The Saturday twilight fixture in Round 23 of the AFL season will see GWS host Essendon in a pivotal matchup at GIANTS Stadium. As always, we preview the match and provide our expert analysis and betting strategy below, as well as a Same Game Multi that offers some nice value.
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AFL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
GWS vs Essendon
Saturday 4:35pm AEST, August 19th, GIANTS Stadium
There are a number of important matches with massive finals ramifications this weekend, but perhaps none more so than the Saturday twilight fixture that sees GWS take on Essendon at GIANTS Stadium. It’s 9th vs 10th and it’s almost guaranteed to be season over for the loser.
GWS looked as though they were well on their way to securing a finals berth a couple of weeks ago when they were on a seven-match win streak, but two losses in as many weeks has seen them get shuffled back in the deck. Still, they can make amends with a win on Saturday which would put themselves back in the box seat.
Regardless of whether or not the Giants managed to make finals, it’s been a successful first season at the helm for coach Adam Kingsley. He took over a club that finished in 16th spot with a 6-16 record to now fighting for a spot in the top eight with 11 wins already to their name.
Likewise, Essendon have shown great improvement this season compared to what they dished up in 2022. Also in his first season in charge of the red-and-black, Brad Scott has improved the Bombers win tally from seven last season to 11 this year with two matches remaining.
However, long-suffering fans of this famous club would be concerned with the performance of their team in recent weeks. They’ve taken on the two bottom sides in back-to-back weeks and have come away with only a +10 points differential, albeit in two important wins.
These teams met each other back in April of this season and it was the Bombers who came away with a 13-point win at Marvel Stadium. It must be said the Bombers were in far better form at that stage of the season, and the Giants were struggling to find their feet with Kingsley in charge early doors.
Fast forward to now however, and it’s the Giants who are the three-goal favourites to secure the all-important four points. They’ve been in much stronger form in the second half of the season and with home ground advantage also a factor, it’s hard to see how the Bombers can overcome the odds here.
Simply put, the Giants should be winning this match comfortably and anything less would be a surprise.
GWS -17.5
$1.88 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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GWS to Win – It’s just impossible to make a case for the Bombers in this matchup on recent form. The Giants should have a clear advantage, particularly on their home deck.
Josh Kelly 25+ Disposals – Has battled a bit in recent weeks but gets a nice matchup here against the Essendon midfield. Jelly should be cashing in here.
Jesse Hogan 3+ Goals – The Giants tall forwards will have the edge in the air against the Bombers key backs. Hogan is quietly putting together a fine season and could find himself on the end of a few if this blows out.
SGM Odds: $4.60 at BoomBet
