Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Wednesday, February 12th.
Metropolitan racing gets a boost with the Inglis Millenium meeting from Saturday giving a boost to today's meeting at Warwick Farm, along with some solid cards at Sandown Lakeside and Ascot.
Check out our best bets of the day below!
We see the return of the highly promising (5) Shared Ambition here, who is undefeated in Australia since arriving back in September. He's been dominant in those three wins and I'm a touch surprised by the $2.50 on offer here (he did open $2.85), but at the same time, there are some queries today which is why we're getting that price. He's first up over the mile for starters; he's never won below 1800m so the distance will be short of his best. He's also first up on a Heavy 9 track. We've never seen him race on heavy ground previously, though he has won on soft ground and is bred to handle the wet. The improvement we saw from his first trial to his second trial was significant, his most recent trial being particularly impressive. If he isn't quite ready first up, then (3) Gaulois looks the next likeliest winner. He loves the heavy ground, having never finished out of the top two from five attempts. He's won three of his five starts when third up from a spell and he's won three races at the distance, so he ticks plenty of boxes. If you're unsure about the fav, a decent 1x4 each way bet at $4.80/$1.80 is a good way to go. I'll be saving on Gaulois and having a good bet at the $2.50 on Shared Ambition though.
There's a couple of smart types resuming from a spell here, in the form of (6) Knickpoint and (12) Mirra Vision, but I'm going to have a little throw at the stumps with (4) Jack's Bar at $20. He's been average in his first two runs back this prep which is why we're getting the big odds, but he's won two of his three starts when third up from a spell, he comes off a run where he potentially had an excuse (respiratory noise) and he gets the tongue tie on today for the first time to try and rectify the issue. Kerrin McEvoy sticks with him despite the poor last-start showing, he won over this track and distance third up last prep and he's won on soft ground previously. Small each way.
My one bet for the day at Sandown comes up in Race 6, where I'll be sticking with impressive debut winner (2) Ellis Park. We backed this horse when it won over 1300m here at Sandown Lakeside on the back of two impressive jumpouts at Flemington, and I think he's only going to get better the further he goes. He rises slightly in trip to 1400m today, which is a positive, Williams sticks with him and despite the rise in weight, I think he'll win again. Don't be surprised to see him lead from barrier 2 and I'd be happy having a very good each way bet at $4.40/$1.80.
I think there's a sneaky chance here at good each way odds, but we're going to need some luck. (4) Street Fair was a horse I backed last start here at Ascot at each way odds and while the form guide says he ran 7th of 10, he was beaten just 1.6L and more importantly, recorded the fastest final 200m, 400m and 600m of the race. In fact, he was the only horse in the race to break 35 seconds for the final 600m. He drew wide, went back and the race was run at a crawl so he was no hope from where he was. He draws wide again today but hopefully with the rail out 14m, swoopers are brought into the race. He's each way odds again at $9.50/$3.10.
It's not often we get a Pike horse at $6.50 but I think that's a terrific price for (9) Caerhelan, and the way the market is trending, we might get even better near the jump. This horse has returned in serious order. She didn't come up last prep but I think she's back. She's never run a place first up from a spell, but her first up run at Bunbury this time in was enormous. Pike rode her that day and they ended up well back in the field from the wide gate, but she then reeled off the fastest final 200m and 400m of the entire meeting to be beaten 2L on the line. She's won second up before, she's placed in five of her six starts at Ascot, both career wins have been at this distance, and Pike retains the ride. Hopefully from the slightly better barrier she can be a touch closer round the turn, because if she is I think she'll round them up in the straight. I think (4) Soy Tan Rapido is the big improver and the likely danger. She's another that tends to improve with a run under her belt. She's got a good second up record and has never finished out of the top two from four starts over the track and distance. She'll go to the front and take some catching so we can save on her at $4.60.
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