Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, October 6th!
We have nine races on a Good 4 track with the rail out 9m and of course the headline act of the day is Winx in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes.
We’ve covered every race on the card below!
Best Bet: Race 2 #4 Ranier
Best Value: Race 9 #4 Bring Me Roses
These races are always very tough to assess given the entire field is on debut but I’m putting all my eggs in the basket of one particular Flemington jumpout, which contained #7 The Astrologist, #4 Memphis Rock and #5 Mercury The Astrologist won that jumpout and did it in good style, coasting to the line under a pretty firm grip. Wide draw no problem here down the Flemington straight and you’d think it’s the stable’s top elect given Luke Currie is booked for the ride. The stable won this race with Run Naan last year. Memphis Rock ran 2nd to The Astrologist in the jumpout and is certainly in the right stable to be very competitive in this race. The Lindsay Park team have a terrific record with two-year-old’s and Kerrin McEvoy is a notable jockey booking. Mercury was given a very quiet time of things at the back of the field behind The Astrologist, going to the line under no pressure. He’ll need the track to play fair in terms of horses being able to win on the inside part of the straight in the straight races, but the Godolphin team are flying and I’d expect him to run very well. Happy to have something on all three runners here, with $5.00, $9.00 and $8.50 available respectively.
As much as I hate backing Bowman when Winx is around, especially in races on the same day leading up to her running, #4 Ranier really does look hard to beat here. She’s still a maiden but has bumped into Nakeeta Jane and Miss Fabulass this prep. Those two fillies ran 3rd and 4th in the G1 Flight Stakes last weekend, beaten 0.2L and 0.3L. That form is superior to anything else in this field so if Bowman can give her clear running, she’ll take plenty of beating. #4 Planet Star has some solid blacktype form from last preparation and resumed with an easy kill at Ballarat. Virtual Insanity has come out of that race and run 3rd on Friday night at Moonee Valley so hasn’t exactly boosted the form but Planet Star had him covered by plenty. #9 Peaceful is a Kiwi filly who making her Australian debut for a very smart stable. Her only start over 1400m was a 2L Listed win back in New Zealand and she resumed with a Listed win over 1200m. Damian Lane is a positive jockey booking; my only query would be the fact Peaceful was beaten by Spanish Whisper this time last year and Spanish Whisper has failed to put the runs on the board since arriving in Australia. #8 Big Night Out was luckless last start and won on debut prior to that, but the form out of her debut win hasn’t necessarily been very strong. #2 More Than Exceed gets blinkers on for the first time and isn’t without a hope.
Three runners I’m mainly interested in here. #1 Crack Me Up was sound first up behind Dothraki in the G2 Bobbie Lewis down the Flemington straight over 1200m. His first up record is terrible so to be beaten just 1.2L was a solid effort. His second up record is much better with two wins and a 2nd placing from four starts, so expect sharp improvement today. Has to carry top weight but he’s still capable of winning and $6.00 is a reasonable price. #2 Sovereign Nation resumed with a good effort in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes behind Jungle Cat. He’s finished in the top two at five of his eight starts at this track and distance, including a win at this stage last preparation. #7 Sir John Lavery is the big query runner, making his Australian debut for the Lloyd Williams camp. He was a Listed winner by 3L over 1600m back in Ireland and also measured up in G2 company. Whether he’s sharp enough first up over 1400m after a 50-week break is a query but the stable is just starting to come into form, so I’d probably have a saver bet on at $6.50. Happy to back the top two at $6.50 and $7.00 respectively, with a saver on Sir John Lavery.
Wide open race with a full field of 16 set to go around. #5 Savoire bolted in over the track and distance last start after leading all the way. He starts from the same barrier as he did in that race so if he finds the front without too much pressure he’ll take some catching once again. Stablemate #4 Approach Discreet ran 3rd to Savoire last start after settling in the back half of the field. Weir has said all along this is a Derby horse so he’ll be ridden very quiet once again from the wide barrier and allowed to finish off. He started basically the same price as Savoire last start and if there’s a touch more pressure on up front, he could be the value at $9.00. #12 Savvy Oak gets the blinkers on for the first time and is a blowout chance at $34.
Winx. #1 Grunt would be my pick to run second, with #4 Kings Will Dream continuing to improve as he steps up in distance towards the Caulfield Cup. #5 Jon Snow was good last start and should improve once again up in distance third up, while #10 Youngstar wasn’t suited at all last start and jumps up sharply to 2000m but is a classy mare with plenty of good wins in store. Whether she can handle a 500m rise in distance and a high-pressure race is a big query. I’d think the $2.00 for Grunt to place and the $1.90 for Kings Will Dream to place are both decent bets.
Competitive race! #4 Dreamforce has some queries here but he’s won five of his last seven races and comes into this first up, where he’s won three and placed three from six starts. This is his first time in Melbourne, first time going down the Flemington straight and he’s had just one trial leading into this, but capable of overcoming those obstacles. #7 First Among Equals comes into this third up after being narrowly beaten by #1 Dothraki in the Bobbie Lewis last start. He’s got a good third up record and should be right in the finish. Stablemate #8 Quilista was disappointing behind Nature Strip last start but at her best, she’d be competitive here. She won by 4L over this track and distance last prep and if she bowls along out the front she’ll take some catching. #1 Dothraki won the Bobbie Lewis last start and actually meets a few better at the weights but he doesn’t win out of turn.
#1 Avilius is undefeated from three starts in Australia and can hardly have been more impressive in those victories. The stable have since come out and said they’re aiming him at the Melbourne Cup, passing up what looked to be a certain Group 1 victory in The Metropolitan last weekend. There are a few queries here, namely the sharp step up from 2000m to 2500m and barrier 1, which will see him strung up behind horses on the rail. With that said, last time he raced over this kind of distance he ran 2nd to Cracksman. He’s clearly the class horse in the race and deserves favouritism but he’s short enough in the market. #9 Jaameh looks the best value at $10. He’s undefeated over this track and distance, including a win last start. The best form for races at this distance are other races at this distance and he has definite claims at good odds. #10 Yogi jumps up from 1800m to 2500m but he’s been set for this race by the Weir stable and did win the Listed Port Adelaide Cup over this distance last preparation. He’s won at this track and distance previously and should give this a good shake. #11 Harrison gets blinkers on for the first time and can run well.
Weir holds a very strong hand here with the top three in the market and I’m actually tipping the longest priced one of the three in #2 Krone. She was good first up in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes at Moonee Valley and didn’t get a whole lot go her way last time out. Third up, up to the mile and Mark Zahra back on board. #5 Amphitrite comes off back-to-back wins at Sale and Flemington. Her victory last start was only in midweek BM64 grade so this is a sharp step up in class. #15 Verry Elleegant makes her stable and Australian debut for Weir after two wins from three starts in New Zealand. Some query over the fact all three starts have been on soft ground and she’ll get a pretty firm deck here at Flemington, but she looks like she will eat up the mile. #13 Pierro Belle wasn’t suited last start but as dominant the start prior. Not without a hope, while #16 Blonde Disposition could be the blowout at huge odds.
Great race to finish the card. #9 Savatiano beat subsequent G2 winner Shumookh first up before a luckless run at Newcastle last time out, where she was caught three-wide the trip. It was a very good effort to finish as close as she did so with a better draw today she can bounce back. #3 Invincibella is another Sydney mare that comes down for this race and she also beat a subsequent winner in Noire first up, before a luckless run at Rosehill behind Shumookh in that Group 2 race. She’ll need a better ride from Bowman today but he has the big Flemington track to find room so there’ll be no excuses. #4 Bring Me Roses went close over this track and distance first up last preparation and resumes with blinkers on today so it would be no surprise to see her run a bold race at $20. #5 Bella Martini goes forward and makes her own luck and was only narrowly defeated by I Am A Star last start, who then came out and won again at Moonee Valley last week. #13 Platinum Angel was huge first up at Caulfield and is well and truly up to winning this.
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