A cracking clash kicks things off on Sunday NRL in Round 3, as the hottest team in the league head to Parramatta to take on the Eels. Manly have wins over the Rabbitohs and Roosters to start the season, whilst the Eels are coming off a tight loss to the Panthers. This should be a great game of rugby league.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our NRL Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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- Guide to Betting on the NRL
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles
CommBank Stadium, Sunday 24th March, 4:05pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Sea Eagles managed their second straight win as small underdogs, as they got by the Roosters 21-14 in a tight contest at 4 Pines Park. The Sea Eagles dominated possession (58%), something they’ve managed to do in both their opening games. They were aided by 20 errors from the Roosters, but it would be hard to disagree with the premise the Sea Eagles were the better team against the Roosters. Recruit Luke Brooks continued his impressive start at Manly, running for 126 metres whilst producing a line-break, line-break assist, and try assist. With Tom Trbojevic looking back to his best, the Sea Eagles are a genuine top 4 contender this season.
As for the Eels, they took on western Sydney rivals the Penrith Panthers last week, and looked the better team in the first half, leading 18-16 at the break. Unfortunately, they couldn’t muster a single point in the second half, going down 26-18. Mitch Moses was clearly hampered by his groin injury, and they’ll be hoping he’s back closer to his best this week if they’re a chance against the high-flying Sea Eagles.
Match Preview
The Eels and Sea Eagles met twice last year, with the Sea Eagles winning at home in round 3 (34-30), as Manly closed 3.5-point favourites, covering by the hook. The Eels exacted revenge in round 16, beating the stuffing out of the Sea Eagles 34-4 Both teams were missing their Origin stars in this clash, so in my opinion nothing can be taken from this result. Looking back at the past four contests between these teams, they have all been lined relatively closely, in a clear indication they have been valued by the market as similar teams.
The Eels opened 3.5-point favourites in this clash, with money coming in on the Sea Eagles all week, with the Eels now sitting around the 1/1.5-point favourites. The way it’s trending, this matchup could easily close as a pick 'em. Like some other matchups this week, the early number is indicative of what the number would have been last year, but with teams in early season form like the Sea Eagles, the market is happy to bet on them here. I agree completely, with my number 3.5 based off last year's data, but this being far closer to a pick 'em with my current power ratings. I believe with Mitch Moses likely still not at 100%, the Sea Eagles should be slight favourites in this matchup.
As for the total, it opened 41.5 and has been bet up to 42.5. Again, I agree with this move, with my fair total for the game closer to 45.5 and given the Sea Eagles are the underdogs in this matchup, their team total appeals to me. As it currently sits around the 20/21 points, with the way Reuben Garrick is kicking, I believe the Sea Eagles to score 4 tries and cover the 20.5 is a great bet.
Sea Eagles (team total) over 18.5
$1.90 (1 unit)
Same Game Multi
Either team to win by less than 12.5 pts – These teams are evenly matched and have both started the season in solid form. This should be a tight contest from start to finish.
Clinton Gutherson (1+ try) – Gutho is yet to score a try this season, after scoring 19 last season. Has a great record against his old club, and he will be right up for this one at CommBank on Sunday afternoon.
Haumole Olakau’atu (1+ try) – Scored two tries in the Sea Eagles 34-30 win over the Eels last season and scored his first try of the season last week. The rampaging backrower is always a chance close to the line and looks great again to start season 2024.
SGM Odds: $14.44 at Neds
