AFL Round 20 kicks off with a matchup between the Hawks and the Blues at the MCG. The clash has the added element of this being Sam Docherty’s final game, so there’s some added incentive for the Blues to try and bring their best to send off a club champion the right way.
Below, we bring you our best bet, player prop, and Same Game Multi for the Hawks vs Blues, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Hawthorn vs Carlton Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 20
Hawks Simply Must Win
Round 20 kicks off with a crucial Thursday night encounter at the MCG as Hawthorn takes on a Carlton side playing for pride. The Hawks enter the round sitting fifth on the ladder with just five games remaining in the home-and-away season. With a difficult run home, this clash against a lower-ranked opponent is a non-negotiable win to keep their top-four hopes alive and solidify their finals position. Hawthorn is in strong form, having won five of their last six games, including a professional 38-point victory over Port Adelaide in Tasmania last week. In that match, key forward Mitch Lewis made a successful, albeit quiet, return from a long-term knee injury, finishing with just one behind before being managed as the substitute in the second half.
Blues Finally Back on the Winners List
For Carlton, last week brought a welcome reprieve from what has been a trying season. Their hard-fought eight-point victory over Melbourne snapped a frustrating four-game losing streak and provided a much-needed morale boost for the playing group. It’s been a year of disappointment for the Blues, whose finals aspirations were extinguished some time ago as they struggled for consistency. They currently sit 12th on the ladder and are looking to build some positive momentum to carry into the pre-season. While they have little to play for in terms of ladder position, they have a powerful motivator for this Thursday night blockbuster.
Docherty Calls it a Day
This match will be defined by emotion and significant personnel changes for both clubs. The Carlton Football Club and the wider AFL community will farewell one of the game’s most inspirational figures, Sam Docherty, who announced his retirement on Tuesday. After overcoming incredible adversity throughout his career, his teammates will be desperate to send him off with a victory in his final game. The Hawks, however, receive a monumental boost of their own. Superstar midfielder Will Day is set to make his long-awaited return from a foot injury that has kept him sidelined for several months. Day is arguably Hawthorn’s most important player, and his inclusion adds a significant layer of class and polish to their engine room.
Hawks too Classy? Here's our Hawthorn vs Carlton Tip
While the Blues will undoubtedly play with immense passion for Docherty, the stakes are simply too high for Hawthorn to let this one slip. This is a critical game for their finals campaign, and they possess a clear advantage in class and system. The return of Will Day only widens that gap. The Hawks have also had the wood over the Blues in recent times, winning their last two encounters. Expect Hawthorn to weather Carlton’s emotional early storm and methodically pull away to secure a comfortable victory, covering the -25.5 point spread in the process.
Hawthorn –25.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Hawthorn vs Carlton Prop Bet
Our Best Player Prop Bet: Dear 2+ Goals
Calsher Dear has kicked three goals and two goals in his last two matches and remains strong value on Thursday night. With Jack Gunston on fire and Mitch Lewis back in the lineup, Dear should get the third best key defender which certainly helps our chances. If the Hawks do sub one of their talls out, I think it’s more likely to be Lewis who’s only in his second game back from a serious knee injury, and he was also subbed last weekend.
Calsher Dear 2+ Goals
$2.10
Hawthorn vs Carlton Same Game Multi
Calsher Dear 2+ Goals: For the reasons mentioned in our prop bet.
Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals: I’m expecting a huge effort from Cripps in his best mates’ final game. He’s also coming off three straight games of 25+ disposals.
Sam Docherty 20+ Disposals: He’ll leave it all out there in his last game, and I expect Voss to put him around the footy as much as possible.
Hawthorn vs Carlton Betting Odds & Match Info
Weather: 15 degrees, partly cloudy
Odds: Hawthorn $1.20 vs Carlton $4.50
Where to Watch Hawthorn vs Carlton
You can watch the Hawks vs Blues on Channel 7 or live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Follow our Hawthorn vs Carlton Tips at Dabble!
