Saturday twilight football sees a crucial battle in the makeup of the top eight with fifth placed Geelong travelling out west to face sixth placed Fremantle. A win could put either side in the top four, while a defeat will have them hanging on for a place in the top eight!
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2024 AFL Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips
Fremantle vs Geelong
Saturday 4:35pm AEST, 10th August, Optus Stadium
Optus Stadium plays host to one of the most consequential games of the season as Geelong sit fifth, equal on points with third placed Port Adelaide. Fremantle are two points behind the Cats, and given Brisbane and GWS play each other this weekend, a win could see them jump into the top four.
Both sides are less than a game ahead of eighth placed Carlton, meaning if results don’t go their way, they’ll be at huge risk of falling out of the eight in the final fortnight of the season.
Fremantle looked to be set in third when they led by 25 points early in the last quarter, before conceding five straight goals to let Essendon keep their season alive. The Dockers tied the game with 36 seconds remaining, but conceded a crucial centre clearance that allowed the Bombers to score a match winning point that kicked Fremantle out of top four.
The Dockers lost the inside 50 count -15, however their efficiency inside 50 put them in the box seat to win the game. Fremantle kicked 14.5, scoring from 43.2% off their inside 50’s and remarkably did not miss a set shot for the entire game. Andrew Brayshaw (33 disposals), Caleb Serong (32) and Hayden Young (27, 2 goals) were outstanding through the middle, while Jye Amiss (4 goals) and Josh Treacy (3 goals) led the way up forward.
Geelong dug deep to overcome a gallant Adelaide outfit, thanks to 6 goals from Jeremy Cameron to secure a top four position. The Cats trailed by 10 points in the final term, before kicking three of the final four goals of the game to secure a crucial victory.
These sides are ranked fifth and sixth in the competition for scores from turnovers, so whoever scores more from that source will go a long way towards winning the game. Fremantle are 5-2 over their last seven games, in the two losses to Essendon and Hawthorn they scored under 33 points from turnover. In the five wins they scored 56, 85, 66, 71 and 42 points.
Match Prediction: Fremantle are one of the very few clubs that have a strong record against Geelong, winning three of their last four games. The Dockers and Cats both rank in the top five in the competition for clearances, so the midfield battle looms as a crucial factor in this clash.
These sides match up so evenly, the Cats having a buffer in this game makes them appealing to go with. Two of the last three games between Fremantle and Geelong have been decided by single digits and given the form of both sides and what is at stake, this should be another close matchup.
Geelong +13.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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Caleb Serong 30+ Disposals: Serong comes into Round 22 on the back of three straight 30+ disposal games, in what has been an outstanding season where he’s averaged 30.6 disposals per game. In his ten games at Optus Stadium in 2024, Sarong averages 32.1 disposals per game.
Andrew Brayshaw 25+ Disposals: While Serong gets the majority of the plaudits, Andy Brayshaw is putting together one of the most underrated season’s in the competition. Brayshaw has had five straight games as Freo’s leading ball winner, with four of his last five games producing over 30 disposals. Brayshaw’s last seven games have produced returns of 33, 36, 41, 23, 35, 24 and 32 disposals.
Tom Stewart 25+ Disposals: Another week in the midfield and another strong performance from Tom Stewart, who has completely turned his season around. In three consecutive games Stewart has been Geelong’s highest disposal getter, and has had 25 or more disposals in each of his last five games.
SGM Odds: $3.40 at BoomBet
