Thursday night footy has unfortunately come to an end in 2023, and although fans will have to wait and extra day to get their fix in Round 19, the opening fixture will certainly be worth the wait with Essendon set to take on the Western Bulldogs in a blockbuster at Marvel Stadium. We preview their Friday night clash and bring you our best bets below.
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AFL Round 19 Preview & Betting Tips
Essendon vs Western Bulldogs
Friday 7:50pm AEST, July 21st, Marvel Stadium
With top eight finishes on their minds, Essendon and the Western Bulldogs will lock horns on Friday night in the first fixture of Round 19. You can expect a packed house at Marvel Stadium for what should be an exciting match to get the weekend’s proceedings underway.
Essendon will be thankful they’ve been scheduled to play the first match of the round so they can make amends for last weekend’s performance ASAP. They were obliterated by Geelong down at the Cattery in what was easily their worst performance of the season.
The Bombers’ heavy loss against the Cats was a bit surprising consider they seemed to be on an upward trajectory heading into that match. In the week prior they were scintillating in an important win over Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, so maybe getting back to their home ground where they’ve won seven of their last eight is key.
Similarly, the Western Bulldogs would be disappointed with their Round 18 result against Sydney where they fell by two points. This was despite another dominant performance from Marcus Bontempelli (31 disposals, two goals) in the midfield, as well as Tim English (22 disposals, 60 hitouts) in the ruck.
The Bulldogs have been far from horrible in recent weeks but their close losses are starting to stack up. They’ve now lost two in a row and five of their last seven, and all five of their losses have been by less than four goals, including three by less than two goals.
A big reason for the Bulldogs’ losses of late is their leaky defence. They’ve failed to keep an opponent under 72 points in seven straight matches (2-5 win/loss record), whereas in the eight matches prior they conceded more than 70 points just once (7-1 win/loss record). That’s a worrying stat for the Bulldogs, especially coming up against a Bombers side that’s averaging over 93 points scored across 11 matches in Melbourne this season, which increases to an average of 104 points per match at Marvel (four matches played).
The Bulldogs have achieved more success in recent years and the media have higher expectations of them this season as a result, and I believe that’s why they’re listed as favourites for this match. However, considering their superior form at Marvel and their performance against the Crows two weeks ago, I’m more than happy to back the Bombers at the underdog price for a couple of units.
Essendon to Win
$2.40 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Jake Stringer & Peter Wright 2+ Goals Each – As mentioned above, I think the Bombers forwards can get on top here and hit the scoreboard in a big way. That brings the goal scorer markets into play and these two are at the top of the list for the Bombers.
Zach Merrett 25+ Disposals – Tagged out of it in his 200th against the Cats last weekend, but will return to form here against a Bulldogs side that doesn’t have anyone that can run with him.
Tom Liberatore 25+ Disposals – Just continues to put in superb performances. Has reached this mark in 10 of his last 12 matches.
Same Game Multi odds: $6.50 at BoomBet
