Saturday twilight footy sees a top four blockbuster at the MCG as Hawthorn face off against Brisbane. With both teams coming off a rare loss, there will be plenty of desperation from both teams to consolidate their spot in the top four!
Check out our full preview and betting tips for Hawks vs Lions below and if you want to tail our tips, do so with BoomBet - One of the biggest and best sportsbooks in the country!
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 11
Hawthorn’s Litmus Test
The Hawks three game winning streak was brought to an end in an eight point loss against the Suns in Darwin. Hawthorn are now 1-2 in games against the current top eight sides and face a huge month with games against the remaining top eight sides in Brisbane, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and Adelaide. The next month of football will define whether Hawthorn are a genuine premiership contender, or just a top eight side.
Can the Lions Bounce Back?
After being on top of the ladder, the reigning premiers have had an uncharacteristically poor fortnight. The Lions led by 9 points at three quarter time against North Melbourne in Round 9 but only managed a draw, while last week they led Melbourne by 14 points, but conceded 4 goals to 1 in the final quarter to lose by 11 points. Brisbane face a much tougher challenge against the Hawks, can they stand up in the fourth quarter against a quality outfit?
The Stats That Matter
Control versus chaos, which reigns supreme? Brisbane are the number one kicking team in the AFL and also rank first for marks, if they can get their uncontested marking game going they will make Hawthorn’s pressure game null and void. On the other hand Hawthorn ranks 2nd for pressure acts, 3rd for tackles which has led to them ranking 5th in the competition for scores from turnover. If the Hawks can deny Brisbane easy kick-mark and keep the ball on the ground, they will be able to generate scoring opportunities.
Hawks or Lions? Here’s our Hawthorn vs Brisbane Tip
With rain and wind around Melbourne on Saturday, it points towards this game being played at ground level, which favours the Hawks. Hawthorn are the best team in the AFL at limiting opposition kicks, which is crucial to beating Brisbane. The Hawks have a brilliant record against the Lions, having won five straight games against Brisbane. Hawthorn have won the last five meetings between the two teams at the MCG, with Brisbane’s last win against the Hawks at the G coming back in 2004. With the Lions not producing their best footy over the last month, all signs point towards a Hawthorn win.
Hawthorn 1-39
$2.15 (1 Unit)
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Player Prop Bet: Moore Back to Regular Programing
Our Best Player Prop: Dylan Moore 2+ Goals
After an All-Australian season playing at half forward in 2024, Dylan Moore has had a quiet 2025, as a result of spending more time up the ground. However, Moore has started spending more time forward which has seen has goal kicking output increase. Moore has hit the scoreboard in three of his last four games, and comes up against a side he has an excellent record against. Moore has kicked seven goals in his last four games against Brisbane, kicking 2+ goals in three of those four games.
Dylan Moore 2+ Goals
$2.20 (1 Unit)
Hawthorn vs Brisbane: Same Game Multi
Dylan Moore 2+ Goals: As highlighted before, Moore has an excellent record against Brisbane, and the conditions on Saturday afternoon will suit small forwards. Moore will get plenty of looks at goal.
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals: With wet conditions set for this game, it will be all about the contested beasts, which Jai Newcombe certainly is. Newcombe is the hawks leading ball winner in 2025 and is coming off a 29 disposal performance last week. Newcombe has a good record against the Lions, producing returns of 23, 28 and 27 disposals in his three games against Brisbane.
Josh Dunkley 25+ Disposals: While Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft get the plaudits, Josh Dunkley does the dirty work week in, week out and is putting together a seriously impressive season. Dunkley is averaging 25 disposals per game in 2025 and has produced performances of 28, 27 and 26 disposals in his last three games. Dunkley has reached the 25+ disposal mark in his last four games against Hawthorn.
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Hawthorn vs Brisbane Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday 24th May
Time: 4:15pm AEST
Location: MCG
Weather: Partly cloudy, high chance of showers, 19 degrees
Odds: Hawthorn ($1.52) vs Brisbane ($2.55)
Line: Hawthorn -13.5
Points: 170.5
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