It is footy Saturday on the Gold Coast with the Suns vs Carlton kicking things off at Heritage Bank Stadium in Carrara before the Coast’s NRL team the Titans play down the road in the early evening. Both Gold Coast teams have already been planning their Mad Mondays for the end of August, which is becoming a sad ritual on Australia’s glitter strip. Carlton however, are powering on an eight-game win streak and will be looking to fly out of sunny Queensland on cloud 9, having booked their spot to play in September for the first time since 2013.
We bring you our preview, best bet and value Same Game Multi for the Suns vs Blues below! Also, we're providing previews and best bets for every game of the 2023 season, so make sure to check out our AFL Tips page regularly to stay up to date.
AFL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton Blues
Saturday 2:10pm AEST, August 19th, Heritage Bank Stadium, Gold Coast
The Gold Coast Suns put up an almighty fight against the Sydney Swans last week at the SCG trying to keep their season alight, but a poor third term from the Suns or better said a superb premiership quarter from the Swans extinguished their hopes. Sydney kicked six goals to the Gold Coast’s two in the third term after there were 8 lead changes prior to that. The Swannies put the wind under their wings from there on out winning by a comfortable margin of 24. The loss all but ended the Suns’ slim hopes of playing in September with a finals berth still eluding the franchise in their 14-year history.
Carlton on the other hand appears to be unstoppable at the moment. Coincidently it was the Suns that sparked the magic for the Blues with the Gold Coast being the first scalp on their eight-game winning streak. Carlton had lost 6 straight before meeting the Gold Coast in round 14, but a 59-point victory, led by a 3 goal, 27 disposal game from Patrick Cripps, put a fire under the Blues that put their season back on track and now has them 5th on the AFL ladder. Carlton’s numbers are impeccable on their 8-game run, averaging 102 points in attack and just 64 points against, winning by an average margin of 42 points. If they can keep this momentum going into September they might just be a smoky for the premiership, especially when you take into account that they have beaten three of the top four sides in the competition in the last 2 months.
Punching the numbers into the models I see why there is just a 57% expectancy for a Carlton victory. There is plenty of weight on the home form of the Suns, who have won 3 of their last 4 at Heritage, including a 41-point victory against big brothers Brisbane last time out. However, I can’t go past the current form of the Blues who have had no trouble on the road with 4 away wins during their fine run and an average margin of victory of 37 points away from home. Motivation also plays its role here with the Suns season already over for 2023 and Carlton needing another victory to ensure that they play finals footy for the first time in 10 years. I think starting just 7.5 points down as favourites is very generous for Carlton and I will be snapping that line up before it pushes out further closer to game time.
Carlton -7.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
Same Game Multi
Carlton Blues -7.5 - This line will be easy pickings for the Blues and the 1.90 pushes up the value in the multi.
Patrick Cripps 90+ Fantasy Points - The Blues midfielder has had ten 90+ Fantasy Points games in 2023, including 5 in his last 7 matches. He also produced 110 fantasy points in Carlton's last outing against the Gold Coast, at the MCG in round 14.
Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals- It is win or die by the sword backing Cripps for 25+ disposals in the same multi, but if the narrative is correct in this game, then it is money in the bank. Cripps has recorded 25+ disposals in 57% of his games in 2023, reaching the 25-disposal mark in 4 of his last 7 games.
SGM Odds: $3.37 at Ladbrokes
