Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Anzac Day racing at Flemington on Saturday, April 25th.
We have a very nice eight-race card at HQ, featuring the Listed VRC St Leger (2800m). The track is a Good 4 with the rail out 10m. There’s a drop of rain predicted but shouldn’t be enough to drastically affect the track.
It looks a good betting card overall and we’ve got tips and comments on every race below!
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 1 #6 Sherlock Holmes
Best Value: Race 4 #11 Miss Clooney
RACE 1
I went close to declaring (6) Sherlock Holmes a moral here but it’s always a dangerous game to play with this stable this time of year. With that said, he does look very hard to beat and I’ll be having a good bet on him. He’s returned from a spell in good form, winning first up before finishing 2nd last start under the 60.5kg weight. Big drop in weight today with Fred Kersley’s clam bringing him down to 52kg. He’s won third up previously, has won his only start at this distance, and ran 2nd to Fanatic at his only start at this track. Unlikely he’ll lead with the Waterhouse runner engaged, but if he can get across and slot in behind it then he’ll go very close here. The biggest danger looks to be (2) Gallic Chieftain for Weir, who looks set to peak with five runs under the belt, including his past two over 2400m. Drawn well, big jockey change with Lane going on. Happy with $2.80 for Sherlock Holmes.
TIP: (6) Sherlock Holmes
RACE 2
(7) Tatoosh is another that looks incredibly hard to beat on current form. He’s undefeated for new trainer Will Clarken, notching four straight wins since returning from a spell. He’s the only horse in any sort of form here and whenever this stable bring them to Melbourne they generally walk away with the money. The biggest threat could be (4) Life Less Ordinary who looks ready to win third up after a promising run last start. Happy to take on (2) Mask Of Time, who would need to show a significant turnaround in form. He’s not shown much in two starts back from a spell. The value could be (6) Red Alto who represents a stable very much in form. He was no good on the soft track in Sydney first up, but that was a strong race, and he showed great improvement last start in Adelaide. $13 looks a reasonable price.
TIP: (7) Tatoosh / (6) Red Alto EW
RACE 3
Great race with two very exciting two-year-olds here. I’ve gone with (3) Hawkshot on top. He was absolutely backed off the map at Sandown last start but was given a horrible ride. He was trapped wide, snagged back, then went forward, tracked about six-wide around the turn, cantered up like he’d go straight past them, but got out-bobbed on the line after a very tough run. I think he’s potentially a very good horse. Jockey change today with Mott going on, think they’ll ride him conservatively from the barrier to ensure a repeat of last start doesn’t happen. $3.90 is a good price and he’ll be hard to beat. (1) Ocean Knight was very impressive on debut when we had him on top at double-figure odds. He came from the back of the field and put them away in a matter of strides in a performance that backed up an eye-catching trial leading into it. Barrier 2 might see him a touch closer, but he might need some luck. If the breaks come, he’ll show an electric turn of foot. There’s $4 available for him – I’ll definitely be saving him at that price. I’d be surprised if one of those two horses didn’t win, but (13) Sizzleme isn’t hopeless at $17 and definitely looks the value in the race. He’s been luckless in both starts this preparation and should have finished closer to Ocean Knight last start. There shouldn’t be such a discrepancy in prices between those two. Backing Hawkshot, saving Ocean Knight, something small on Sizzelme at each way odds.
TIP: (3) Hawkshot / (13) Sizzleme EW
RACE 4
Competitive race and a few worth mentioning. I’d be surprised if (14) Winkelmann started $6 which is its current price at the time of writing. This horse is clearly on top for me. Was somewhat of a surprise winner first up at Sandown given it had previously had three first up runs for zero placings. Her second up record is good, she’s down in the weights and draws perfectly in barrier 5. Should get a position on speed and she’ll be hard to run down. (11) Miss Clooney looks a good each way bet at $11. She’s did well to win at Ballarat last start and was a luckless 4th the start before that when beaten less than a length. Four of her five career wins have come over this distance range and she looks a live chance. (12) Near Queue was simply outclassed last start and didn’t really have much of a chance from how far back she was. Before that she was flying, and she should appreciate the big Flemington track. (3) Ma Jones had a few issues earlier this campaign, and her last start may have been one she needed. Back on a firm deck today and if she reproduced anything like her first up run she’d be super competitive. (1) Soho Ruby carries a big weight and has a wide draw but did carry 59kg to victory over this track and distance last start.
TIP: (14) Winkelmann / (11) Miss Clooney EW
RACE 5
Two I really want to back here and there’s every chance they dominate the market come jump time. (2) Think Bleue has won three of her past four races, including a Group 3 at Moonee Valley last start. She’s drawn well here and really does look the obvious horse to beat, but after a few bit the dust at Caulfield last weekend – including Cliff’s Edge from this very stable – I can understand the hesitancy in saying these obvious horses should be winning. The value and main danger is (9) Sheezdashing who just hasn’t had any luck all preparation. She finally got a clear crack at them last start but was still slightly hampered in the straight before motoring home to be beaten half-a-length by Savacool. Definitely a winnable race here and $7 is a good bet. (15) Okotoks has been luckless in his past two starts and gets a big jockey change with Dunn taking over from the likes of Caserta and Noonan. (7) Ancient Echoes another from the Weir stable that can pop up at odds. Taking on (3) Palazzo Vecchio once again today.
TIP: (2) Think Bleue / (9) Sheezdashing EW
RACE 6
The feature race of the day here with the St Leger over 2800m and it’s a wide-open contest. Going with the Weir runner (10) High Energy here at $7.50. He ran 4th last start in the Galilee Series Final, which was a tough effort after sitting three-wide without cover for the entire race. He’s had two 2400m races in preparation for his step up to 2800m today and you know Weir will have him fit enough. Damian Lane goes back on and he looks a genuine winning chance. One value runner is (6) Rezealient at $13. He broke his maiden two start ago at Benalla, where him and the second horse cleared out by 7L to the third horse. The horse that ran 2nd then came out and won his next start, while Rezealient ran 2nd in the Galilee Series Final last start, beaten 0.3L. Drawn sticky but looks a big player. (5) Wolfe Tone has the blinkers back on today and is drawn well. He’s been heavily supported in his past two starts. The most interesting runner is the Kiwi (17) Seven Falls who is currently the only emergency for the race. He’ll need a scratching in order to gain a run, but it might be worth having something on at $18 just in case he does get a run – I doubt that price will last if he gains a run. (2) Astoria has been the recipient of big support in early markets, opening around $3.50 before being backed into his current quote of $2.25. He drops back from Group 1 company after finishing 2nd last in the Australian Derby last start. He didn’t have a lot go right on that occasion but we did see Cliff’s Edge fail at very short odds after returning from Sydney last weekend. I wouldn’t be backing him at that price with someone else’s money.
TIP: (10) High Energy / (6) Rezealient EW
RACE 7
Probably the most open race of the day. (4) Iconoclasm goes on top. I think he’s a pretty smart horse. He broke his maiden at Ararat three starts ago by 8L, then did a great job to win in Adelaide, before a big effort last start when his chances were simply ruined by the wide barrier. The barrier is less of an issue here with the big track and the long straight, compared to Caulfield which is a tight corner and shorter straight. Lane takes over today and he looks a top hope and deserved favourite at $4. The value could be (10) Eagle Ridge who I backed first up when he won at good odds. His form from his debut campaign has turned out to be very sound, and the win first up with 59kg was also solid. Down to 54kg today, he’ll have to overcome the wide barrier which will see him go back in the field but he’s capable of stepping up to this grade at big odds. Currently $31. (2) Masculino returns from a spell here having won three of his five career starts. He bolted in first up over 1400m last prep so it would be no surprise to see him be very competitive here today over the same trip. (8) Rossman is another at double-figure odds that can feature, having won his past two, along with (9) Dancing Tycoon who has won two of its past three. Worth noting Oliver jumps off Dancing Tycoon to keep the ride on (12) Mr Storm. (13) Moet Rose also has claims.
TIP: (4) Iconoclasm / (10) Eagle Ridge EW
RACE 8
Another competitive race to finish the day. Had a hard time splitting (7) Maximus ($4) and (9) Brahmos ($7.50). Both lined up against each other three starts ago at Pakenham, where Brahmos got the chocolates and Maximus ran 3rd. Since then, Brahmos has won again at Mornington before running 2nd to (6) King River at Caulfield last start, while Maximus has gone on to win his next two. His win at Moonee Valley was only narrow but he did what no other horse on the night did in winning from the back of the field. He then bolted in by 5L at Cranbourne last time out. Neither has run down the straight before, but Maximus is trained here so it’s likely he’s had some jumpouts at the track before. Narrowly have Maximus on top but no surprise if Brahmos gets the better of him once again. The value could be (5) El Sicario, who is running well at present. He won in Adelaide three starts ago, followed that with a good 2nd behind Handsome Thief, and then ran well once more in Adelaide last start. Drawn wide here but that may be the place to be in the straight so it’s no issue whatsoever. $9 appeals. As noted, (6) King River won dominantly first up at Caulfield, but they noted post-race that he is best on wet ground, which he got on that day. He’s still got a good record second up and a great record at this distance, so it will be interesting to see if he can repeat that performance. There’s been trickle of early money for (14) Overstep at double figure odds. She’s already a winner at this track and distance which is a big tick and the money may suggest Waller has her primed to win fresh. Keep safe. (1) Milwaukee was disappointing last start but did win his only start over this track and distance three runs ago over Handsome Thief.
TIP: (7) Maximus / (5) El Sicario EW
QUADDIE
2, 9, 15
2, 3, 5, 6, 10
2, 4, 8, 9, 12, 13
1, 5, 7, 9, 14
$100 = 22.22%
