prep in a very similar race to this. At $10, she's a good price. Finally, I'm expecting a turnaround in form from (3) In Heart's Wake with the blinkers coming off and a drop back in grade. The stable have a very good record at this track. I'll be saving on her and backing the other two.
This looks a great race for (4) Irish Butterfly. He returned in good style with a 4th placing first up at Bendigo, beaten less than a length after 36 weeks off the track. That run should bring him on plenty and the rise to 1500m should suit him. He drops slightly in class and therefore carries a bit of weight, but Ben Melham takes over today and they elect not to claim off him. He's lightly raced with plenty of improvement left and he's already shown he's got the talent, so I'd expect him to return to the winner's stall today. (5) Kamien looks the logical danger having run 3rd in that same race at Bendigo. He gets a 2kg weight swing on Irish Butterfly to help his chances.
Two standouts to close out the card at Warwick Farm. (2) Embracer returns from a spell and should be very hard to beat. He had six runs in his first campaign, resulting in two wins and three placings. Last time we saw him he tailed out to finish last on a heavy track, but he returns here having won to trials in the lead up to today. The blinkers come off for the first time, Tim Clark is booked to ride and this looks a suitable kick off point to his campaign. I think the real value in the race is (1) Inanup at $12. He's won three of his four first up runs in the past and won a very similar race to this over this track and distance last prep. Chris Williams piloted him to both of his victories last prep so they're not just booking him to take some weight off. He's over the odds. Backing both.
I reckon the market has (10) Amelia Bedelia a bit short here at $2.30. She's had one race start which was at Belmont back in May, where she ran 3rd beaten 3.5L. Not a single horse has come out of that race and won so the form is very sketchy and although she's won a trial leading into this, she'd also won three trials leading into her debut so don't be sucked in. I wouldn't be taking that price in a race that looks to have a few chances. (5) Protected Action looks a great bet at double figure odds. He was a big drifter in betting first up after opening favourite and ran accordingly, then pulled up with a slow recovery post race. I'd forgive him for that because it was an exceptionally strong maiden. The first three horses out of that race have all come out and won again, including the winner which won in town last week (Cuballing). At $11 he's definitely worth a bet. (9) Wicklow Princess ran 2nd first up and wasn't beaten far at all. She draws well and has every right to be in the finish once again, while (3) The Full Quid comes out of some strong form races and should go well back in maiden grade. Even (7) Rock The Planet is a blowout chance at huge odds. Very happy to take on Amelia Bedelia and back a few others.
Basically two chances in this race, in my opinion. The Gangemi stable bring one runner to Northam today and that's (4) Notorious One. He's on debut and has had two trials leading into today, winning the latest of those comfortably. Generally this stable have them ready to go and when they trial well they normally take that to race day. I'd be very surprised if he wasn't in the finish. (6) Sun Power justified good market support at longer odds last start when he improved significantly on his debut performance to run 2nd. If he takes that sort of improvement from last start to today, he's going to be very hard to run down from the front. I'll be backing Notorious One and saving on Sun Power.
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