Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Wednesday, March 11th.
Midweek metropolitan racing takes place at Sandown Hillside and Warwick Farm this afternoon, and racing expert Tim Geers has highlighted the horses he's keen on throughout the day at each track below!
Horse Racing Tips: Wednesday, March 11th
Best Bet: Sandown Race 3 - (7) Shilo Lass
Next Best Bet: Warwick Farm Race 3 - (7) Haven
Best Value Bet: Warwick Farm Race 5 - (8) She's Fearless
Warwick Farm Race 2 (Market)
(2) Good Stock was brave in defeat first up, beaten just 0.4L after having to work hard to find the lead. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have a 27% strike rate at Warwick Farm this season and there looks no speed in this race, so Tim Clark should be able to find the front with this horse from barrier 9. If he gets a few cheap sectionals, he will take plenty of beating from the front. (8) Obscene is a bit of value at $9.50. She's had two runs back on the provincials this time in and comes to town third up. James McDonald is booked to ride, which catches the eye because he rode (3) Kinane in a trial for Chris Waller recently yet doesn't ride it here on race day.
Warwick Farm Race 3 (Market)
John Thompson has a strike rate of 31% here at Warwick Farm this season from a total of 29 runners, and he enters two horses for this race. I've gone with (7) Haven on top, who comes here on debut after two good recent trials. She's had four trials in total but her first two were back in June last year, so the two most recent ones are from a fresh preparation and she looks to have returned in good order. Rachel King has a 22% strike rate and 57% ROI for Thompson this season and she'd be the first pick of the jockeys for him - notably she rode the stablemate (6) Eye See Things in both of her first two starts but she jumps off today to ride the debutant. Brenton Avdulla picks up the ride on Eye See Things, who also gets blinkers on for the first time after running 2nd in both starts to date. Haven on top but both rate highly.
Warwick Farm Race 5 (Market)
Bjorn Baker is probably the trainer to look out for the most at Warwick Farm, with a strike rate of 39% and a ROI of 153% here this season. It's also worth noting James McDonald has a strike rate of 40% and a ROI of 86% when riding for Baker this season. They combine with (8) She's Fearless here, who is one of only two runners on the day for Baker. The four-year-old mare makes her Australian debut having formerly raced in New Zealand. She's placed in seven of her nine career starts, including an all-the-way win on debut as a two-year-old. I expect a really bold run from her here at $11.
Warwick Farm Race 7 (Market)
The other runner for Bjorn Baker on the day is (10) Missybeel, who comes up as a $12 chance. Forget her run last start when not suited on the heavy track and instead look back to her form prior to that, which included a 4L win over this track and distance in similar conditions to what she will get today. She should go forward from barrier 9 and if she gets a comfortable run up on speed, I suspect she can bounce back to form today.
Sandown Hillside Race 3 (Market)
I really like the chances of (7) Shilo Lass here. She resumes from a spell having had just one career start, which was a dominant win at Ballarat back in October, where she came from midfield to hit the front at the 200m and pull away under soft riding. It was an impressive display and one which suggested she would go on to better races. The query here is her jumpout was ordinary, she ended up tailed off last, but that was her first and only jumpout since returning so it was one to blow out the cobwebs. On form she's the one to beat.
Sandown Hillside Race 4 (Market)
Sticking with (8) Hidden Legend, who returned from a spell with an eye-catching run at Moonee Valley. He jumped awkwardly, settled well back in the run, was held up at a crucial stage coming to the turn and then finished hard when he got clear running. He was beaten just 1.2L on the line, running home in the fastest final 400m and 600m of the race, and a final 200m just 0.01L slower than the winner, who recorded the fastest final 200m of the race. It was a good return and if he can possibly settle a touch closer from barrier 1 today, he should be right in the finish. (2) Mrs Bignell, (7) Zupasize and (13) Miss Ladybird are all long shot chances.
